Go Broke with a set, But what if he has aces

[Mercman572]

no reads on villain other than he has been very aggressive from all positions and has not had to show down many hands. he won with q3o twice but thats all i remember.

Paradise Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP3 ($69.75)
CO ($50.00)
Button ($21.75)
Hero ($92.25)
BB ($48.25)
UTG ($52.50)
UTG+1 ($48.75)
UTG+2 ($15.75)
MP1 ($134.50)
MP2 ($31.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif. CO posts a blind of $0.50. Hero posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO (poster) checks, Button calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero (poster) raises to $4.25</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $10.5</font>, CO folds, Button folds, Hero calls $6.25.

Flop: ($22.50) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $124</font>, Hero...?


only thing he might have that beats me here is AA. But then again I don't know how often people limp raise AA in mid position rather than early. should i lay this down bc of a probable set over set?

[chiachu]

i dont think i could find a fold here

[jtr]

I'm not saying I'd fold, but jeez, it really stinks of AA.

The limp re-raise was not a standard thing for him, right? And when you say he was aggressive, did that include semi-bluff pushing on a broadway board with a hand like AK or KK?

[lange101]

He could have done that same move with AK or JJ. Honestly, I'm going broke here every time. I usually go broke if someone has a set over my set. I only lay down a set with multiple people all in. I think it does smell of AA... but you'd also be surprised how many times it is not AA. Unless I have a read on the player and I am absolutely sure that he has a set of aces, then I call.

[pokerjoker]

im callin this one. My guess is

50%ak
25%aj or unlikely aq
10%nothing at all
15%aa

[Mercman572]

like you could probably guess, villain did in fact have AA, and he took it down with AA full of jacks vs my Q's full. Is calling here really +EV when he bets anouther 100 to me in what was a $30 pot? I know its a 70 into 100 call but still am I ahead here often enough to be making this call? I really have not been paying alot of attention to villain and PT can't act in real time since it's paradise (I'm beginning to think this is hurting EV). I really think the only hands that make sense here are 1: a total bluff, 2 AQ (unlikely), or 3 AA

[TomBrooks]

Push it, Baby. Don't even stop to think.

[Mercman572]

[ QUOTE ]
Push it, Baby. Don't even stop to think.

[/ QUOTE ]
push what? open pushing this flop would leave few mistakes for villain to make. pushing preflop would probably mean a call from better hands (AA-KK), and a fold from worse ones. I'm assuming this is a joke post

[gulebjorn]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Push it, Baby. Don't even stop to think.

[/ QUOTE ]
push what? open pushing this flop would leave few mistakes for villain to make. pushing preflop would probably mean a call from better hands (AA-KK), and a fold from worse ones. I'm assuming this is a joke post

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure he means calling for all his chips.

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Push it, Baby.

[/ QUOTE ]
push what?

[/ QUOTE ]I'm sure he means calling for all his chips.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, that's what I meant.

[whiskeytown]

if it happens, it happens -

I lost $540 in AC last weekend in 3 hrs - both times set UNDER set - once to slowplayed A's, once to T's that turned into quads -

it's so rare that it happens, but I just got hit twice that night - I think the odds are about 1/49 that two of you are gonna hit a set, and even less that his will be higher (depending on how high yours is - 88 wasn't too safe for me, TT was better) -

sometimes you're gonna hit a monster and lose money, but more often, you should be way ahead -

RB