Bayes theorem and plane crash

Doesn't DK's application of Bayes Theorem to real-world type scenarios (from his book Poker, Gaming and Life) apply to the plane crash on the 12th?


It was Veteran's Day, 2 mos and 1 day after the 9-11, same time of day, etc.


As airplane tragedies go, it was a bizarre crash. According to news reports, a tail has never torn apart from a commercial aircraft in mid air. This model of the Airbus was designed NOT to have an engine come off, but one fell off anyway (other commercial aviation aircraft are designed to do this intentionally in some cases).


I understand the case would be stronger if it had happened on the 11th, but I am curious if anyone has thoughts on this.


Thanks

You don't need to get this deep. Given an explosive US plane crash in these times, I would lay a price it is terrorism vs mechanical at the moment it occurs.

i was thinking of your articles about this when the news flashed about aa587...i think you are correct overall ds...apparently not here tho..gl

Would one be out of line to assume its a mathematically possibility that the crash was an accident?


I also think the same thing applies to the possibility that deadly Anthrax is being sent from Right-Wing American Militia type group(s).


The chances of these groups having an attack co-ordinated and ready to go the same DAY as 9-11 flies in the face of reason.


I'm surprised any clear thinking person could assume otherwise --we don't Bayes Thereom to connect the dots.


However, there is an endless, daily supply of rhetoric coming from the powers that be -- "reminding" us of the possibiity that the the crash was an accident and that the Anthrax attack has been instituted by McVeigh type groups.


Maybe we should send copies of that chapter in the book to those that would have us believe that water is no longer wet.

"Would one be out of line to assume its a mathematically possibility that the crash was an accident?'


No, one would not be out of line. As long at the probability is not zero, there is always a possibility. This also works in reverse : as long as the probability is not zero, it not an impossibility.


"I also think the same thing applies to the possibility that deadly Anthrax is being sent from Right-Wing American Militia type group(s)."


What "thing"? That it is possible? It is. Or that it is impossible? It isn't.


Perhaps you're trying to say something else.


"The chances of these groups having an attack co-ordinated and ready to go the same DAY as 9-11 flies in the face of reason."


Please explain why.


-Cyrus


(And this has nothing to do with me agreeing or disagreeing with what you say. I personally believe that the anthrax attack is insitigated by not by bin Laden's affiliates but by other terrorists operating from outside the U.S. and also that the recent plane crash was the work of muslim fanatics still operating in the country - but go ahead.)

"No, one would not be out of line. As long at the probability is not zero, there is always a possibility. This also works in reverse : as long as the probability is not zero, it not an impossibility. "


I misspoke. "nearly a mathematically impossibility"


"What 'thing'? That it is possible? It is. Or that it is impossible? It isn't".


thing == incidents of anthrax laced mail sent to the media and other public figures. Its pretty obvious what I meant by "thing".


in reference to my statement:

"The chances of these groups having an attack co-ordinate and ready to go the same DAY as 9-11 flies in the face of reason."


you say:

"Please explain why"


The powers that be and other self-proclaimed pundits contend that militia style, right wing-groups in the US might have had an anthrax "attack" ready and launched it on or days before 9.11.01.


To them, the timing of the anthrax attack and its proximity to the tragedies of 9.11.01 would have to be a "coincidence", especially since some of the letters were mailed on the 9.09.01


However, according to the DK application of Bayes Theorem, it is highly probable that the anthrax thing ("attack") was planned in co-ordination with the tragedy of 9.11.01 and NOT the work of right-wing, militia styled extremist groups.


Please don't ask me to define "tragedy".

Could be Bayer. They are making hundreds of millions with the antibiotics.