Checkraised on the flop with overcards

[The_Good_Dr]

3-6 HE with a kill in a live game. BB had been in the game for about 20 minutes and had not played many hands. I was EP2 with K /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif. EP1 called and I raised to get some weak aces to fold. Should I have just called to get more people in on the flop with KJs?

Folded to BB and he called, as did EP1. 5 small bets after the drop.
Flop is 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Checked to me and I bet. BB folds and EP1 now raises. With 8 small bets in the pot and two overcards and a backdoor straight draw, do I call?

[W. Deranged]

Go ahead and call. You will not have odds to draw see the river, though with 6 outs getting 8 to 1 with implied odds you certainly should see the turn. You will have to fold the turn unimproved.

[RiverTheNuts]

[ QUOTE ]
3-6 HE with a kill in a live game. BB had been in the game for about 20 minutes and had not played many hands. I was EP2 with K /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif. EP1 called and I raised to get some weak aces to fold. Should I have just called to get more people in on the flop with KJs?

Folded to BB and he called, as did EP1. 5 small bets after the drop.
Flop is 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Checked to me and I bet. BB folds and EP1 now raises. With 8 small bets in the pot and two overcards and a backdoor straight draw, do I call?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a pretty standard limp IMO ... you will make alot when people limp with lower spades or QJ or JT or KT, and will lose alot when you raise and only get called by AK/AJ/KQ...
Further... 3 betting gets you a freecard alot of the time, he would probably wait til the turn to raise a set

[callmedonnie]

you definitely need to see this turn.

[W. Deranged]

I would advocate raising pre-flop because your hand plays well against a variety of different field sizes and, unless dominated, will usually win much more than it's fair share. At small stakes many opponents will call with worse hands.

-Will

[BWebb]

[ QUOTE ]
Go ahead and call. You will not have odds to draw see the river, though with 6 outs getting 8 to 1 with implied odds you certainly should see the turn. You will have to fold the turn unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't have 6 outs. His overcard outs should be discounted, and in this case I think heavily. Fold the flop.

[W. Deranged]

Against only one other opponent I do not understand the need to do such heavy outs discounting.

If hero has outs in the 4 to 5 range on average, getting 8 to 1 and picking up a big bet on each of the turn and the turn if he hits the turn, our hero will be getting 12-1 effective on a draw that rates to hit about 9% of the time. I think this is a clear call.

Plus, folding the flop to one bet induces opponent's to take shots at you. This is like the one metagame consideration Ed Miller really gets into. But that's not the main reason to call.

[cmwck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Go ahead and call. You will not have odds to draw see the river, though with 6 outs getting 8 to 1 with implied odds you certainly should see the turn. You will have to fold the turn unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't have 6 outs. His overcard outs should be discounted, and in this case I think heavily. Fold the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about heavily. There's little chance you're reverse dominated, and the only time you're drawing dead is when he has a set. If MP can't check-raise with only top pair or a draw, then I might think about folding the flop, but in this case I'd call and fold the turn UI.

[BWebb]

I'd say at best you have 3 outs. There is a chance you are reverse dominated (j9 and k9 are possible), drawing dead and the redraws that the K & J of /images/graemlins/heart.gif bring. I'm not saying calling the flop is horrible, but it is a small leak that many players (myself included) make over and over.

As for the metagame reason Miller mentions, it doesn't mean to call the raise every time. It also only applies if your opponents are observant, something I rarely see at a live 3/6 table.

[W. Deranged]

I don't see how having a chance of being reverse dominated is equal to actually being reverse dominated.

To say we have 3 outs is to imply that 3 of our outs are dead ALL THE TIME.

What about A9 or Q9, for example???

Flush effects are muted in this short-handed situations. Redraws should be consider but note that that only takes away maybe .2 of an out, because that only kicks into effect when all of the following are true: we hit a heart K or J on the turn; another heart hits the river; villain has a heart.

Hero most certainly has more than 3 live outs on average and based on most logical range (particularly those containing top pair type hands) I would say 4.5 or 5 is a better average.

[BWebb]

Here are some quick calculations, tell me if I'm off. I made the following assumptions:

10% drawing dead =0 outs
10% reverse dominated=3 outs
10% flush draw for opponent=3 outs (4 outs on turn but have to dodge heart on river)
70% drawing completely live=6 outs

(.1)(0)+(.1)(3)+(.1)(3)+(.7)(6)=3.6 outs

Round that to 3.75 and you are about a 11.5:1 dog, pot is laying you 8:1. Even if my number are off and you do have 4.5 outs as you assume, you are getting 9.5:1 on your call. The pot is small, so fold. If the pot was bigger, I'd be more inclined to call.

[W. Deranged]

11.5 to 1 dog.

You'll pick up two more big bets on each of the next two streets, and maybe more if you hit.

That gets you to 12 to 1.

Which makes a call good.

Hitting and losing will be expensive and this takes that number down a little bit, but not that much.

So even given your estimates I think a call is okay.

And... on yeah.... your numbers don't add up. If hero has 70% chance of having all his outs live then .7 * 6 = 4.2 outs at least. (Your numbers should give 4.8 I think).

I don't mean to be too confrontational on this one; I do think it's close. But I think you have to be thinking very, very pessimistically to think that hero does not have enough equity to continue here.

[baronzeus]

This is live, so you can't fold. People remember that you folded to the check/raise on the flop and will take shots at you.

A good line is to flat call this check/raise every time, then mix up your game on the turn. Make him put in 2 bets when he's taking a shot at you, and either fold the turn UI or raise the turn improved.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
11.5 to 1 dog.

You'll pick up two more big bets on each of the next two streets, and maybe more if you hit.

That gets you to 12 to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

too optimistic IMHO

villain's most likely hand is a split pair or nines. When you hit your K or J on the turn, villain will have a five out redraw. in that case 10% of the time you hit you lose.

[ QUOTE ]

Redraws should be consider but note that that only takes away maybe .2 of an out, because that only kicks into effect when all of the following are true: we hit a heart K or J on the turn; another heart hits the river; villain has a heart.


[/ QUOTE ]

you are forgetting that the times you are outdrawn (not just a flush but two pair and trips), you have reverse implied odds and will end up paying a lot more than 8-1 for the ride. I think you lost this fact in your conversion to .2 outs, however that was done.


I would fold this

[BWebb]

Yeah, went the wrong way on my calculations. 4.8 is correct. As I said before, the fact that this is a small pot makes it a fold for me. It is close.

[The_Good_Dr]

Everyone's input and different outlooks are appreciated. On this hand, I thought for a minute and folded. I felt that I was not getting the right price to draw to my 6 outs if they were even live.