Game Theory and your opponents bluff-raising on the river in the 10/20

[aflaba temp]

In the 10/20 6-max games. How do you think your opponents bluff-raise on the river compared to what is the game theory quote?

Ex:
It's HUP. Hero bets the river. Including Hero's river bet, the pot is 8BB. Villain of course must pay 2BB to raise. The game theory quote is 2:8 or 1:4. The game theory qoute "tells" Villain to bluff-raise 20% of the time.

My question is, "Do you think your opponents at 10/20 bluff-raise the river more or less against you(!) than they would do if they played by game theory"?

More precisly, what do you think is the case for a otherwise unknown
A) Ordinary TAG:s
B) 2+2ers
C) 40/20 LAG:s
D) 50/10 Lapboys?

Feel free to answer even if you are not playing 10/20, but please specify your level.

[mperich]

Nobody bluffraises this much in the 10/20. But thats because nobody folds enough to make it profitable, so playing by game theory would be suboptimal here, since you need to adjust for your opponents tendancies to call.

Of course this would lead you to believe that you should be folding to river raises more, which is true in a vaccuum, but due to metagame considerations you can't fold as much as you should in this spot, since it is very easy to pick up on.

-Mike

[ISF]

I think you are really confused here. Game theory does not lead you to bluff raise 20% of the time here. It should lead you to bluff raise 1 time for every 5 times you have a hand that should raise this river which is obviuosly much less often then 20% of the time. I think your average tag does this much less and most of the other players a bit more.

[JrJordan]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your average tag does this much less and most of the other players a bit more.

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason why the average solid TAG does this less is because the typical opponent does not fold a correct amount according to game theory. Most players err on the side of calling down too much. Hence, we can increase our bottom line by taking advantage of their inability to fold by bluffing less and value raising more.

[aflaba temp]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you are really confused here. Game theory does not lead you to bluff raise 20% of the time here. It should lead you to bluff raise 1 time for every 5 times you have a hand that should raise this river which is obviuosly much less often then 20% of the time. I think your average tag does this much less and most of the other players a bit more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. That is what I meant. Thank you for the clarification. Just one thing. Isn't it 1 time for every 4 times you have a hand you would raise for value?

[JrJordan]

The ratio at this point is 1 to 4, not 1 in 4. Hence you should bluff raise the river once for every 4 times you raise for value, for a total of 5 raises.

[Robk]

i could be missing something but i think you guys have it wrong- optimal bluffing frequency makes your opponent indifferent between calling and folding. in this example the villain must consider your pot odds after the raise, not the odds hes getting on stealing the pot. since you will be getting 10:1 on calling a raise, he should bluff in such a way that if you called every time you would win one time in 11.

[ISF]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't it 1 time for every 4 times you have a hand you would raise for value?


[/ QUOTE ]
Yea

[aflaba temp]

[ QUOTE ]
i could be missing something but i think you guys have it wrong- optimal bluffing frequency makes your opponent indifferent between calling and folding. in this example the villain must consider your pot odds after the raise, not the odds hes getting on stealing the pot. since you will be getting 10:1 on calling a raise, he should bluff in such a way that if you called every time you would win one time in 11.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ehh... Ohh... That sounds correct. My bad, Thanks for correcting and explaining!


EDIT: So the Villain should only bluff _less than half_ the time I wrote in the original post. _Now_ do you think your opponents are bluffing against you(!) more or less than game theory "dictates"?

A) Ordinary TAG:s
B) 2+2ers
C) 40/20 LAG:s
D) 50/10 Lapboys?

E) How do you think the true bluffing frequency of opponents compared to the game theoretical bluffing frequency varies with varying pot size?

[SparkyDog]

Yeah, I was about to post this. So proper bluff raise frequency is very small in a game theoretic sense. When you consider that you'll only be raising when your hand is above the 40% threshold of the opponents calling hands, (1/p+2)*r where p = pot size and r = raising frequency it ends up being a very small number.

[Victor]

i cant remember ever stealing the pot on a bluff raise. i avg around 1 per session. i dont even know why i do it.

[marand]

[ QUOTE ]
i cant remember ever stealing the pot on a bluff raise. i avg around 1 per session. i dont even know why i do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have bluff raised 0 times on the river in 110k hands of SH. But I guess I will start to do so against 2+2ers now because I wrote this /images/graemlins/smile.gif