I'm confused about this one...

So. Tournament's about to narrow down to the final table - 3 tables started, 5 places paid. I'm short-stacked at my table, 2270 in chips, with blinds at 75/150. I'm in the small blind.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO (t5150)
Button (t6510)
Aidaen (t2270)
BB (t3040)
UTG (t2895)
MP (t3240)

Preflop: Aidaen is SB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Aidaen raises to t400</font>, BB calls t250.

Flop: (t800) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Aidaen bets t500</font>, BB calls t500.

Turn: (t1800) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Aidaen checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets t600</font>, Aidaen folds.

Final Pot: t2400

Ill-timed aggression on the flop? My thinking was that it was a scary board and he might be compelled to fold a low club or top pair, medium kicker.

Another thing I wonder about is my chip position relative to my bets - how should that have impacted my bets?

Any input is appreciated. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[danger_mouse]

I would have played it the same way. Tough luck.

[nightlyraver]

I would not have played it this way. First, you state no reads, so let's just call the BB a "typical" player. The first thing to look at is the preflop raise. I would actually seriously consider a push right off the bat. He is folding the vast majority of his holdings in such a spot so an open-push is easily +EV no matter how deep the stacks(see 2+2 article about pushing from the SB in NL tourneys). If I'm not pushing, I'm raising to t500, which will force BB to call a decent sized raise and this helps us to limit his range. Going to the flop, I'm probably not betting here. If he called with an A, he either made a pair and will raise or he has something like AQ. He probably is not calling with a worse hand and if he does have AQ with the nut flush draw, he is also raising. If he has a pocket pair, then he is also raising unimproved as he should feel pretty comfortable on this raggedy flop. Thus, the only reasonable hand that BB could have that we are ahead of AND would like to fold out AND will not raise us here is a hand like QJ or maybe JTs w/o a club. His call is extremely curious, but I think that probably means he has a monster. In any case, once he calls we are through with this hand. He needs to fold to the continuation bet more than half the time for this play to be reasonably profitable. Unless this player calls too often preflop and is very weak postflop, I'm not betting here.

I think you played it right. If you had more chips, you maybe could have tried a check-raise bluff right there to try and scare him away in the face of a scary board. But, in your situation, you simply did not have a good enough chips to make this move, and it was best to fold and wait for a better opportunity to move in....

[danger_mouse]

I don't really follow Nightly's post-flop analysis. How is the hero ahead of QJ and J10-- if he had a club, yes, but he doesn't.

I don't agree with Nightly's all-in pre-flop raise suggestion with 15BB and no antes. Maybe at 12BB, but 15? That's just playing scared, I think.

[Pulplife]

I like your line against a tight or solid player.

I think the pf raise to $400 is just right. You are raising for value here, and are way above the average hand. I would be happy whether he folds or called the $400.

The $500 bet on the flop is ok, but I would need to know that the big stack will lay his hand down if on a draw. If he is laggy, or has shown down speculative hands, I would probably not take the shot. With his stack he may be inclined to hang around if he caught a piece of the flop or has a flush draw.

The turn fold was all you could do, he was going all the way with this hand.

[nightlyraver]

My bad, didn't realize there was a J on board. In that case, the decision not to bet is easier. The only broadway hands BB could have that we are ahead of are AQ,AT,KQ and all of those raise if they hold a club. We also don't really mind if they stick around should they not hold a club. I feel that the risk of the flop getting checked and BB pairing up on the turn for a win does not justify a bet in this case.

The all-in preflop is undoubtedly a +EV play. I'm not going to explain it as the math has already been proven in the article I sited in my original post. It is quite certainly not "playing scared." However, there are reasons to pass on this +EV play. First, players who are risk averse may decline this play as they may not want to risk their tournament life should they get called. This is not a good argument, mind you. The better argument would be to pass on this +EV play and opt for a more profitable +EV play. For example, a hand like AT may not call for most of his chips from the BB, but the same player may call a standard raise; OR you may want a call from a player who is apt to lose a lot after the flop since they play poorly.

[danger_mouse]

Link please?

I'd like to read a post suggesting pushing AK all-in with 15BB. It wouldn't be the first time my dogmatic stance to something gets adjusted in the face of wisdom.

[TomHimself]

raise more pf IMO

[nightlyraver]

http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/issue6/Bragg0506.html

The article is mostly about short stack play. However, if you look at the charts along with the last few paragraphs of the article, you will see that open-pushing with AK from the SB is always profitable no matter how deep the stacks and no matter how tight/loose the BB is. The loser the BB the higher the variance but the greater the profit.

[dmk]

i think the article was meant for SNGs. additionally, although 1 play may be +EV, there can be other plays that have a higher EV.

[nightlyraver]

There is no part of this article uniquely adapted for SnG's. However, I do agree that one may choose to pass on this +EV play for a more +EV play as I stated in my OP. The fact remains that I would still seriously consider open-pushing expecting to just win the blinds since I'm also setting the BB up for later. Eventually he may call in a spot like this w/ a hand like ATs.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
i think the article was meant for SNGs. additionally, although 1 play may be +EV, there can be other plays that have a higher EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I love to open push, but the only way that could even be considered here is if you have a maniac in the BB who will defend with anything.

Also, pay more attention to your stack relative to the blinds more so than relative to your table. You still are comfortable in chips.

[danger_mouse]

Thanks for the link, Nightly. I read it, and while pushing AK with 15 BB is +EV, so is pushing AA. I don't think I'd do either. Now with that said, I've actually pushed with AK with more BB than 15, but that was a special circumstance against a player I knew was itching to call me with all kinds of cards.

[nightlyraver]

I'm not saying that you should always push, but recognize that it is a +EV move. The reason this is so against most reasonable players probably is not because you get called by a wide range of hands, it's because you don't get called so often. With 15BB's you can't afford to lose a pot, so scooping the blinds and antes is not a bad alternative to playing a flop. You might also get called by a hand like AQ (this actually occured in a WPT event and it was Scotty Nguyen who did the calling). You also may get called by a pocket pair, but a coin flip to double up when you're down to 15BB's and it's relatively late in a tourney is not so bad.

[A_PLUS]

Pushing AK here is just weak scared poker

[sirtemple]

If I follow this article correctly: I should push as SB anytime it's folded to me if I think the BB is tight(will only call w/ top 25% of hands).

I certainly don't do this now, and I am skepticle about this play. Is this a standard 2+2 line?

if you push everytime you will eventually go broke even if the BB ONLY calls with top 25%. So you still need to change it up as any pattern is bad in a tourny.

[WillMagic]

Bet bigger on the flop.

Seriously. I'm all in favor of 2/3 of the pot continuation bets...but this is a 3-flush board. If you had a jack you would bet big to protect your hand. Your half-pot bet stinks of weakness AND gives clubs the odds to call AND gives a flush draw the impression that it has fold equity by coming over the top. A pot-sized bet does none of these things.

Bet 750 on the flop. If you get check-raised all-in you have an easy fold, even getting 4-1 odds.

Will

[nightlyraver]

Although I generally respect you and your posts, I'm at a loss with this one.

Pushing in this spot is clearly a +EV play. The value of this play is calculated by multiplying the chances you will be called by the chances you win when called by the size of your stack (since in our case Hero has the smaller stack).

Let's say that Villian only calls with a decent pocket pair, AK and maybe AQ or AJ. We know that we're a small dog to any pair, a big dog to AA or KK and a big favorite to AQ or AJ. OK, so let's guesstimate that we're about 45% to win when called.

Next, we need to guesstimate how often we are called. Assuming we have not been leaning on the BB constantly and that the BB is a typical player, he's probably only calling about 20% of the time given the range mentioned above.

So let's put this all together...

This push is worth = (45% chance to win when called)*(20% chance to be called)*(15BB's sitting infront of Hero)

(.45)(.20)(15) = 1.35BB's
Note that if there are antes this number jumps to about 2.35BB's making the play even more appealing.

OK, so back to what you said, I don't see how this is a weak play at all. I'm not saying that I'm always making this play with 15BB's, but I am saying that you should only pass on the 1.35BB's (not including antes) if you feel that you can outplay the BB on the flop, making a 3xBB raise more profitable in the long run. All the time I see players call 3xBB raises from the BB and fold to most flop bets - clearly the 3xBB raise is more profitable in that spot. Against a BB that is not a weak player, the 3xBB raise becomes less appealing, especially when you absolutely cannot lose the pot in question.

Like I said, these reasons should be used to decide weather or not you push, IMO. I just don't see how this is weak, scared poker. Please explain...

[nightlyraver]

This post has no logical or mathematical basis.