Opinions on this satellite bubble push

[danger_mouse]

24 +2 Satellite on Full-Tilt. 7 players left. Top 5 get the ticket.

Villain and I had a history of the last two tables. On both tables, he was to my left. On both tables, the action was tight and I stole his blinds repeatedly. He also caught me on a continuation-bet bluff around 50 hands before. blinds 150/300 with 50 ante. I have seen him call down with 2nd and 3rd pair, particularly against me.

UTG folds
Villain UTG+1 (~7,000 chips) bets 900. A tad bit higher than standard for him. Table likes to fold, so this amount would likely get him the blinds.
Fold to me in BB (~8,000 chips) (Ac9c). I call, expecting I'm likely against two face cards or 77-AA.

FLOP: 4d6c9h. (Pot: 2,300)


I check into him. In my experience, he will continuation bet here 100% of the time (whether he hits the flop or not). He usually folds to a re-raise. He bets about 1,500.

I push.

Opinions?

[Rekwob]

what are the stacks of the other players?

[danger_mouse]

Stacks were roughly
5,000
7,000 (villian)
4,500
15,000
24,000
7,500
8,000 (me)

[scal78]

I'm curious to hear what people think about this.

At first you say you think he's got between 77 and AA. That's 4 hands that have you beat right now. You did not discount this when calling with A9.



So, my question is, if you think there is a 50/50 chance he may have 10-10 or higher why would you put your tourney life at stake? Especially, since your read on him is of a tight player.

Is calling here a bad play? This is where I struggle...if you call, you are left with about 12x BB. IMO, if you call the flop, and he comes out firing the turn, you have to put him on a big pair. If he checks the turn, you may be ahead. Either way, you can still get off the hand with good fold equity and only 2 spots to place. Is this a bad line?

Edit: Actually, you'd still have 18 BBs if you called the flop bet

[DemonDeac]

i like the push because you have a pretty good hand and (THIS IS KEY) have the villain covered in a satellite with 2 spots to go. you could very possibly get the villain to release a better hand in this spot.

[danger_mouse]

Scal. Just be be clear. I did not say he had AA-77. I said he either had two big face cards, or AA-77.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold to me in BB (~8,000 chips) (Ac9c). I call, expecting I'm likely against two face cards or 77-AA.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't disagree with the call. However, why don't you think villain could have AT-AK? This seems like optimistic hand reading.

The following excerpt from my guide explains this principle.


[ QUOTE ]
A. Reading Hands

I will give a couple of examples which will make clear how easy it is to read your opponents hands. Say you limp with A9o, someone raises and you call. If the board comes ace high, you can put your opponent on a pair of face cards and go allin. If the board comes nine high, you can put your opponent on a big ace and go allin.

Similarly, if you limp with 77, call a raise, and the flop comes with low cards you can put your opponent on AQ or AK and go allin.



[/ QUOTE ]
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=2586849&page=&view=&sb=5& o=&vc=1

[scal78]

[ QUOTE ]
Scal. Just be be clear. I did not say he had AA-77. I said he either had two big face cards, or AA-77.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you did that say that. My mistake. That changes my reasoning a little bit, but still curious to hear about opinions on calling the flop bet.

[danger_mouse]

I don't think my post was very clear, which is my fault. When I said two big face cards, I was definitely including AK-AJ (though admittedly, NOT A10).

[A_PLUS]

It depends on how the big stacks were playing. If they were content to fold there way in, Id rather keep stealing blinds, letting the other guys play the big pots. I think your play is unquestionably +CEV, but survival is really important here. Doubling your chips might add 20% to your $EV. So I would have folded preflop.

[Brad F.]

First you say this:
[ QUOTE ]

On both tables, the action was tight and I stole his blinds repeatedly. He also caught me on a continuation-bet bluff around 50 hands before. blinds 150/300 with 50 ante. I have seen him call down with 2nd and 3rd pair, particularly against me.

[/ QUOTE ]

And then you say this:
[ QUOTE ]

I check into him. In my experience, he will continuation bet here 100% of the time (whether he hits the flop or not). He usually folds to a re-raise. He bets about 1,500.


[/ QUOTE ]

Those two make no sense. You think that he will call down with 2nd or 3rd best pair but he will fold to reraises??

I fold A-9 preflop here. Your only hope at a tight table like this is that he has K-Q, 77 or 88. Otherwise you are in bad shape.

Since you called, and with the hands you put him on you have to get your money in. I don't agree with the 'any two face cards' comment. I don't expect to see K-J or Q-J here if he is as tight (or loose??) as you say he is. I think it's about 50-50 really on the flop whether you are ahead or not without looking at a poker calculator. But a push is definitely better than a check/call.

The fact that there are two stacks lower than you here and five spots get paid argues even more for a fold preflop. Just too marginal of a play here in a satellite.

Brad

[danger_mouse]

Yeah, that's kind of what I thought afterward. Problem was, this was my first satellite tourney and I hadn't really wrapped my mind around the strategic differences from it and regular MTTs. It worked out in the end, but I don't love my play here.

[Roman]

Fold preflop, there is no need to risk your stack with top pai r here. Just keeps stealing.

[danger_mouse]

Yeah, Brad, I know it seems a bit odd, but that's the way the guy played. If he suspected that you might be continuation betting, he'd call flop, possibly turn bets. However, if he was continuation betting himself, he'd fold to a re-raise. He displayed this behavior several times for each example.

I do, however, agree that my pre-flop call with A9 was suspect.

[Brad F.]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, Brad, I know it seems a bit odd, but that's the way the guy played. If he suspected that you might be continuation betting, he'd call flop, possibly turn bets. However, if he was continuation betting himself, he'd fold to a re-raise. He displayed this behavior several times for each example.

I do, however, agree that my pre-flop call with A9 was suspect.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, your read makes more sense put that way.

Ya, the PF call was marginal at best, but I think you got a flop you were looking for and should be willing to go to the felt with it. You certainly weren't calling with A-9 only to hit an ace right?

Brad

[Erik Blazynski]

I don't have an opinion on the push YET. With the A-9 you need to ask yourself "do I need to play this hand?" There is one player in the pot and he raised, you have about 25 BB left, your 2 away from the money, and out of position. I am not really sure how you would answer this question, but my answer would be NO, I dont need to get involved. Let him take the blinds and be done with it.

But that didn't happen, so lets evaluate the post flop situation.. You flop top pair, top kicker. This is one scenario where acting first is a benefit, You throw out a pot sized bet to figure out where you're at. Instead you check and he throws out a continuation bet of about 1/2 the pot. So what does that mean? Either he has a larger PP than your 9, and he's looking for a call or he has 2 over cards, and he's just hoping you fold. How much do you like that situation? I don't much care for this situation becasue I am blindly calling or raising. Apparently you like it enough to push your stack. I definetly think that your overbet of the pot here is a mistake. You really are looking for information about his hand, you missed your opportunity to get the info first and you've gotten him more committed to the pot, which I don't really think that you want. If you raise the size of the pot you can accomplish the same result and if he does anything but fold you have to be done with the hand.

Well there is my opinion, thanks for asking..

-Erik

[Erik Blazynski]

Are you saying that depending on the flop you then put your oponent on a hand that you can beat, so you go all in?? This is a great rule.... Please tell everyone you know...

-Erik

[danger_mouse]

Erik, better read the link, before you say anything more. ;-)