Awkward bubble hand at 20s with 44

[gildwulf]

Table Table 13944 (Real Money) -- Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: Dealdoer (1825)
Seat 4: M20173 (3760)
Seat 8: The_Jopker (1560)
Seat 9: KAOTICK1 (855)
M20173 posts small blind (150)
The_Jopker posts big blind (300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to The_Jopker [ 4c, 4s ]
KAOTICK1 raises (855) to 855
KAOTICK1 is all-In.
Dealdoer calls (855)
M20173 folds.
The_Jopker folds.

What is your line of thinking on this? My fold was because a) Dealdoer had me covered and b) I wasn't super comfortable checking it down with a pair of 4s and c) this would leave me with a pretty decent stack for ITM...

[tigerite]

But if the UTG guy doubles up, you are quite a long way off ITM. Even with the one who's called 855, he'll still be on 1k chips presuming he loses.

Having said that I think the fold is the right play here to keep your FE alive, but not for the reasons you've mentioned.

[gildwulf]

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Having said that I think the fold is the right play here to keep your FE alive, but not for the reasons you've mentioned.

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=

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c) this would leave me with a pretty decent stack for ITM...


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[tigerite]

Yeah but also for the bubble if it continues, is what I was saying.

[pooh74]

I dont like calling two all ins with 44 almost...EVER. Forget metagame for a moment and think about what hands you have a real advantage over? None...you might be facing 4 overs here or an over pair and two overs. Whats the chances that one has say A3 and the other AK? you're at best a 50% and thats the ceiling here and will be the exception I am sure. Factor in only 1 over pair and you dont have a prayer. You need to put both opponents on pratically specific hands like I did above to be getting the #s to call here.

Future FE etc... is always a consideration, but here, its a pure math problem where the #s are so stacked against you calling it becomes a no brainer.

[gildwulf]

I'm confused. Your first paragraph said fold and I'm reading your second paragraph as a call. Explain?

[SCfuji]

kaotick is in a position where he is very eager to steal with his stack and the bb coming up next. dealdoer is volunteering to knock out kaotick.

if he does thats good news for everybody. if he doesnt, hes the one that will be sweating with a 1k stack and the blinds coming up.

let them fight over 4th.

It's a definite fold IMO.

1) 44 is lousy three-handed here
2) dealdoer might not just check it down if he likes the board, you're vulnerable to getting moved off this
3) unless you spike a 4 you're likely going to be checking this all the way
4) depending on your read of dealdoer his coldcall could be a sign of strength
5) if you play, and lose, and shortstack triples up, now the next hand you're in a situation where you basically have to steal from the SB with your crippled stack sandwiched between the two large stacks. And that's IF you get a chance to steal, b/c if chip leader in seat 4 knows what he's doing he's going to push next hand with a mighty wide range.

[proell]

you're not likely to have the best hand when all is said and done vs 2 opponents. I think you need to fold this. Also, why does Dealdoer just call off nearly half his chips? If this is a solid player I think you need to be wary of a strong hand here looking for you to make the call.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm confused. Your first paragraph said fold and I'm reading your second paragraph as a call. Explain?

[/ QUOTE ]

Future FE etc... is always a consideration, but here, its a pure math problem where the #s are so stacked against you calling--- it becomes a no brainer.

Yeah, that sentence was worded poorly...sorry. I meant the issue of calling is a no brainer in that you should clearly not call. "Folding here is a no brainer" it should read.

sorry

[psyduck]

come on man, this is an easy fold. whatever happens, you'll still be a favorite to make the money.