Corrales/Castillo Over bet in Oct.

[Indiana]

Not sure if Tuds has already recommended this one, but I sure do like the 9.5 over for Corrales/Castillo @ -130 in October. I believe that Corrales fought the wrong kind of fight the first go around and Goosen knows this. He will more than likely attempt to work the angles in the second fight and this will lead to a longer fight. The first fight was 10 rounds with nothing but nonstop brawling. Now, with much to prove both of these fighters come back with more info and experience with each other. This ones going at least 10.

Indy

[Tuds75]

Indy,

I actually recommended Castillo OVER Corrales. I guess I need to watch my words. The over is not that great a bet. Corrales has history of being knocked down. He was knocked down twice in one fight against Casamayor and once in the other. Mayweather put him down 5, FIVE (not a mis-types) and Castillo put him down twice. He takes big punches and Castillo can deliver them. Castillo has 46 KO's in 52, an 88% career KO percentage. Corrales has 33 KO's in 40 fights, and 82.5% career KO percentage. Those are high numbers not matter the weight, but for a lower weight class those number are AMAZING!

Some Notable's Career KO Percentages:
Joel Casamayor: 63%
Juan Diaz: 50%
Ricky Hatton: 74%
Kotsa Tszyu: 80%
Floyd Mayweather: 67%
Arturo Gatti: 77%

The point is these guys have KO power. Their power could cancel each other out, but the over is just not laying a very good price @ -130. The under is not a very good price either. I just think Castillo should of won the first fight and now he is going to be even more focused in this one. I can't belive him and Corrales are both at even $. I guess the odds makers are over looking Castillo or believing the hype around Corrales. Hopefully as the fight nears the odds will move, one way or another. The safest bet for the this would be to use any money you would to bet on it to order and then using the rest of your betting allowance on something nice for the wife, so she will be buttered up and let you have your buddies over to watch a great battle. All the bets are just not laying great odds either way, but this fight will be great to watch. Spend on the PPV, you won't be disappointed.

Too bad the Chi-Juarvez fight is not happening. Chi got injured and had to pull out. That was a GREAT over bet. It is almost like taking money out of my pocket.

Vargas/Castillejo is also an over bet that should not be missed. This fight was put together to help Vargas back into the postion as a top fighter. Vargas is suppoded to win and he won't be KOing Javier in this fight. I am just waiting for them to post some odds on the over/under.

Did you hear Vlad Klit is fighting Sam Peters on Sept 24th. Both sides want it. I am excited for this fight. 2 young HW punchers, plus this is Peters' chance to show/prove to everyone that he is the HW of the future.

Tuds

[Indiana]

Tuds,

As always, much appreciation for your comments. We are going to have to agree to disagree on the Castillo over. Corrales was tough and relatively sturdy up until the end of the 9th in their first fight. Now, after they watch the tapes there is absolutely no way that Goosen is going to let Corrales come out and fight that same slugging-style fight with Castillo. This is why I think that the fight cannot be shorter than the first time around. If I had to take a fighter to win I would also take Castillo (on a decision) but I think the price sucks to take an actual winner. Also, I would consider any fight with Mayweather an outlier that should not be used in making decisions about this upcoming fight. After all, we are talking about one of the best fighters in the world with PB Floyd. Anyway, I have already laid 300 on the over.

With Vargas, I would be concerned about that over as well. He has had chronic back issues and he looked like he was in pain in his last fight. The price would have to dictate the betting for this fight.

Indy

[Indiana]

Oh yeah, Klit/Peter would be great. I would take Klit because I believe that he could keep his distance and box Peter. Peter is a real hard hitter if he can corner you but I don't think that he will fair as well against a decent boxer/mover like Klit.

Indy

[ThaHero]

Not gonna get involved in the Castillo/Corrales discussion but I also think that Vitali would beat Peters, for what it's worth.

[Tuds75]

Remember:

The Odds are what makes a bet good or not. Example: -260 on the Hopkins/Taylor is not a good bet, but once it came down to -185, all of a sudden it became a VERY good bet because the price is right.

My point with my last point is was meant to say the same about the Castillo/Corrales fight. I am not against you Indy, in thinking the fight will go the distance, i am just making a statement that each fighter is at finishing opponets (evident by BOTH fighters in the first match-up). I would not be surprised at all if the fight went over. 9.5 is a tough number. Both fighters have a history of late round KOs, so the over bet could mis by a round. The only bet I can see making is on Castillo to win, but again the price is not right. Maybe if Castillo by KO or Castillo by Dec. will lay a nice price, but we will have to wait and see on those types of odds.

Vargas' back is a problem, but he is "gutty" enough to make it through 12 rounds. He did it against Joval and you could see him in pain and Vargas is definatly one tough boxer (see his fight agaisnt Tito Trinadad). So expect him to finish the fight unless he is ABSOLUTLEY unable to move in ring.

Wlad/Peters is going to be a HW fight like we havent seen in about 4-5 years. Large Tall men with elite power and the ability to box. I got to think Peter will take it in this fight. He is getting better each fight, he has a very good trainer (Lou Duva) who is grooming him to be HW champ. People seem to find faults in his game, but all he does is KO people and recently it seems like Wlad has a glass chin with him being KOed by Brewster and Saunders. He was not only knocked down, but he his haead was scrambled by both and Peters has more power then Brewster and Saunders. I wouldn't put a lot of faith in Wlad's jab. He quit using that effectivly years ago. Once Saunders beat him he has become a completly different fighter. If Wlad stands in fron of Peters he will be KOed and see Wlads last few fights I don't see him not standing in front of Peters. He had Manny Steward training him for a while and he didnt learn anything from him, actually Steward quit on Wlad because he didnt like what he got from Wlad and Steward turned Lennox into the great champ that he was because he taught Lennox a jab.

Tuds

[Tuds75]

One thing I forgot to put in my previous post is a small bet on the fight ending in a draw could be a nice bet that really pays off.

Another thing for Castillo to win, if Castillo wins a great fight they (shotime) can set up a rubber match ala Gatti/Ward

Tuds

[ThaHero]

What an error on my part. He's actually fighting Wladimir? Ok yeah I like Peters in that one.

[TheJackal]

Wlad should win over Peter. Come on guys, who has Peter really fought? He really hasn't proven himself to be an elite hw, although the division is very weak. Vlad is inconsistent, and his loss to Sanders and Brewster show he might not have the greatest chin. But he does have power and he is a good boxer, plus he has been fighting top level fighters since 2000. I think he beats a green Peter.

[Indiana]

Tuds,
I am sorry. Did you mean Vitali or W. Klit vs Peter? Obviously Peter would destroy W. Klit but not Vitali...I got confused. I would never recommend Vitali's brother against Peter. I thought you meant Vitali because who would ever put his brother back in the ring after his last few fights?

Indy

[Indiana]

VITALI should beat Peter, his brother has 0% chance to beat Peter.

Indy

[Tuds75]

I just want to make sure everyone is on the right page:

Wladamir Klitschko was going to fight Calvin Brock on 9/24. The card was going to include a Sam Peter v. Sam Samil. One thing lead to another btween Wlad and Peter and they ended up gettting to fight each other on 9/24.

Lets get this straight, Peter is going to beat WLADAMIR on 9/24. WLADAMIR has been exposed in his last few fights. WLADAMIR has a weak chin and is KO prone. Everyone should bet Peter to WIN and the under. Peter to win is the better of the two bets because even though WLADAMIR has a weak chin, he still has the ability to go the distance or at least into the later rounds. PLUS the price on Peter will be GREAT. My guess -120 to -140, shoot maybe the odds makers will continue to give Sam Peter very little credit (case in point -117 on the under in his last fight).

What are everyone's thoughts on some of the other many upcoming fights (Rahman, Mayorga, Vargas, Juarez, Goloata)?

Tuds

[Indiana]

100% agree. I would bet on myself to beat W. Klit. Peter would be a no brainer.

Indy

[Indiana]

Tuds,

The reason I got confused is because Vitali hasn't fought in a while and I thought Manny Steward said that his bro would need to retire after that last ass whoopin. Why would W. Klit reenter the ring? He truly sucks. Hollyfield could beat him.

Indy

[Tuds75]

Actually Wlad has had a couple of fights after his loss to Brewster. He beat DaVarryl Williamson who is going to fight Chris Byrd and he also KO some other guy. So I guess he is on the comeback trail.

But yes Manny Steward took over traing Wlad thinking he could make him the next Lennox Lewis. Then Wlad gets crushed against Brewster and Manny says Wlad should retire. I got to go with Manny's judgement on this one because he knows a thing or two about boxing.

Tuds

[Indiana]

Honestly,

Even the thought that Wlad would step back into the ring makes me throw up in my mouth. But then again, if Chris Byrd can put on the gloves and make $, why not Wlad? Hell Tuds, why not you and me. The HW division is so full of fish right now we could open an aquarium.

Indy

[TheJackal]

I think you guys are going to be wrong about Klitschko. If Peter doesn't knock him out in the first three rounds, he will lose the fight for sure. Klitchsko has beat some top heavies (Byrd, Mccline, Mercer (yes an old mercer I know), Barrett, and Williamson). He looked good in his last fight with Castillo who was undefeated and Klitschko dominated him.

Peter on the other hand has not beaten any heavyweight worth a damn. He also has shown he doesn't have the best technical skills in the world. He's going to have to pull a Sanders and catch W. Klitchsko in the 1st couple rounds to have any shot, because he will not win against the technically superior fighter. Also Klitchsko is going to have a 6-7 inch reach advantage, and if he keeps Peter at the end of his jab for the 1st couple rounds, he will most likely KO peter in the mid-late rounds. Klitchsko I do believe to be flawed, but I don't think Samuel Peter will be able to beat him. In fact there are only 3 heavies I think that can beat Klitchsko right now, that would be Vitali, Rahman (let me just say most likely), and Brewster.

[Indiana]

Dude,

Wlad Klit is the next Golota. He's got a great physique but he's just another weak white boy with no heart. I would bet against him no matter who he fought.

Indy