When to Push Short Stacked

[betgo]

Paradise $40 MTT 13 of 70 players left. 10 places pay. Blinds 300/600/50. I am one of shortest stacks with T3000 5xBB. I can probably fold into the money, but that is not my goal, as I would get blinded down pretty bad.

7-handed it is passed to me with the following hands on successive deals: 65o in CO, Q6o with 4 players to act, and A3 with 5 players to act.

I didn't play 65o or Q6o, but pushed with A3o. Is this right? Generally A3 is dominated if called, but in this situation I figure I might be called by a K or Q high hand or by the BB without much.

The wound up getting called by 99 and busting out.

Which if any of these hands would people push with?

[sekrah]

6-5 in the cutoff would have been my move.

A-3 with 5 to act would have been my LAST move.

[danger_mouse]

Unless my reputation is laggy, or the blinds include a big stack call station, I'm pushing 65o when folded to me. The A3o push is not great. I'd do it if it was all I had to choose from, but it looks like you may have let a few opportunities slip by. But, then again, I wasn't at your table.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
A-3 with 5 to act would have been my LAST move.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you fold A3 in 2nd position? It seems the alternative is to push UTG or usually defend the BB getting 5-3 pot odds.

It is true I need to push into more players in early position, but the earlier my position, the fewer hands before I have to make a move.

[davidross]

I'm pushing all 3 of those hands unless there is some circumstance you haven't told us, like the BB stack ensures a call.

[A_PLUS]

Once I get blinded down to 5xBB, I am pushing the first time it is folded to me, this is questionable in a structure without antes, but here, I think it is definitely correct.

Look at it this way. Your opponents most likely have a set calling range for your push regardless of your position. It may tighten somewhat when you are in EP, but with 5xBB, probably not that much.

Lets give them a fairly generous range of
AA-44, AK-A6, KQo, KTs.

Against this range, A3o has a <2% equity edge vs 65o. But the chance that someone does get a hand that will call you goes up by >10% for each player left to act.

You really need to improve the relative strength of your hand by a large margin to account for the lack of position here.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pushing all 3 of those hands unless there is some circumstance you haven't told us, like the BB stack ensures a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

In isolation, I agree. But I dont know about the 2nd if the first works, and the 3rd is out if 1st 2 work.

[RiverDood]

This is a great quiz -- because it reinforces a lesson that takes most of us a year or two to learn. Pushing from the short stack isn't about waiting for halfway decent cards. It's about waiting for halfway decent position.

In most cases, any two from the CO, as first to act, is better than A-rag from EP. It takes some poise and discipline to pull it off with rags in a live game -- but online it should be pretty straightforward.

You have an M of 3 and are very desperate. If you were the first to enter the pot, you should have moved all-in with all three of these holdings. With such a low M, you are more concerned with the first in vigorish, than your actual cards. You should only be folding the very worst hands here. This may seem aggressive, but conservative play will not save you at this point.

[Pulplife]

[ QUOTE ]
You have an M of 3 and are very desperate. If you were the first to enter the pot, you should have moved all-in with all three of these holdings. With such a low M, you are more concerned with the first in vigorish, than your actual cards. You should only be folding the very worst hands here. This may seem aggressive, but conservative play will not save you at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is your real name Dan Harrington? Glad you joined the forum Dan!

[danger_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have an M of 3 and are very desperate. If you were the first to enter the pot, you should have moved all-in with all three of these holdings. With such a low M, you are more concerned with the first in vigorish, than your actual cards. You should only be folding the very worst hands here. This may seem aggressive, but conservative play will not save you at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is your real name Dan Harrington? Glad you joined the forum Dan!

[/ QUOTE ]

Geez, Pulp, the guy might simply be repeating Harrington, but he's still right AND contributing to the discussion.

[Pulplife]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have an M of 3 and are very desperate. If you were the first to enter the pot, you should have moved all-in with all three of these holdings. With such a low M, you are more concerned with the first in vigorish, than your actual cards. You should only be folding the very worst hands here. This may seem aggressive, but conservative play will not save you at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is your real name Dan Harrington? Glad you joined the forum Dan!

[/ QUOTE ]

Geez, Pulp, the guy might simply be repeating Harrington, but he's still right AND contributing to the discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know, just giving him a hard time.

This happened to me right after I read HOH1, and responded in a similar fashion.

He gave good advice and hopfully has fairly thick skin.

Pulp

[A_PLUS]

Well, its about time people can quote a book and give legit NLHE MTT advice at the same time. The two used to be pretty much mutually exclusive

[yabastid]

I'm pushing 65o in the cutoff given these 3 choices. You have first in vig and 3 to go with probably two live cards. I hate A3 from EP- you're gonna get called and a good chance your behind. I'd take any two with position over a weak ace from EP any day.

yabastid

[nath]

I'm definitely pushing the 65, and probably the Q6, although if I push both of those I fold the A3. I don't know if this is merely anecdotal, but my experience has been that when you push three times in a row people will be itching to pick you off.

Do not push early position with Ax. You will almost always be up against it, unless your table is ultra-tight. (It took busting out at the second-to-last table twice in a row with Ax suited from up front before I learned that.)

[TakenItEasy]

I'm surprised that no one asked for the stack sizes of the blinds in each case. The first thing I do before I get any cards in this situation is to scan the table looking for consecutive weak stacks that might avoid confrontation until after the bubble. I would rate blind stack sizes at least as important as position.

I should elaborate: pick on a large stack BB and he might call just to send a message, pick on the short stack and he might call just because he had no choice. Look for stacks that are somewhat comfortable to get in but will be on the bubble if they loose.

[CardSharpCook]

fold, fold, fold.

65o is the only one that is close. Riverdood made a good post.

Don't be one of those players that is willing to surrender as soon as they slip below 6BBs, you can afford some patience.

If I were grading these pushes:

65o: C+, good use of position and rags - work on hand selection, exercise patience.

Q6o: F, demonstrates lack of understanding of position and card value. Student needs to excerise patience. Student needs to study hand values. Recommend time with pokerstove.

A3o: D+, Demonstrates lack of understanding of position. May over-value aces.

CSC

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
fold, fold, fold.

65o is the only one that is close. Riverdood made a good post.

Don't be one of those players that is willing to surrender as soon as they slip below 6BBs, you can afford some patience.

If I were grading these pushes:

65o: C+, good use of position and rags - work on hand selection, exercise patience.

Q6o: F, demonstrates lack of understanding of position and card value. Student needs to excerise patience. Student needs to study hand values. Recommend time with pokerstove.

A3o: D+, Demonstrates lack of understanding of position. May over-value aces.

CSC

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, you have some splanin to do.

IMO, 1 is auto, 2 is close, 3 is fold.

1 will only change if BB is extremely large/small or very good/bad in a sense that their calling range is very wide here.

#1
With 5xBB, it is very tough to give a calling range that isnt 'any two that beat me' that makes this -CEV. Given the fact that there are antes means that a successful push gives us 7-8 BB and a full load of F.E. Your starting requirements will increase for the rest of this orbit, coupled with the fact that we may not see an unopened put until UG. Even if we know that BB has ATo and will call this isnt horrible equity wise. I have no problem winning the blinds 30% of the time and taking a 40/60 for 10+ BB the rest.

I think you take a slightly -CEV play here (even though I think #1 is probably +CEV), given the fact that you are unlikley to see a higher play which wil offer you a better spot to get your chips in.

Every hand, you lose an ante.
So next hand to be the same expected number of total chips as this one, we will need:
-A hand big enough to compensate for one more potential caller, plus make up for the ante we just lost
-A pot that is unopened.


It is more the oppoertunity cost of not pushing being so big here over the benefits of pushing

[CardSharpCook]

Well, first of all, it isn't 60/40, run the numbers. You're looking at 2:1.

So, lets run it:

Fold here and you have 5BB

Push: 30% of the time you steal the blinds and take 2BB = 7BB
push and called: happens 70%. 66% of the time you are out. 34% you are called and win, now have 11BBs.

So, .3*7 +.66*.7*11 = 7.2BB

So.... looks like you are right. Given your "get called 70% of the time, this is a push."

CSC

[nath]

Let's not lose sight of the fact that there's 1250 in each pot and hero only has 3000. Personally I like to start pushing sooner, but since you didn't I think the 65o is a must. Also, if the table is playing tight due to fear of busting before the money, I would open up and start pushing a number of hands / situations until I got a stack I was comfortable with bringing to the final table.

[betgo]

Say I get called 2/3 of the time I push and I am a 2-1 dog if called. Then I gain 1250 chips when I steal and lose 600 when I am called, so this is EV even. Since with any of these hands I probably get called less than 2/3 of the time and I am less than a 2/3 dog if called, any of these pushes should be EV+.

[A_PLUS]

My point is you will be very hard pressed (maybe impossible) to pick a calling range that makes this -CEV.
Either you will be stealing the blinds a large enough % of the time, or you will have high enough equity.

So to a question I have had a hard time getting people to answer. Will you fold this knowing that it is an unexploitable +CEV Situation?

I will run the A2 hand tomorrow, that may be closer than we think.