AQ facing raise from big stack on bubble (Party $11)

[Raiser]

I'm 90% sure this is an easy push, but I want to make sure as my bubble play is pretty weak.

Here were my thoughts when I played this hand. Please let me know if they are good thoughts or bad thoughts and any other things I should have considered before I made my decision.

1) I know button will almost certainly call my push, but he has a lot of chips and could be raising a lot of hands here so AQ has a very good shot of being ahead.
2) I'm not even close to guaranteed to make the money, so what I gain in doubling up far exceeds the loss I'd take if I bust.
3) A stop-n-go was considered, but I decided that my hand was good enough that I don't really mind if he calls. I'm likely at worst a coin flip, but stand a good chance of dominating him.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero (t1090)</font>
UTG (t911)
<font color="#C00000">Button (t4889)</font>
SB (t1110)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t400</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1090 (All-In)</font>

[Maulik]

clear push given your stack size relative to the blinds.

[Superfluous Man]

These are all good thoughts, though I don't even consider the stop n go. I see AQo in this spot, my eyes light up and the letters P-U-S-H force every other coherent thought out of my brain. AQo is just that good in this spot.

You should be 100% sure it's a good push.

[durron597]

Clear, easy push. This is what we mean when we say play for first and not 3rd (and why the ideal finish distribution has as many 4ths as 1sts with fewer 2nds and 3rds).

[ChuckNorris]

Now this would be the purrfect place for a stop'n'go. I think you want them to fold even hands you dominate, not to mention KT and some others. Winning this without a showdown would really be great with these stack sizes.

[tigerite]

I don't like the stop and go with a hand as strong as AQ.

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the stop and go with a hand as strong as AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

For this reason and the fact that a push on the flop will likely offer 2:5:1 and not endanger villan's stack

[ChuckNorris]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the stop and go with a hand as strong as AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]



For this reason and the fact that a push on the flop will likely offer 2:5:1 and not endanger villan's stack

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly because of these huge odds you do everything you can to try to make villain fold. Because they have odds to call your push preflop even with anytwo, you should push the flop, where it's not as unlikely for them to fold. What's so difficult to understand about this? What do we loose by doing the stop'n'go?

[Nicholasp27]

deciding on push vs stop-n-go is based on FE, not cards...do u think u'll have more FE pushing or stop-n-going

if u push or s-n-g here, he has the same odds for calling

so maybe a missed flop will cause him to fold, making an s-n-g good here

or, maybe he's a good big stack so he's raising pretty much any 2 to get u guys to fold since 3 even stacks on bubble...and if he doesn't wanna get caught with rags he may fold here

most likely neither option has much, if any, fe...but it's a judgement call (and based on read of opp as well) about which has more fe

does he raise every hand?
has he ever folded to a reraise?

[morgan180]

i don't think a stop-n-go is the right play here - your go will be roughly the size of the pot and the odds you're laying the chip leader will be almost irresistable to him. its a clear push here.

[Superfluous Man]

[ QUOTE ]
What do we loose by doing the stop'n'go?

[/ QUOTE ]
When he folds, you lose the extra T690 you would have gotten when he calls preflop and doubles you up.

[Nicholasp27]

u actually want a call here?

i'd want a fold...get the 700 money in the pot and run...

i don't want a coinflip for another 690 chips if i can get 700 free

[Superfluous Man]

[ QUOTE ]
u actually want a call here?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes (unless he has AA-QQ or AK /images/graemlins/tongue.gif).

Here's one way of looking at it. If I get the guy to fold, I'm up to T1590 with the other stacks at 911, 1010, and 4489. This means, if (more like when) I steal from one of the two shorties and happen to lose I'm down to less than 3x BB, and I'm effectively 4th with a slight hope of getting into 3rd. On the "bright side," if I get into a confrontation with the big stack and double through, we're only just about tied in chips.

Now, if I double up (and, given the opponent's very wide stealing range, I'm a favorite to do so), I'm suddenly at T2280 with the other stacks at 911, 1010, and 3799. When I steal from the shorties and lose, I'm still over 6x BB, and still in very good position to get 3rd or 2nd. Even better, if I get into another confrontation with the big stack and double through him, I now have more than half the chips in play and can run over the field, maximizing my chances of getting first.

Granted, a stop n go may (and that's a big "may," given the pot odds on the flop) get your opponent to fold a small/medium PP on the flop. So you avoid a coinflip; big deal. But I think a stop 'n' go is also likely (perhaps even more likely) to make him fold hands you dominate. Ax, KQ, or even Qx, could all fold on an ungly flop when they would have called preflop and you would have gotten your chips in as a huge favorite.

The bottom line is that with AQo you have such a big edge against his range that you have to push it preflop. If you lose a coinflip or run into AK or get sucked out on, tough break; you weren't exactly a lock to get ITM anyway.

(Disclaimer: I don't have SNGPT, especially not here at work, but I'd love to see the numbers run with a very loose range for the raiser; intuitively I think I'm right, but SNGPT has spat in the face of my intuition before. Maybe I just like to gambool.)

[tigerite]

You can't run it with SNGPT, it only allows for calling all-ins or going all-in yourself first to act.

[Superfluous Man]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't run it with SNGPT, it only allows for calling all-ins or going all-in yourself first to act.

[/ QUOTE ]
Oh, I had no idea. My mistake.

I guess someone could do some sort of ICM stuff by hand, but that would still be pretty nebulous as you'd have to assign call/fold percentages on the stop n go and all that. I still think I'm right, but I am open to someone proving me wrong. Especially by doing some sort of mathematical analysis that I am too lazy to do (hand-waving is so much easier).

[yabastid]

I can't move my slider to the right and click allin fast enough. I would take this everytime in this situation. I definitely don't want villian to fold here. I want him to call my push PF. His range of raising hands is huge. If I get drawn out or he has AA,KK,QQ,AK so be it. Also, most Party 11 players who have a big stack can get ridiculously tight after losing a hand like this. Plus next time you push into the blinds you'll get a lot more respect. Push preflop.

yabastid

[docodan]

AQ offsuit is basically 65% against any two cards. ICM says fold gives you .1871, push, call, &amp; win gives you .2945, and push, call, &amp; lose gives you of course 0. You end up with .1914 for pushing, so it's better than folding...but I don't think it's good enough that you would rather have a call than a fold from the chip leader.

ICM says .2634 for a push that gets a fold. That seems best to me. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif