View Full Version : Commerce 9/18 #2: 22
jason_t
07-28-2005, 07:25 AM
A few orbits at a loose/passive table. My image is good.
Preflop: I am CO with 22.
UTG limps, UTG+1 limps, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, I call, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.
Flop: T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif
Checked to me, I....
Piiop
07-28-2005, 07:28 AM
Meh, I'd check and not worry about it. A loose-passive table isn't one where betting this flop is going to be very good for you. Someone probably has a T, someone probably has a flush draw, someone may be slow-playing a 4, tons of outs against you, I don't think it's a good bet. But, I would turn a 2.
I'd check. If the board were rainbow or the T were an 8 I'd swing to betting. FWIW I don't think betting is bad really, it's close.
jason_t
07-28-2005, 07:33 AM
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I'd check. If the board were rainbow or the T were an 8 I'd swing to betting. FWIW I don't think betting is bad really, it's close.
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Why does rainbow change it?
Piiop
07-28-2005, 07:34 AM
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Why does rainbow change it?
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I THINK YOU ALREADY KNOW THE ANSWER TO THAT.
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I'd check. If the board were rainbow or the T were an 8 I'd swing to betting. FWIW I don't think betting is bad really, it's close.
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Why does rainbow change it?
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OMG can someone ban jason_t?
ArturiusX
07-28-2005, 08:10 AM
Cool hand. I check here, but I could imagine a bet working in this situation. We have to push people off hands that could easily outdraw us, I guess thats what it comes down too. I dont know if you can do it in such a big pot.
Nick C
07-28-2005, 08:46 AM
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Meh, I'd check and not worry about it. A loose-passive table isn't one where betting this flop is going to be very good for you. Someone probably has a T, someone probably has a flush draw, someone may be slow-playing a 4, tons of outs against you, I don't think it's a good bet. But, I would turn a 2.
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This seems like a sensible way of looking at it to me.
W. Deranged
07-28-2005, 09:30 AM
Jason,
Against the entire table, I see the chances of you taking this down with a bet as basically non-existent, and by that I mean not even close to the 5-6% or whatever it is to be worthwhile.
Even when you are lucky and happen to be ahead here there are exactly 2 turn cards you want to see and you'll likely have to dump the hand to any reasonable aggression on later streets.
Rainbow board might be better for obvious reasons ( /images/graemlins/wink.gif ) but I honestly don't even think then a bet will win often enough to be worthwhile.
As suggested by a previous poster, I think the best way to proceed is to check the flop with the plan of turning a 2 no matter what.
Bet. Every hand that folds is making a big mistake.
W. Deranged
07-28-2005, 10:07 AM
Sfer--
This seems to me to be one of those Fundamental Theorem exceptions. With all the overcards hero is certainly up against, and the possible flush draws (including the backdoors), even though hero's opponents are making mistakes it seems that those mistakes are not likely to benefit hero but instead those profits will be distributed among the other players in the pot. In many cases, particularly if many players with live/unshared cards stay in, it would seem that this distribution will actually be unfavorable to our hero. (and again, this is all assuming that he is already ahead)
I don't see much point in encouraging mistakes from our opponents that are not particularly likely to benefit us. There seems to be basically no chance this hand ends without a showdown; we can't force everyone to make mistakes here that will win us the pot.
BigEndian
07-28-2005, 10:22 AM
Easy check, betting here with this many opponents will get you castrated.
- Jim
BigEndian
07-28-2005, 10:25 AM
That doesn't make your bet correct since very few loose passive will fold. Against this many loose passives an unimproved 22 is going to take this pot down on the river about 1-100 times.
- Jim
It certainly makes the big streets easier to play, and I'm not prepared to give up on a 5 BB pot what has obviously missed everyone, which is what checking and hoping for a 2 resigns you to.
meep_42
07-28-2005, 11:04 AM
Check. Overcards aren't folding in this big pot and you're a significant dog to the field. (even if you narrow it to 2 players, you're a pretty big dog.)
-d
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It certainly makes the big streets easier to play, and I'm not prepared to give up on a 5 BB pot what has obviously missed everyone, which is what checking and hoping for a 2 resigns you to.
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Can you try to quantify what you give up by checking? I'm not so much interested in the number, but I think the assumptions you have made to justify betting are interesting and I'd like to hear your reasoning for them.
Basically I want to know how many outs you think you will fold against your hand with a bet. I also want your opinion on how this will influence your implied odds.
EDIT: This may require more time than you can devote while you're at work, but try to get to it some time.
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Bet. Every hand that folds is making a big mistake.
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I want to bet here too, and I'll add this as well...
Wouldn't it be great if it got you a free look at the river to spike a 2 against all these loose passives?
Sarge85
07-28-2005, 11:18 AM
Fantastic Table....
Bet does nothing here IMO. Overs are coming which is your big threat. Barring the case ten.
Check it through, spike a two. (do you have 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif?)
If it's checked to you on the turn, I bet and fold to a raise. (Corallary to this is that if it's checked to your player on your right - I'm more inclined to raise in that siutation and go from there. As you said your image is good. Pot is large and I'm not worried about saving bets)
Same action on river (depending on who and how many are still in pot and the Turn and River card)
Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Sarge85
07-28-2005, 11:23 AM
Slightly O/T
Why a 9/18 game? Why not $10/$20? with the limits being so close?
Is the SB/BB structure more appealing at 9/18? or just personal preference?
Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
jason_t
07-28-2005, 11:26 AM
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do you have 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif?
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This doesn't matter.
jason_t
07-28-2005, 11:28 AM
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Slightly O/T
Why a 9/18 game? Why not $10/$20? with the limits being so close?
Is the SB/BB structure more appealing at 9/18? or just personal preference?
Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
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There is no 10/20 at Commerce. 9/18 is a three chip games and 10/20 would be a two chip game. The former gives the image of larger looking pots over the latter and induces more action.
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It certainly makes the big streets easier to play, and I'm not prepared to give up on a 5 BB pot what has obviously missed everyone, which is what checking and hoping for a 2 resigns you to.
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Can you try to quantify what you give up by checking? I'm not so much interested in the number, but I think the assumptions you have made to justify betting are interesting and I'd like to hear your reasoning for them.
Basically I want to know how many outs you think you will fold against your hand with a bet. I also want your opinion on how this will influence your implied odds.
EDIT: This may require more time than you can devote while you're at work, but try to get to it some time.
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I don't have Pokerstove at work. I'll also point out that there are other benefits like if the button folds and we can decide whether we want to peel a river or bet again on the turn and take a free showdown, and, most importantly, our hand is unplayable unimproved on the turn if someone/anyone bets in front of us. That plus the fact that the pot is 5 BBs, I'm willing to spray 1 SB for nearly any improvement in equity.
BigEndian
07-28-2005, 11:35 AM
Same could be said of spiking on the turn and toss in an extra street of betting with a little seasoning.
It's also worth pointing out that with this many opponents one of the 4s can also be out. Most every bad player in the world will check with a 4 here and this many opponents.
Not that fearing the four is the reason to not bet, it's pretty moot. It's the notion that a bet with this many loose opponents will get many folds that matter with two streets to come that is the bad idea imo.
- Jim
Sarge85
07-28-2005, 11:37 AM
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do you have 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif?
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This doesn't matter.
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Opps, your right, paired board, my bad.
Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
That plus the fact that the pot is 5 BBs, I'm willing to spray 1 SB for nearly any improvement in equity.
Actually, isn't it NINE BB?
That's why I agree that the 1 sb investment to possibly see the river for free is a good idea. This is huge and they are a bunch of loose passives. If the 2 magically appears on the turn, swell, if it doesn't, you may get to check it through for a second chance at a pot that may well be over 10BB at that point.
Big pots are worth fighting for.
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That plus the fact that the pot is 5 BBs, I'm willing to spray 1 SB for nearly any improvement in equity.
Actually, isn't it NINE BB?
That's why I agree that the 1 sb investment to possibly see the river for free is a good idea. This is huge and they are a bunch of loose passives. If the 2 magically appears on the turn, swell, if it doesn't, you may get to check it through for a second chance at a pot that may well be over 10BB at that point.
Big pots are worth fighting for.
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9 will do nicely.
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Sfer--
This seems to me to be one of those Fundamental Theorem exceptions. With all the overcards hero is certainly up against, and the possible flush draws (including the backdoors), even though hero's opponents are making mistakes it seems that those mistakes are not likely to benefit hero but instead those profits will be distributed among the other players in the pot. In many cases, particularly if many players with live/unshared cards stay in, it would seem that this distribution will actually be unfavorable to our hero. (and again, this is all assuming that he is already ahead)
I don't see much point in encouraging mistakes from our opponents that are not particularly likely to benefit us. There seems to be basically no chance this hand ends without a showdown; we can't force everyone to make mistakes here that will win us the pot.
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I'm not planning on winning without a showdown. The point is that 78s might fold on the flop for 1 SB, but will never fold after that if it turns a pair. If I currently have the best hand, every hand that folds improves my chances of winning and I'm willing to try to induce that given the pot-size. That plus the turn/river play easier arguments.
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I don't have Pokerstove at work.
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I don't really want you to answer me with anything involving Poker Stove. I can input hand ranges on my own and I don't think that's a particularly good metric for the situation at hand.
I'm looking for more of what hands you think are folding and how you are effecting the value of your hand on later streets. You hurt your implied odds by betting the flop but you're gaining value by folding hands that are drawing live against you. How do you think those two factors interact with each other. I think this is an important question to answer.
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if the button folds and we can decide whether we want to peel a river
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Of course, but you are making a similar decision now that is just as important.
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I don't have Pokerstove at work.
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I don't really want you to answer me with anything involving Poker Stove. I can input hand ranges on my own and I don't think that's a particularly good metric for the situation at hand.
I'm looking for more of what hands you think are folding and how you are effecting the value of your hand on later streets. You hurt your implied odds by betting the flop but you're gaining value by folding hands that are drawing live against you. How do you think those two factors interact with each other. I think this is an important question to answer.
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if the button folds and we can decide whether we want to peel a river
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Of course, but you are making a similar decision now that is just as important.
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I don't see why my implied odds are important here.
Michael Davis
07-28-2005, 12:32 PM
J.A.Sucker post (sort of maybe similarish...) (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=mediumholdem&Number=942584 &Forum=f4&Words=-re%3A&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=942584&Search=tru e&where=bodysub&Name=229&daterange=1&newerval=2&ne wertype=y&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#Post94258 4)
-Michael
Entity
07-28-2005, 12:34 PM
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J.A.Sucker post (sort of maybe similarish...) (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=mediumholdem&Number=942584 &Forum=f4&Words=-re%3A&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=942584&Search=tru e&where=bodysub&Name=229&daterange=1&newerval=2&ne wertype=y&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#Post94258 4)
-Michael
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I think the flop textures are such that a lot less hands are peeling on this flop than on that flop.
Rob
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I don't see why my implied odds are important here.
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You're implied odds are worse by betting. So you're giving up some value there which you are attempting to gain back by clearing out hands drawing live against you. I think it matters quite a bit to figure out how much you're giving up in relation to how much you're gaining.
Maniac, player behind us, and board texture changes it methinks.
Shrinking the bets that go in on the turn and river seem like good things to me give my hand, my outs, the size of the pot, and the size of the field. Sorry, I'm a little distracted but genuinely confused.
jason_t
07-28-2005, 02:42 PM
Preflop: I am CO with 22.
UTG limps, UTG+1 limps, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, I call, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.
Flop: T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif
Checked to me, I bet, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds.
Turn: 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif
Checked to me, I check behind.
River: 2/images/graemlins/club.gif
SB bets, MP1 calls, I raise, SB calls, MP1 calls.
I show 22, the SB shakes his head and flashes what looked like T5c, MP1 flashes a single A and MHIG.
PokerBob
07-28-2005, 02:44 PM
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It certainly makes the big streets easier to play, and I'm not prepared to give up on a 5 BB pot what has obviously missed everyone, which is what checking and hoping for a 2 resigns you to.
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Trips checks this flop at these limits all day.
I'm wowed by the number of folds on the flop.
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I'm wowed by the number of folds on the flop.
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Sometimes people notice when a nit bets into 9 players.
meep_42
07-28-2005, 02:47 PM
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I'm wowed by the number of folds on the flop.
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Me too. Though I was going to post that I had been swayed to a bet on the flop because the pot was worth fighting for.
Jason - why did you check behind the blank turn? Were you calling a blank river (say, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif)? (I assume you're not overcalling, though)
-d
bakku
07-28-2005, 05:57 PM
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Shrinking the bets that go in on the turn and river seem like good things to me give my hand, my outs, the size of the pot, and the size of the field. Sorry, I'm a little distracted but genuinely confused.
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it's ok, i bet too.
Entity
07-28-2005, 08:02 PM
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Shrinking the bets that go in on the turn and river seem like good things to me give my hand, my outs, the size of the pot, and the size of the field. Sorry, I'm a little distracted but genuinely confused.
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it's ok, i bet too.
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Me three?
DeathDonkey
07-29-2005, 01:26 AM
I also bet the turn (?)
-DeathDonkey
jason_t
09-29-2005, 10:10 PM
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I also bet the turn (?)
-DeathDonkey
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Really? Can you explain?
How often do you play at Commerce Jason? i play 9/18 there a lot and i also go to ucla. i look really young and wear a wpt cap. say hi sometime. btw 9/18 totally rocks.
PokerBob
09-29-2005, 11:00 PM
i like a pf raise here.
For me the turn bet was mandatory. I mean betting the flop was the biggest thing, now when the 6 comes on the turn your bet could fold a lone 6 and other's that hung on on the flop with overs could see this as a time to put you on a 10 and fold.
Also if your going to call a blank river than why not put it in now.
pauliewalnuts
09-30-2005, 12:47 AM
It has already been raised. However if it hadnt, I wouldnt necessarily see a problem with one here at this obviously loose table.
paperboyNC
09-30-2005, 12:53 AM
Check the flop. You are almost always behind. You won't get better hands to fold and when you are behind you are drawing very thing. I know that pair boards are great for bluffing, but not in this game.
Check the flop. Fold to a turn bet.
Luv2DriveTT
09-30-2005, 01:07 AM
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I also bet the turn (?)
-DeathDonkey
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No... you joking right? How is betting this turn going to protect the hero's hand?
Jason was correct to be the flop, its what I would have done, but I do admit its marginal if he also would have decided to check.
TT /images/graemlins/club.gif
DeathDonkey
09-30-2005, 01:35 AM
Well I barely remember this old thread but I just reread through it...I bet the turn because I might have the best hand, and people peel a ton on the flop and certainly don't need a pair to see the turn and I don't think I'll ever fold the best hand this way.
-DeathDonkey
Aces McGee
09-30-2005, 10:40 AM
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Turn: 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Checked to me, I check behind.
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Against two players (one of whom, the preflop raiser,looks to be on overs), I'd probably bet this very safe turn card and take the free showdown. I'm willing to be convinced otherwise, but it seems like giving a free card here is dangerous and counter to the point of the flop bet.
-McGee
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