wicked 10/20 250bb downswing + stats checkup

[DDBeast]

I made a similar post earlier but things have escalated. Some background- played online for little over a year and worked my way up to 10/20 which I've been playing since march (66,828 total hands). I've been a 3bb/100 winner for the 1st 50,000 hands at 10/20 and now I've been losing all month (16,828 hands) for a downswing of roughly 250bb. Luckily a few big MTT scores have pulled me through. I'm going to hit the books, literally, I'm so pissed I need to hit something. I've never had a swing even remotely close to this one. And now a word from PT...

vpip 17.56
pfr 8.7
total AF 1.58

went to SD 28.67
won $ SD 57.32

att to steal blinds 31
fold sb to steal 81
fold bb to steal 71
vol put in sb 22.93

folded to river bet 50% (seems high)

[bottomset]

looks like you are too passive, and don't get to showdown enough

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
vpip 17.56
pfr 8.7
total AF 1.58
went to SD 28.67
won $ SD 57.32
att to steal blinds 31
fold sb to steal 81
fold bb to steal 71
vol put in sb 22.93
folded to river bet 50%

[/ QUOTE ]
All signs point to weak/tight.

The bolded stats stand out as saying that you're folding a lot of winners (or potential winners).

[DDBeast]

What should these numbers be? I agree that I've haven't been going to many showdowns but it seems like I'm always getting 3-betted when I raise AJ or my AK never improves and stuff like that and I have little option, but I guess I'll try to see more showdowns....thanks

[SeaEagle]

Is this the entire 66K hands or just the 16K during the downswing? Could you post the stats for whichever one this isn't?

[droolie]

Most downswings that are due to variance are usually accompanied by low W$SD (usually under 50%). When it is high like yours it is a sure sign of weak tight/ scared play. Players are taking shots at you, you need to adjust and make it to more showdowns.

As a matter of fact your W$SD shouldn't be quite that high unless you are on a major variance driven upswing.

[hobbsmann]

[ QUOTE ]
What should these numbers be? I agree that I've haven't been going to many showdowns but it seems like I'm always getting 3-betted when I raise AJ or my AK never improves and stuff like that and I have little option, but I guess I'll try to see more showdowns....thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

How often do you showdown AK unimproved? In my short experience this hand is showdown worthy in most party 10/20 full games.

[DDBeast]

These are stats for all 66,000. How can I show just the last 16,000?

[DDBeast]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What should these numbers be? I agree that I've haven't been going to many showdowns but it seems like I'm always getting 3-betted when I raise AJ or my AK never improves and stuff like that and I have little option, but I guess I'll try to see more showdowns....thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

How often do you showdown AK unimproved? In my short experience this hand is showdown worthy in most party 10/20 full games.

[/ QUOTE ]
Despite being aggressive, on the turn and river there's still usually 2 or 3 other people still in the pot and Ace high is rarely good.

[666]

go to showdown more often, you are losing a lot of value here because people are bluffing you out. used to have the same problem. your % won at SD will decrease but you will win more money overall

Under the right-most tab (think it's preferences) you can specify your limits, your sites, and the date range. Just browse through your sessions, find when you started losing and put in that date range. Your main tab will now just reflect those stats.

[DDBeast]

Thanks here's the last month and 1st 50k hands separated.

Last 16k hands

VPIP 16.04%
VPI in SB 20.82%

fold sb to steal 88%
fold bb to steal 75%
att steal blinds 36.27%

went to SD 26%
won $ SD 58.31%
fold to riv bet 55%

AF 1.78

BB/100 -1.82

1st 51k hands

VPIP 18.04
vpi in sb 23.6
fold sb to steal 79.31
fold bb to steal 70.42
att to steal blinds 32

went SD 29.42
won $ SD 57
fold to riv bet 48.5

AF 1.53

bb/100 2.37

[shant]

You need to defend your BB more.

Your VPIP can be higher but thats not a big deal, what is your PFR?

You should steal more blinds.

Your WSD% is too low. It should be 4-5% higher I think.

My AF is 2.8 and my Folded to River Bet is 39%. Those are from a smaller sample of hands than yours, but I think you need to be more aggressive and make more calls on the river.

[DDBeast]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to defend your BB more.

Your VPIP can be higher but thats not a big deal, what is your PFR?

You should steal more blinds.

Your WSD% is too low. It should be 4-5% higher I think.

My AF is 2.8 and my Folded to River Bet is 39%. Those are from a smaller sample of hands than yours, but I think you need to be more aggressive and make more calls on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

PFR for all hands is 8.7%
Thanks for the tips but AF of 2.8 seems obscenely high

[shant]

Check out the stats post of winning players found here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=smallholdem&Number=2129882 &Forum=All_Forums&Words=-Re%3A&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=2129882&Search=tr ue&where=sub&Name=24328&daterange=1&newerval=5&new ertype=w&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#Post212988 2).

3/6 and 10/20 play similarly, so the same stats should apply. You'll find that an AF of 2.8 is slightly higher than normal, but that can also be attributed to a good run and a small sample. Your AF is still too low.

[chief444]

Is your aggression factor including or not including the flop? Because if it's not including the flop your's is obscenely low...especially considering you seem to fold too much.

I think you need to play more hands from the blinds as well. Folding your BB to a steal 70%+ in what is probably a fairly aggressive game normally is way high.

A big downswing over 16k hands is no big deal. 16k is nothing. Maybe you had an upswing over your first 50k. Maybe both.

[Iamafish]

Yeah, isnt that swing normal?

Also, I dont wanna hijack this thread, but 3-4BB is very possible at 5/10 and 10/20 right?