REVIEW: Hand 119 QTo

[GrunchCan]

HAND 119 :
Preflop: Hero is CO with T, Q.

1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, Hero calls

I raise here. I want the button, and I want the initiative. I want 'em bad! Only good things can happen by raising. Well, more good than bad.

[Abelardo]

I think this deppends on what type of player UTG+1 is, if he's reasonable he's going to have you dominated a lot of times.

[MrWookie47]

But if he's terrible (not too unlikely), raise it up. MicroPoster, any PT stats or real reads on UTG+1?

[GrunchCan]

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I think this deppends on what type of player UTG+1 is, if he's reasonable he's going to have you dominated a lot of times.

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UTG+1's holding is of no concern to me when I raise here. The button, the SB and the BB are the targets, here. UTG+1 becomes a concern only after the flop, or if he LRRs.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
But if he's terrible (not too unlikely), raise it up. MicroPoster, any PT stats or real reads on UTG+1?

[/ QUOTE ]

If we have a read on the limper, that read should affect whether or not we continue. Not whether or not we raise here. If I'm continuing, I'm raising.

[irishpint]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But if he's terrible (not too unlikely), raise it up. MicroPoster, any PT stats or real reads on UTG+1?

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If we have a read on the limper, that read should affect whether or not we continue. Not whether or not we raise here. If I'm continuing, I'm raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree. i raise this for a variety of reasons.
1. i want to fold out a weak A or K from SB or BB
2. i UTG1 playing scared
3. i want a free flop, and turn (perhaps) via position on the button

by raising and getting it heads up we can often takedown the pot on a flop bet alone. assuming we miss but bet the flop, a call by UTG and we check behind the turn and can fold the river UI

[ QUOTE ]
But if he's terrible (not too unlikely), raise it up. MicroPoster, any PT stats or real reads on UTG+1?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Wookie,

FYI, all hands from this post are from the same table, so you guys have exactly the same information that was available to me, except for results. (By the way, I think this is an argument for having results in white, so that people can develop their own reads. But then maybe that skews replies?)

I also was going to suggest making hands available in PT format, so people could import and get PT stats themselves too. Perhaps that's something we can consider for the future.

But to answer your question: villain here was very loose preflop and hasn't raised a single hand. So yes, this does seem like an ideal spot for a raise. I think I miss a lot of these isolation raises against weak players -- my PFR is still stuck ~8 or so, while many of the good players here have managed to push theirs much higher. I've noticed a lot of similar comments about other such hands in this hand review marathon.

Hey, this leak-checking idea is working! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Nilbud]

Speaking of leak checking, is it completely spewing to fire at the river blank when two and half streets have been checked through?

I know I definitely would with two opponents, maybe not three, but I have nothing concrete to back that line up.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
Speaking of leak checking, is it completely spewing to fire at the river blank when two and half streets have been checked through?

I know I definitely would with two opponents, maybe not three, but I have nothing concrete to back that line up.

[/ QUOTE ]

The answer is of course, it depends. Post a hand. I can tell you this, however. A river bluff that comes after a checked-through flop & turn is very likely to be called by weak and moderated hands. If I'm in a position where I'm liable to pull this sort of play, I'll prefer to bet the flop & turn and check the river if I'm still UI. The opponent will usually fold on the flop or turn and if he didn't, he'll call the river anyway. It costs 1.5 BB for this line as opposed to the 1.0 BB on the river bluff, but I think it has a much higher success rate. Of course, you need to be drawing to something in order for this to make sense, and have a player read that opens the door. Multiple opponents make this difficult to impossible - this is mostly a HU line.

[Nilbud]

Unfortunately, I'm at work, so no hand posts till later, but I definitely think this is a leak for me. I'm constantly looking for places to be aggressive and if I see this much weakness my mouse is drawn to the bet button like a shark that smells blood in the water.

[GrunchCan]

If you pull this sort of thing "basically always" against 2 opponents and "most of the time" against 3, then I'd say that is definitly a leak. Against just 1 opponent you need to be selective. 2 opponents are not the usual case. Against 3 opponents, it's quite unusual for this play to work.

[Nilbud]

I would say it's more like "basically always" against 1, "most of the time" against 2, and "sometimes" against three. Maybe that's not quite as bad but it's probably still a leak.

It's hard not to do it when your opponents are running around looking for someone to give the pot to.

[MrEngenic]

I fold here so I'm not HU against an UTG+1 limper.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold here so I'm not HU against an UTG+1 limper.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're in position, and you might actually have the best hand. I think playing is +EV here. Probably not a big deal, however.

[jrz1972]

They're not "looking for someone to give the pot to." More often, they actually have some sort of pathetic made hand that they're afraid to bet but that they're happy to call down with.

How many times have you raised with AK, flopped top pair, and then gotten called down by crap like 66? You're happy when that happens, right? And you're eager to play in games with those kinds of players, right? Well, if so, the corrolary is that you can't just sit there and bet-bet-bet with nothing against multiple opponents, because they're the kind of people who will call down with crap like 66 and smile when the drag the pot that you built for them.

If you're playing in a tight game against good opponents, THEN you can try to push them off a weak hand. Doing so against typical microlimit players is just spewing.

[GrunchCan]

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If you're playing in a tight game against good opponents, THEN you can try to push them off a weak hand. Doing so against typical microlimit players is just spewing.

[/ QUOTE ]

meh, I only half-agree. There isn't just one flavor of 'typical' .5/1 opponent. There are many, and some are weak-tight or playing fit or fold post flop. But the weak-tight opponents aren't better - they are just able to find a fold. And I disagree with the sentiment that this cannot be done at micros. I do it a lot. But you must have good reads.

[GrunchCan]

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I would say it's more like "basically always" against 1, "most of the time" against 2, and "sometimes" against three.

[/ QUOTE ]

This must be too often. If I had to guess, I'd say I do this 50% of the time or less against just 1 opponent. Against 2 opponents, maybe 20%? Against 3, I can't remember the last time. Part of the problem of multiple opponents is that the pot grows much faster when some call, and they could become potstuck. This foils your plans to steal the pot from them.

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you're playing in a tight game against good opponents, THEN you can try to push them off a weak hand. Doing so against typical microlimit players is just spewing.

[/ QUOTE ]

meh, I only half-agree. There isn't just one flavor of 'typical' .5/1 opponent. There are many, and some are weak-tight or playing fit or fold post flop. But the weak-tight opponents aren't better - they are just able to find a fold. And I disagree with the sentiment that this cannot be done at micros. I do it a lot. But you must have good reads.

[/ QUOTE ]

1. Weak-tight opponents are definitely, objectively better than LPPs.

2. Of course you can sometimes steal a pot in the micros, but like you said earlier, it's not an "every single time" or even "most of the time" occurance when the pot is multiway.

3. The point I was trying to make is that if you know you're playing against people who call down with weaker hands than they should (and those kinds of people are very common in .5/1 and is where a large chunk of our profits come from), then you cannot routinely try pushing them off their hands when you have nothing. Pushing around weak-tight players is one thing, but pushing around calling stations is just going to lower your winrate.

[GrunchCan]

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pushing around calling stations is just going to lower your winrate.

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This is so correct, it's scary.

[Nilbud]

I'm going to print that out and tape it to my monitor :-)

Thanks for the good advice guys!