How to tell if its variance

[MuckedTheNuts]

The last couple of weeks for me at the poker tables have been medicore at best...I seems like I have been having some of the worst luck and I feel like I am playing everything right, but I am just not seeing the results.

So my question to you all is how do you know if its variance or if there is something wrong with my play. Over my first 200 games or so my roi was 24%, now it has crept down to around 17% and my itm is 36.8%. My place distribution seems like it might need to be looked at:
1st 15.1% 51
2nd 10.1% 34
3rd 11.6% 39
4th 13.4% 45
5th 13.4% 45
6th 13.1% 44
7th 9.8% 33
8th 8.6% 29
9th 4.5% 15
10th 0.6% 2
I generally play a set of four 10s and it seems like I always place first in one of them then out of the money in the rest. My plan is this weekend (I'm going to be unable to access the internet /images/graemlins/mad.gif)is to take a look at the SNG powertools (which I just purchased) and look through all of my bubble plays and before and see if I did something wrong according to ICM. Anyone have another other thoughts? Thanks for the help.

[benza13]

Dont worry, you don't have a big enough sample size for these numbers to matter yet anyhow, you are just experiencing variance. But if you are losing confidence than a weekend of review would never hurt.

[YourFoxyGrandma]

You'll do better if you stop mucking the nuts.

I'm here all week.

[MegaBet]

Small sample size, but you definitely need to concentrate on short-handed and bubble play.

[starvs]

your ROI is over 15% still. just keep playing, it's a small sample size.

[DyessMan89]

[ QUOTE ]
Small sample size, but you definitely need to concentrate on short-handed and bubble play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup. Thats where the money is made and lost.