15/30 AKo. Four flush, paired board river.

[BigEndian]

I have AKo in MP3. One caller to MP2 (loose-ish, very aggressive, drives his draws) who raises. I 3-bet. Folded to MP2 who calls.

Flop: 4/images/graemlins/club.gifA/images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif I have no diamonds obviously.
MP2 bets, I raise, MP2 calls.

Turn: T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
MP2 checks. I bet. MP2 raises. I call.

River: 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
MP2 bets, I raise...

- Jim

[27offsooot]

What are u hoping to fold that beats u? I assume that this is a bluff because if it were for value u def. should be 3-betting the turn instead. He's likely capping AK PF, so u don't win his share of that should he lay down 2p. I doubt he's folding QJ given that this is 15/30. He's very unlikely to have 1010. I would think that his most likely range is KxQd/ AxQd with JdJ/ 9d9 being much less likely, most of which are three betting u. If he's aggressive enough to bluff three bet, this move really, really, really sucks.

[W. Deranged]

Jim-

I think this is a little too tricky for its own good, basically because I can't see a hand that's folding here that you want to fold with the very unlikely possibility of QJ.

Any other hand with a A in it is beat unless they have a diamond kicker. Most diamond kickers, though, are either not folding or would not have bet the river in the first place. If you have a specific read that villain is capable of bet-folding here with a pretty good diamond here, maybe this'll work, but I can't think of many possible hands he'd do this with.

Similarly, I doubt villain will often call here to try to snap off a bluff with a hand like AQ (no flush) or A10.

So I just call here, with the expectation of winning the pot quite often.

[brettbrettr]

This guy could also have a pair with a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[W. Deranged]

Brett,

Right. I should have mentioned that. Is villain really going to be check-raising the turn with a hand like 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and then leading the river often enough to raise here?

The nature of the board seems to me that usually weak flush hands would not have bet the river in the first place and decent flush hands are not folding to a raise. Villain will need to fold a better hand like 9% here for this to be right, and I can't come up with any range where he is going to be doing that.

Basically, how many hands does villain have that meet one of the two following criteria:

1. Contain a diamond that villain would bet-fold (maybe the smallish pairs or something crazy like that). The key point here is the turn check-raise; what is villain doing check-raising the turn with a smallish pair and weak diamond draw. Is he really that weird?

2. Don't contain a diamond but are beating hero. QJ is really it, it would seem. Even then, villain might check-call the river.

Basically, villain would have to show me QJ for me to raise this river.

Unless he knows Clarkmeister's theorem and you can "spin it backward." But that's probably not what he's doing. And you're not folding anyway.

[thejameser]

how many LAG-types are disciplined enough to make a laydown like this(assuming you are taking a bluff-raise line). very, very few. do you think that adding the FE(if any) profitably increases your expectation in this situation? or do you just think you are ahead here? i know what level of thought you are trying to operate on(assuming the bluff-raise), but if it is not properly employed against a player that is a thinking opponent capable of this level of thought, well, it just seems a little spewy.

[W. Deranged]

I don't even think it's great against a TAGish/thinking player, because such a player is not check-raising the turn and leading the river with a hand that he will lay down to a turn raise with the exception of maybe QJ.

What are the realistic hands that are beating us that are folding??? Please, someone tell me!

[mikeyvegas]

[ QUOTE ]
Please, someone tell me!

[/ QUOTE ]

None in a heads up pot.

[BigEndian]

Fair enough. It was spur-of-the-moment when I made the river raise, but my instinct told me that the pot was big enough so that if he laid down a diamond even once in 10 times, I'm making money.

I hate showing results, but I think it's valuable here. My opponent called and flipped 5/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. So my error was very clearly in my expectation of what he was able to fold. It was probably more likely to be one in 10,000 chance /images/graemlins/smirk.gif.

- Jim

[Emperor]

Well, after seeing your results, I would say that your river raise was correct for value. As this moron is capable of Check raise bluffing the turn with a pair of fives...