is this overplaying AK? by a pro no less

[JC_Saves]

PokerStars Game #2199563569: Tournament #10569875, Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2005/07/27 - 13:04:43 (ET)
Table '10569875 1' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: JohnnyBax (1340 in chips)
Seat 2: Minkee (1715 in chips)
Seat 3: northerngent (1520 in chips)
Seat 4: MisterMOTOWN (2425 in chips)
Seat 5: ChiliKing (1360 in chips)
Seat 6: KidKGB (1380 in chips)
Seat 7: slews (1470 in chips)
Seat 8: Nugie512 (1470 in chips)
Seat 9: luckyld (820 in chips)
northerngent: posts small blind 15
MisterMOTOWN: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
ChiliKing: calls 30, 4 folds, JohnnyBax: raises 120 to 150, 3 folds, ChiliKing: calls 120
*** FLOP *** [7c 9c 5c] (POT:345)
ChiliKing: checks, JohnnyBax: bets 150, ChiliKing: raises 150 to 300, JohnnyBax: calls 150
*** TURN *** [7c 9c 5c] [6d] (POT=945)
ChiliKing: bets 330, JohnnyBax: calls 330
*** RIVER *** [7c 9c 5c 6d] [Td] (Pot 1605)
ChiliKing: checks, JohnnyBax: bets 560 and is all-in, ChiliKing: calls 560
*** SHOW DOWN ***
JohnnyBax: shows [Kc Ad] (high card Ace)
ChiliKing: shows [Jc Jd] (a pair of Jacks)

Doesn't the way this hand play pretty much tell you that AK is not good after the flop? Is this just a total case of failing to reevaluate where you are at in the hand and overvaluing AK?

After the turn, how can you call any bet here with AK? you are behind to any pair, a set, and if it wasn't made on flop a straight now. And if you are really planning on going the distance with this AK, which at this point it sure looks like it, why don't you push all your chips in now and hope that the person folds to your "percieved straight"?

The river push here seems like total desparation to me. The only hand you can beat basically is a total bluff. Why not check it and hope that he was bluffing. Yes, I recognize that you have put almost all of your stack into this pot, but does that mean you just give up and throw the rest in because it is a huge pot?

Does anyone else think that the play of this hand was something you would see in a $5 SNG on PP? Or am I just missing something here. I was hoping to learn something from watching some "pro" players and how they play, but so far it has not been very enlightening.

[Superfluous Man]

Did you miss the part where he's getting 5.3:1 on the flop and 3.9:1 on the turn with two overcards and the 2nd nut flush draw?

Sure, the river bet looks like desperation when you know he has nothing, but some might find it a pretty frightening board. Though he probably doesn't raise preflop with many hands that contain an 8, he could be trapping with a made flush (I do think he plays any other hand that beats jacks, such as AA-QQ, or a set, stronger than this).

The only problem I really see with the river bluff is that once ChiliKing has already put in more than half his stack, he's probably going to call the river despite the fact that his river check screams "I'm weak!" Either way, it's not badly played in my view.

Edit: To reiterate, the point of a river push is to get ChiliKing to fold a better hand. That's like, the point of bluffing. Also, given that ChiliKing minraised on the flop, I wouldn't put it past him to fold the river after committing more than half his stack.

[Richie Rich]

It is inconceivable for a Pro's bluff to be called.

Therefore he must not be a Pro. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[steeser]

I've been playing in these SNG's a lot lately. Johnnybax pretty much plays pedal to the medal all of the time. I'm awfully surprised that he didn't push on the flop after being raised.

Generally his favorite bet is all-in.

[MegaBet]

If I'm the aggressor preflop with AK (which is usually the case), I'll make a standard continuation bet of 1/2 the pot on the flop if I don't hit and fold if raised. I'll check the turn and try and see it down for nothing if called and I still haven't improved. You thought ace-high was good in this situation?

[Vee Quiva]

preflop: fine
flop: uh-oh but he has a draw to the flush so it's ok to call the min raise.
turn: yes check it through
river: Good god what the hell is he doing!? Check it through. No need to run a bluff with all your chips that early in the tournament.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm the aggressor preflop with AK (which is usually the case), I'll make a standard continuation bet of 1/2 the pot on the flop if I don't hit and fold if raised. I'll check the turn and try and see it down for nothing if called and I still haven't improved. You thought ace-high was good in this situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like playing against people like you.

[MegaBet]

Hey whatever works man. I am successful, but each to their own.

[Superfluous Man]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey whatever works man. I am successful, but each to their own.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm trying to think of a situation in which folding a 15-outer getting 5.3:1 from the pot (and closing the action) "works." /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[ QUOTE ]
turn: yes check it through

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm trying to think of a situation in which it's possible to check it through after someone's bet into you. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Edit: I probably push the turn here, but I guess that's neither here nor there.

[AliasMrJones]

[ QUOTE ]
preflop: fine
flop: uh-oh but he has a draw to the flush so it's ok to call the min raise.
turn: yes check it through

[/ QUOTE ]

It is hard to check it through when villain bets into him.

I think I'd like a turn push over the river push. They both seem pretty committed by the river.

[JC_Saves]

ChiliKing: calls 30, 4 folds, JohnnyBax: raises 120 to 150, 3 folds, ChiliKing: calls 120
*** FLOP *** [7c 9c 5c] (POT:345)
ChiliKing: checks, JohnnyBax: bets 150, ChiliKing: raises 150 to 300, JohnnyBax: calls 150
*** TURN *** [7c 9c 5c] [6d] (POT=945)
ChiliKing: bets 330, JohnnyBax: calls 330
*** RIVER *** [7c 9c 5c 6d] [Td] (Pot 1605)
ChiliKing: checks, JohnnyBax: bets 560 and is all-in, ChiliKing: calls 560

Thank you. I did miss the flush draw on the flop.

But having said that, can you really say that he is gettin 5.3 to 1 on the flop? I know that is what it looks like straight up if you do the math but it really is more like 645\300 slightly better than 2 to 1 since he put in 150 of this money to begin with.

Somehow it doesn't seem logical for me to drive the pot up by betting and then have someone come over the top of me, and then I get to ignore my previous bet this hand like it didn't happen and say wow look at the great odds I am getting.

yes, he is getting 3.8 to 1 on the turn which is below what you really should need if you follow the math and probabilities with one card to come to draw out.

The way this hand as been played up to the turn, how can you possibly believe that pairing either of your cards is a solid out to win?

Yes you have second best flush draw, to someone that could already have the flush on the flop. Someone could have a made straight which puts you solidly behind relying only on the flush as your only outs.

Isn't there a saying don't make a bet that can cost you money? His river bet can only lose him money after the way it has been played and the board that is there. Did his opponent play like this board scared him? I think not. He played like he welcomed it all the way, and then he checked it, hoping that Johnny would fire off the last of his chips, because he knew if he bet there was a great chance that Johnny would fold it.

[Nicholasp27]

once he's put his money into the pot, it's a 'sunk cost'...u can't lower his odds of a subsequent bet because of that..when he bets that 150, it's to get all of the money in the pot, including what he's already invested...so it's total pot divided by 150, not just his opp's contribution

[fnord_too]

Well, I probably check behind on the flop there to try to keep this pot small. As others have said, you are really pricing him in. I can certainly see why he would try to bluff on the river after your timid betting, but I'm not sure I would.

Honestly, I don't think either of you played this hand particularly well. Normally, a small check raise will get out AK from a good player on the flop, but with a monotone flop you have to seriously consider the possibility that he has a flush draw to go along with over cards if in fact he does not have an overpair (or maybe even a set).

Preflop I really hate limp calling with jacks, and this hand really illustrates why (even though you ended up stacking him on this hand). You are playing a very marginal, vulnerable hand OOP over multiple streets. Villain is in good shape to stack YOU here, you got lucky with this hand in that:
1. Your read was correct
2. He did not play back at you on the flop and put you to the test (what do you do if he pushes to your mini c/r)
3. He did not hit one of his 15 outs
4. He bluffed on the end.

If your stacks were deeper, I have less problem with limp calling with jacks, but that line is really playing them for set value and hoping to stack villain when you hit. Stacks just are not deep enough for that here.

I am not crazy about villain's play, but other than the bluff at the end I think the line is defensible. (The bluff at the end against someone who is decent is just bad IMO, since the most obvious draw missed, check calling is such a standard play against an aggressive opponent).

Villain has two other lines he can take:
1. get to showdown cheaply if he does not make his hand. That is check behind on the flop and call a reasonable turn bet if he misses, play the river accordingly.
2. continue on the flop like he did and reraise you mini raise all in. I like this line a lot, but would probably wuss out if, as villain had, my club was the K and not the A. (By wuss out I mean go with option 1. I don't really like the continuation bet here if I don't feel comfortable pushing a non pot commiting raise and folding to a pot commiting one. That's my real beef with how villain played this hand, but I can see how he got sucked along since he was getting odds to call. Problem is, he does not know if all his outs are clean and extracting money from you if he hits and is in fact ahead could prove problematic.)

[UMTerp]

I'm folding the turn if I'm JohnnyBax - there's too good a chance he's drawing ridiculously thin. That 330 may be an OK call pot odds wise (and it certainly was in this case in hindsight), but there's a huge difference between playing a 900 stack and a 550 stack here.

Interesting hand.