What do you do with 55 here?

[CarlSpackler]

Villain seemed to be a pretty solid player. What’s your play here? I don’t like pushing here at level 3. I think reraising is completely out of the question due to my stack size. If I call I’m out of position, and am going to be facing overcards. Do I try a stopngo here? Or do you just decide not to invest another 7% of your stack and fold?

33sng – bb t50

Table Table 12944 (Real Money) -- Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 1: HERO (695)
Seat 2: yehuday (1860)
Seat 3: kjbluff (1255)
Seat 5: slagout (815)
Seat 7: newrags (2085)
Seat 9: Maramari (635)
Seat 10: Grovecity528 (655)
Grovecity528 posts small blind (25)
HERO posts big blind (50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif ]
yehuday folds.
kjbluff folds.
slagout folds.
newrags raises (100) to 100
Maramari folds.
Grovecity528 folds.
HERO ????

[Maulik]

this seems like an easy limp; or a fold if raised.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
this seems like an easy limp if no one opens before you and a simple fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

huh?

hero's in the bb facing a miniraise...

i think i call here more often than i honestly should. this is one of those spots where i try to figure out what curtains would do, because i play a little too loosey at 25/50 i think, especially out of the blinds.

it's very possible call is perfectly acceptable.
if villain has been solid though, pushing seems attrocious.

citanul

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
this seems like an easy limp if no one opens before you and a simple fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

agree

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this seems like an easy limp if no one opens before you and a simple fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

agree

[/ QUOTE ]

argh, how can you agree with that? it doesn't make any sense! or, like i said in the other thread, am i just totally out of it?

there's no one behind him to raise, and he can't limp because it's been raised to him. he's in the bb.

citanul

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this seems like an easy limp if no one opens before you and a simple fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

huh?

hero's in the bb facing a miniraise...

i think i call here more often than i honestly should. this is one of those spots where i try to figure out what curtains would do, because i play a little too loosey at 25/50 i think, especially out of the blinds.

it's very possible call is perfectly acceptable.
if villain has been solid though, pushing seems attrocious.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]


edit: this is an easy call simply to hit a set in BB. Clearly I can't read position unless its teamfu

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this seems like an easy limp if no one opens before you and a simple fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

huh?

hero's in the bb facing a miniraise...

i think i call here more often than i honestly should. this is one of those spots where i try to figure out what curtains would do, because i play a little too loosey at 25/50 i think, especially out of the blinds.

it's very possible call is perfectly acceptable.
if villain has been solid though, pushing seems attrocious.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]


If I'm out of line, let me know... you need to hit a set or this hand has close to 0 showdown value. Calling a raise of 100 becomes 12.5% of hero's stack for no reason.

[/ QUOTE ]

hero's already got 50 in the pot, and is facing a raise to 100, so 50 more.

citanul

[Scuba Chuck]

You say "presto!"

works every time.

[RobGW]

Right. So calling another $50 hero would need to win $400 to breakeven. There is already $175 in the pot so hero needs to win another $225 to breakeven. Hero also has to consider whether having $645 all the time is better than having $595 7/8 of the time and whatever he will win on average(lets say $1100) 1/8 times. I don't know what is correct but I would call here most of the time.

[MegaBet]

I knew what he meant. Call the 50 and see what the flop brings.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
Right. So calling another $50 hero would need to win $400 to breakeven. There is already $175 in the pot so hero needs to win another $225 to breakeven. Hero also has to consider whether having $645 all the time is better than having $595 7/8 of the time and whatever he will win on average(lets say $1100) 1/8 times. I don't know what is correct but I would call here most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

your math assumes that hero never ever ever ever wins a pot without flopping a set. that is a bad mistake to make.

and yes, the most important thing to consider is the relative difference those 50 chips are going to make on your EV in the tournament. say calling here wins you the pot only when you hit the set. so the case where you win with getting no more chips you're giving up like, half the equity of your call since you're getting 225 when yo uwin instead of the 400ish you needed to get. but those chips down there are marginal, so there's effects to consider between the 595 stack and having the 800ish chip stack, and then more when you consider that when flopping a set you'll often make more chips, including often making more than just the 200 more you need to break even.

citanul

ps: i think i personally lean towards call here as the right answer but i can't think more about it right now. the utility of those 50 chips is just miniscule, esp considering you're about to be done paying your blinds for the orbit, compared to the huge boost a double up would give you in ev.

[RobGW]

[ QUOTE ]
your math assumes that hero never ever ever ever wins a pot without flopping a set. that is a bad mistake to make.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very true. I guess it would depend on the opponent then. If he is passive and predictible and will check if he misses then I would definately call this. If he is aggressive and tricky then I may fold or may just call for set value. Of course multitabling makes it difficult to devote time to reading players so i tried to make things easy. Being OOP makes it even more difficult to play. If you check it makes it more likely he will continuation bet with nada. If you bet and he hits he will raise you.

[Flopzilla]

Stop $ Go, Baby... /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
Stop $ Go, Baby... /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

what are you talking about?

[valenzuela]

ouch.
What about a push?? I kinda like pushing.

Assuming villian is solid, seems like there are three possibilities (all math approximate):

1. He has overpair -- you are 5-1 dog
2. He has two over -- you are about 55-45 ahead
3. He's on bluff/has one over -- you are 5-2 ahead

What's a fair breakdown of each of these scenarios? I'd probably assign 50% to #1, 40% to #2, and 10% to #3 -- fairly conservative assumptions, but since you're out of position and he raised with players behind him, I'd tend to think conservative. You could go 50/30/20, or 40/40/10 --depends on villian's past play.

So now a little (approximate) math:

Scenario one: you win 16% of time, 50% prob. = 8% win
Scenario two: you win 55% of time, 40% prob: = 22% win
Scenario three: you win 70% of time, 10% = 7% win

So you stand to win about 37% of the time. Pot is offering you 3-1 odds, so this looks like a very reasonable call to me, esp. when you consider the implied possibilities of making your set.

What about a raise? [This is my first post on here, so I guess people are calling a raise a push, unless push means "all-in"?] Not sure I see any reason why. Solid player has indicated strength, hero has a low pair and has chips to play with. I'd call and if the flop came rags, take a stab at winning it. IF you get called or raised, I'd slow way down and evaluate my options (read: pot odds).