Continuation Bets?

I've found that players in $11 and $22 games are pretty prone to fold to continuation bets, but two spots came up fairly early in a game last night where it just didn't feel right to fire at the flop. Here are the hands:

#Game No : 2430047846
***** Hand History for Game 2430047846 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:14291373 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Tuesday, July 26, 22:25:39 EDT 2005
Table Table 13813 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 5: pizzzaking ( $1025 )
Seat 10: rosschu ( $800 )
Seat 8: rabidracooon ( $800 )
Seat 1: Fearless9988 ( $785 )
Seat 3: jrtiffany ( $2310 )
Seat 4: stain2 ( $720 )
Seat 7: mpokerw ( $785 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $775 )
Trny:14291373 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Qd Qs ]
rosschu folds.
Fearless9988 calls [15].
jrtiffany folds.
stain2 calls [15].
pizzzaking folds.
HERO raises [90].
mpokerw folds.
rabidracooon folds.
Fearless9988 calls [75].
stain2 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3s, Ah, Js ]
Fearless9988 checks.
HERO checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Kh ]
Fearless9988 bets [125].
HERO folds.
Fearless9988 does not show cards.
Fearless9988 wins 345 chips.


#Game No : 2430103178
***** Hand History for Game 2430103178 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:14291373 Level:2 Blinds(15/30) - Tuesday, July 26, 22:33:52 EDT 2005
Table Table 13813 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 5: pizzzaking ( $1320 )
Seat 10: rosschu ( $1210 )
Seat 8: rabidracooon ( $900 )
Seat 3: jrtiffany ( $2510 )
Seat 4: stain2 ( $815 )
Seat 7: mpokerw ( $605 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $640 )
Trny:14291373 Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Ah Kd ]
jrtiffany folds.
stain2 calls [30].
pizzzaking folds.
HERO raises [150].
mpokerw folds.
rabidracooon folds.
rosschu folds.
stain2 calls [120].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qh, Jc, Qc ]
stain2 checks.
HERO checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5h ]
stain2 checks.
HERO checks.
** Dealing River ** [ 6c ]
stain2 bets [125].
HERO folds.
stain2 does not show cards.
stain2 wins 470 chips.


Was I right to check and fold in these spots, or should I have fired again?

[tigerite]

The first one I think you should fire one shell at the flop, because he can just bluff you off the pot with any pair on the turn now, knowing you don't have an ace and so there's now two overs on the board. If he calls or raises you, let it go. You should make it 2/3rds of the flop if you ask me. The second one, I think checking is okay.

[proell]

I fire at both of these pots.

You most likely have the best hand in both cases. If you check you are giving a weaker hand the pot by letting them bet out on the turn.

#1) you can't always assume a caller has an A. Giving the free turn card made your situation worse when the K came.

#2) Do you think opp has Q,J, or PP? Possible, but there are a lot of other more likely holdings.

[AACardPlayer]

First hand I’d bet of about half the pot, if he check-raises I’d let it go, and if he calls and checks the turn I’d check behind on the turn. If he bets out on the turn or river after calling on the flop, then just use your best judgment, but I’d probably fold.

2nd hand is ok, but I’d consider calling the river bet, depending on the your read on your oppenet if you have one.

Thanks- what do you put the limp-caller on here? I figured Ax was by far the most likely hand, and don't see anybody folding with a kicker they felt comfortable calling a large pre-flop raise with.

I guess a pocket pair 7's-J's is an outside possibility. A hand like Kx I am not too worried about. I would have been willing to call a bet on the turn or river had a K not fallen. I guess that's an argument for betting KJ out of the pot on the flop, but really a K was pretty much the only card I felt like I needed to worry about.

[45suited]

Hand 1: I'd bet the flop after he checks. It doesn't have
to be a huge bet, but I'd throw a bet out there.
After checking the flop, I like the fold though.

Hand 2: The way you played it, I'm calling that river.
You're still ahead enough times to make this call.
I'm also betting the turn after villain checks
twice.

[ QUOTE ]
I fire at both of these pots.

You most likely have the best hand in both cases. If you check you are giving a weaker hand the pot by letting them bet out on the turn.

#1) you can't always assume a caller has an A. Giving the free turn card made your situation worse when the K came.

#2) Do you think opp has Q,J, or PP? Possible, but there are a lot of other more likely holdings.

[/ QUOTE ]

#1) You're right that things got worse when the K came out, and I knew a K would be bad for me, but that's only going to happen 8% of the time (6% if Villain is holding a K). I don't think there were too many other cards I had to worry about- maybe another J. I certainly don't want a low pair to make a set, but again the odds are slim, I don't think a low pair is that likely of a holding, and I am not willing to invest a whole lot on this hand anyway, so he won't get a huge payoff if he does hit.

#2) I am behind any AQ, AJ, PP, KQ, KJ- I think those are the most likely holdings, and I don't see them folding. I didn't have great reads on either of these opponents as these hands came fairly early in the tourney.

Thanks for the response- I don't mean to be argumentative, just playing devil's advocate so I can get a better sense of your reasoning here.

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 2: The way you played it, I'm calling that river.
You're still ahead enough times to make this call.
I'm also betting the turn after villain checks
twice.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the suggestion to bet the turn- I think that's what I should have done, in retrospect. Thanks for the help!

[proell]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I fire at both of these pots.

You most likely have the best hand in both cases. If you check you are giving a weaker hand the pot by letting them bet out on the turn.

#1) you can't always assume a caller has an A. Giving the free turn card made your situation worse when the K came.

#2) Do you think opp has Q,J, or PP? Possible, but there are a lot of other more likely holdings.

[/ QUOTE ]

#1) You're right that things got worse when the K came out, and I knew a K would be bad for me, but that's only going to happen 8% of the time (6% if Villain is holding a K). I don't think there were too many other cards I had to worry about- maybe another J. I certainly don't want a low pair to make a set, but again the odds are slim, I don't think a low pair is that likely of a holding, and I am not willing to invest a whole lot on this hand anyway, so he won't get a huge payoff if he does hit.

#2) I am behind any AQ, AJ, PP, KQ, KJ- I think those are the most likely holdings, and I don't see them folding. I didn't have great reads on either of these opponents as these hands came fairly early in the tourney.

Thanks for the response- I don't mean to be argumentative, just playing devil's advocate so I can get a better sense of your reasoning here.

[/ QUOTE ]


#1) It doesn't really matter what card comes on 4th St since any bet from villian will take the pot (but btw, you forgot about any spade). ~200 chips is a lot to just give away when you most likely hold the best hand here. You may even get A-little to lay down (though probably not in a 10+1).


#2) Maybe I'm too aggressive here, but I still bet this flop. You are still ahead of Ax (besides Qor J), Kx, xxc, and a small pp may not want to pay the price to find out if you have AJ, AQ, or bigger PP.

Checking again gives the green light for villian to take the pot on the turn. After not betting the flop I think I follow your line, but I'm not sure. Maybe I bet the turn, though if not I've given up and fold the river.