AJs, what the hell am I doing?

[DavidC]

Villain is in first 30 hands at table, vpip 11, pfr 11.

Actually... sorry, just checked my other my DB, which I had access to at the time, and therefore would have been in this decision:

90 more hands on top of that, with vpip 47.78 and pfr 2. 0.5 aggression post-flop.

So he's something like vpip 37 pfr 4 and zero ag in this decision.

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Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (7 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero folds.

---

Okay... a few questions:

1) If I'm going to be playing post-flop like this, it's better for me to fold preflop, right?

2) Is there a better way to play this hand?

Question #1 is important, anyone that can back it up with actual numbers would be appreciated.

[Erik W]

I he's a 2% pfr he plays hands like
JJ+ or AK,KK+ so either way u r way behind.
Fold preflop.

[W. Deranged]

David,

1. The pot is laying you better than 3-1; only dominated hands are going to be getting obviously bad odds to play here.

2. Though villain likely has a very small hand range given his tiny pfr, many hands in that range will be pairs, which you have easily sufficient odds to play against (except AA).

3. Villain's tiny Ag factor suggests he probably calls way too much. Hence, there is no need to try to pressure him out of the pot on the flop, but there is an added incentive to take off a flop because you'll likely get paid when you hit.

3a. You are a better player than villain and so some of your likely pre-flop disadvantage will be made up by superior post-flop play.

It seems to me the only good way to play this is exactly as you did. Take of the flop with the intent of dumping if you miss and milking villain for all he's worth when you hit. You want him to be the one giving the reverse-implied odds.

[W. Deranged]

David has him at 11% pfr for one stretch and 4% overall, which is significantly different than 2%. Against hands like 10 10 a fold would be terrible, and hero is getting odds to play against QQ, JJ, etc...

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
I he's a 2% pfr he plays hands like
JJ+ or AK+KK+ so either way u r way behind.
Fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

pokerstove:

vs AA-JJ, AKs-AQs, AKo: I have 29.5% equity.

If I remove AQs and JJ from that list (now I have AA-QQ, AK(s)), I still have 28.9%

A lot of my equity comes from when he has AK and I spike a J, and when I river my straights and flushes.

Given that I'm being asked to put in less than 25% of the pot, I don't know how I should play the rest of the hand...

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
David has him at 11% pfr for one stretch and 4% overall, which is significantly different than 2%. Against hands like 10 10 a fold would be terrible, and hero is getting odds to play against QQ, JJ, etc...

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm... good point. He may be adjusting his play this morning.

How should I play post-flop?

edit: not on just htis board, but on all boards... what sort of stuff should I be looking for? Or is this question WAY too big? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[W. Deranged]

David,

The key is to get implied odds here and not give them. Your equity is just enough to play on, but you have to be sure you don't put in too much money when you're likely behind on later streets, or else your effective odds pre-flop will be cut way down.

I honestly think the only way to play this is a very straightforward fit-or-fold approach. I'd plan on leading pretty much any flop that hits you, and, given villain's agg. profile, probably folding if an A hits and you get raised. I'd bet all the way if not raised.

I think one of the key's here is that villain's profile is such that it is extremely easy to play against him.

[DrBob]

You pose an interesting question. I can't give a complete quantitative answer, but maybe this table will give some insight. I put together a set of possible raising hands, that add to about 4% frequency. The table gives the relative frequency of these hands, given that you hold AJs.
hand rel freq ahead on flop
AA 5.9% 16.7%
KK 11.8% 16.7%
QQ 11.8% 16.7%
JJ 5.9% 16.7%
TT 11.8% 33.3%
AK 23.5% 16.7%
AQ 23.5% 16.7%
AJs 5.9% 50.0%

100.0% 21%
My "ahead on the flop" column is very approximate, assuming a 1/6 chance of pairing a specific one of your cards, and neglecting opp's chance of improving. The latter makes these assessments optimistic. Even so, you rate have only a 21% chance of being ahead on the flop, against his range of hands. This doesn't auger well, HU.

What's confusing to me is that AJs is normally touted as a reasonable cold call hand against a sound raiser.

Hope this helps.
You're paying 2 bets to call a pot of 3.5 bets, a bit worse that 1.75:1.

[W. Deranged]

Hero is paying 1 bet into a pot of 3.5 bets, which makes all the difference.

I think your use of "ahead on the flop" stats is really excellent logic here, and that is what hero is looking for.

[DrBob]

Sorry, you're absolutely correct about the odds, I forgot that hero is BB, so he is only paying 1 bet to call 3.5 (less rake).

[Erik W]

You're right. I thought he added the sessions together when he
claimed the 2% but I realize I was wrong.

4% is like JJ+,AK,AQ.
I ususally fold in these situations.
Do I really have the odds to continue?

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
You pose an interesting question. I can't give a complete quantitative answer, but maybe this table will give some insight. I put together a set of possible raising hands, that add to about 4% frequency. The table gives the relative frequency of these hands, given that you hold AJs.
hand rel freq ahead on flop
AA 5.9% 16.7%
KK 11.8% 16.7%
QQ 11.8% 16.7%
JJ 5.9% 16.7%
TT 11.8% 33.3%
AK 23.5% 16.7%
AQ 23.5% 16.7%
AJs 5.9% 50.0%

100.0% 21%
My "ahead on the flop" column is very approximate, assuming a 1/6 chance of pairing a specific one of your cards, and neglecting opp's chance of improving. The latter makes these assessments optimistic. Even so, you rate have only a 21% chance of being ahead on the flop, against his range of hands. This doesn't auger well, HU.

What's confusing to me is that AJs is normally touted as a reasonable cold call hand against a sound raiser.

Hope this helps.
You're paying 2 bets to call a pot of 3.5 bets, a bit worse that 1.75:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is awesome, thanks!

Is there a poker program that calculates how often you'll be ahead on the flop with a given range of hands?

--Dave.

[The Nutz85]

You were correct to call on the bb with about 3-1 odds your equity if you put him on a range of hands like TT, AT, ect. is about 55% so getting 3-1 its correct to call on the bb. To cold call a raise with AJs is pretty much aother story then you are getting about even money and your not a favorite.
On the flop you did the right thing give it up if you did not hit the flop, because if you thought you were behind preflop which you prob were you are still after the flop.

[Bluffoon]

This post highlights a major problem with stat reads. Is he a PFR 11 or a PFR 2? With such a small sample who knows?

If I just called preflop I would put him to the test with a check raise on the flop and a turn lead. At worst the table sees that they had better be prepared to invest heavily to take your blinds.

AJs is a nice hand anytime. I often will three bet this and if I don't get capped I will lead the flop. This gives the PFRer an opportunity to get out of the hand without making any postflop investment and again shows you aren't going to roll over without a fight.

[The Nutz85]

i was going to suggest a check raise but what if he doesnt want to let go of his pocket pair? if you 3 bet preflop i suggest aggressive attack on the flop but since you smooth called you will have a hard time making even a intermediate player beleive you have his TT or 88 beat.

[chief444]

I'd play it the same. I'm not folding AJs preflop. When the flop comes Q-high and you don't really have a lot going you're behind a majority of the time and the opponent's way too loose/passive to try to push off a better hand IMO. So I can't see doing anything but check/folding the flop.

[Mister Z]

Folding from the BB would be rediculous with such a strong hand. I'm torn between taking the cheaper line that you took, or 3-betting PF to take control of the hand. If you 3-bet you can fire into him on the turn and will likely get a fold unless he really likes the flop.

As you played it, I like the fold. No need to get into a pissing contest over this tiny pot.

[ElSapo]

[ QUOTE ]
If I just called preflop I would put him to the test with a check raise on the flop and a turn lead. At worst the table sees that they had better be prepared to invest heavily to take your blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't this be a better plan with a more ragged flop? The Q could well have hit him, and if it did I can't imagine laying down.

[Bluffoon]

Well if you get three bet or raised on the turn you have to probably let it go. You can always check fold the river if he just wont fold or even throw in crying call with your ace high if you feel it has a prayer. This doesn't have to work every time to be profitable and it is good for your image too. And remember sometimes along the way you will actually pick up a hand too.

I disagree. It can look like you slowplayed a big pair or you could have just hit a set or any damn hand with a queen could be scary to the PRFer.

[ElSapo]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd play it the same. I'm not folding AJs preflop. When the flop comes Q-high and you don't really have a lot going you're behind a majority of the time and the opponent's way too loose/passive to try to push off a better hand IMO. So I can't see doing anything but check/folding the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. It's just not a good flop for you and the queen could have hit him. I have no problem letting this one go, and I'm not sure why others seem so inclined to put more money in the pot.

[TiltsMcFabulous]

I think you played this perfectly. You cannot fold AJs in this spot in the BB. But then the flop completely misses you, and you are behind every decent raising hand but A-10 and KJs. You had a clear call preflop and you made it, and you had a clear fold postflop, and you made it.

Well done.

~ Tilts

[Bluffoon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If I just called preflop I would put him to the test with a check raise on the flop and a turn lead. At worst the table sees that they had better be prepared to invest heavily to take your blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't this be a better plan with a more ragged flop? The Q could well have hit him, and if it did I can't imagine laying down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah it could have hit him but it's just a lone Queen there are no draws or no real coordination. Don't get me wrong I don't autmatically fight for every pot but I don't automatically fold to a lone overcard in a heads up steal situation either.

[brettbrettr]

This isn't exactly a steal situation.

[chief444]

bluffoon,

We know several things at this point:

1) We're very likely behind.
2) Our opponent is very loose and likely to at least see the river and more likely showdown.
3) The pot is pretty small.
4) We don't have much going for us as far as outs when we are behind.

IMO this hand was perfectly played.

Chief

[Erik W]

Yeah, easy call.
I thought u cc from Button.
I misread the hand.

[Bluffoon]

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't exactly a steal situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know what you are right it's not. The raise wasn't from EP but it's not late either.

This post started out a little weak-tight I thought and the read was based on skimpy stats. I suggested that taking a more aggressive line in these situations can pay off and have some intangible advantages as well. I agree that this line is not always appropriate but I think taking a fit and fold approach all the time is not a good approach either.

Call the flop bet and if you don't improve, dump it.

Folding preflop would be cool. You're out of postion in a small pot with a marginal hand that's probably dominated, and if an Ace flops, you're gonna be in tough spot.

[W. Deranged]

Chief's post really sums this up well.

Combine Chief's analysis with the analysis already given about why this is probably a marginal play pre-flop, and I think it's quite clear that the OP played this hand as well as it could possibly be played.

[The Nutz85]

[ QUOTE ]

I disagree. It can look like you slowplayed a big pair or you could have just hit a set or any damn hand with a queen could be scary to the PRFer.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is assuming he isa good hand reader likely not as good as me or any 2+2er so i doubt this would work your relying on him to be smart enough to pick up on a slow play.