How easy?

[krishanleong]

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: (7.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB check raises, I call.

Villian is 42/14/1.5 over 2371 hands. Standard?

Krishan

[PokerMike]

You know how to play these man. That guys stats are psycho, easy call if he raises you too.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
You know how to play these man. That guys stats are psycho, easy call if he raises you too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup, yup. Thanks Mike.

Krishan

Seems standard. The only question in my mind is what hands do you beat at the river that will still call? AK is a split. AJ/AQ/JJ/QQ you lose against. Of the hands he'll 3 bet preflop that leaves KK and maybe 88/99/TT? Maybe ATs? Will he really call the mid pairs at the river?

What's the rule from ToP, you have to be ahead 55% of the time to bet for value? Seems close.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Seems standard. The only question in my mind is what hands do you beat at the river that will still call? AK is a split. AJ/AQ/JJ/QQ you lose against. Of the hands he'll 3 bet preflop that leaves KK and maybe 88/99/TT? Maybe ATs? Will he really call the mid pairs at the river?

What's the rule from ToP, you have to be ahead 55% of the time to bet for value? Seems close.

[/ QUOTE ]

JJ and AJ I would have heard from before.

Krishan

[bvaughn]

Is there something special about this hand? Looks completely standard to me...what's the catch?

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there something special about this hand? Looks completely standard to me...what's the catch?

[/ QUOTE ]

This part is standard. I was going to post the part where I got cred and see if anyone thought I could lay it down.

Krishan

[PokerBob]

i don't get it? You are worried about AQ here I assume. I think I still bet/call.

[Mig]

[ QUOTE ]
Seems standard. The only question in my mind is what hands do you beat at the river that will still call? AK is a split. AJ/AQ/JJ/QQ you lose against. Of the hands he'll 3 bet preflop that leaves KK and maybe 88/99/TT? Maybe ATs? Will he really call the mid pairs at the river?

What's the rule from ToP, you have to be ahead 55% of the time to bet for value? Seems close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the river card is horrible, you are now behind most of his 3 betting range out of the BB. You are only ahead of TT/99/KK...

[PokerMike]

You guys are way way off the mark estimating his HU BB 3betting range.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys are way way off the mark estimating his HU BB 3betting range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this is why the bet part is easy. Any pair is reasonable for instance.

Krishan

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You guys are way way off the mark estimating his HU BB 3betting range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this is why the bet part is easy. Any pair is reasonable for instance.


[/ QUOTE ]

ATs as well and maybe a hand like KJs.

[bvaughn]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is there something special about this hand? Looks completely standard to me...what's the catch?

[/ QUOTE ]

This part is standard. I was going to post the part where I got cred and see if anyone thought I could lay it down.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not laying it down to a river check-raise to this guy. Give me a .5 AF opponent and I would think about it...but not this guy.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You guys are way way off the mark estimating his HU BB 3betting range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this is why the bet part is easy. Any pair is reasonable for instance.


[/ QUOTE ]

ATs as well and maybe a hand like KJs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely.

Krishan

[Mig]

[ QUOTE ]
ATs as well and maybe a hand like KJs.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not very standard to 3 bet a MP raisor with that kind of hand is it ? Usually when a SB or BB 3 bet me and I'm from MP they usually have a good hand ...

[spydog]

I fold to a check-raise, but it's close.

I might not even bet the river. You didn't raise from a steal position, so when a 14%PFR 3-bets you from the BB then you are probably up against a very strong hand. I'm not sure why everyone thinks villian's range is so broad. If he's the type to 3-bet small/mid PPs preflop then his PFR% will be higher than 14%, IMO.

[JrJordan]

At 5/10 vs. a passive player who I have more than a stat read against, I fold. Against all others I need to call but it's still close.

An interesting thought just came to me though. I find that I could fold a hand like AT much more easily in a situation like this thank I could with AK, even though they have essentially the same equity with the J and Q on the board. This makes me think I'm calling down more for the sake of "it's TPTK in a HU pot" than anything else. That being said, vs. an unknown here I'd call with AT as well, but I'm leaning towards being able to fold both of them if I have any decent read of passivity. Based on your stat read, that's not the case here. Call.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Seems standard. The only question in my mind is what hands do you beat at the river that will still call? AK is a split. AJ/AQ/JJ/QQ you lose against. Of the hands he'll 3 bet preflop that leaves KK and maybe 88/99/TT? Maybe ATs? Will he really call the mid pairs at the river?

What's the rule from ToP, you have to be ahead 55% of the time to bet for value? Seems close.

[/ QUOTE ]

JJ and AJ I would have heard from before.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, let's run some numbers. What's he going to 3-bet with peflop? He's a 14PFR, but this is a 3-bet, not an opening raise or raising a limper. Just going by the opening hand chart posted here as a guideline, 3-betting preflop involves these hands:

AA-77, AK-AT, KQ-KJ. That might be generous (like KJ), but it's probably reasonable.

Looking at hand counts, parens is combos that could produce the hand given what we already know.
Hands you're losing to at the river: AA(1),QQ(3),JJ(3),AQ(6),AJ(6) = 19 hands
Hands you beat: KK(6),TT-77(24),AT(8),KQ(8),KJ(8) = 54 hands
AK is a split, I'll ignore it as far as the value bet is concerned.

I have to think you'd have heard from AA,JJ, or AJ on the turn, so remove those from the river consideration. That leaves 9 hands that beat you at the river.

Likewise, I have a hard time thinking the villian wouldn't have already folded or will fold to a bet 77-TT, and probably KQ,KJ (completely missed the flop), so that leaves 14 hands you beat.

9 hands you lose to, 14 hands you beat. Seems like a good value bet to me. Not as close as I thought it would be.

I screw up on any numbers there?

[Alobar]

I don't get why everyone is saying "no way against this guy". Did I miss something? Hes a 14PFR and a 1.5AF, its not like hes a LAG or something, his 3 bet from the BB range is prolly pretty decent in terms of what hands he will do it with. And if he was going to try and bluff you off with a hand like 99 he would have done it on an early street I would suspect. however, you are getting 10-1 on yoru call here, and it is 10/20, honestly, I don't think it will matter much either way what you do here.

[Guy McSucker]

First of all, your play is clearly standard and it's what almost everyone would do almost every time I think. However...

It's the fact it's a river check-raise that bothers me. It's highly unlikely to be a bluff because everybody calls in these situations. He's expecting a call.

It's also very obvious what your hand is: top pair top kicker or better. So as far as I can tell, he has something better than your hand and he wants value from it. Check-raising the river is a very good way of getting extra bets out of any hand he might have that beats you, be it AA, JJ, or a hand that overtook you on the river (AQ, QQ). If he was ahead before the river, he's letting you bet away so as not to scare you off. If he overtook you on the river, of course he wouldn't raise until the river.

He's judicious about preflop raises and your raise wasn't from steal position so he has something good. Almost everything good that can check-raise this river beats you. I don't see you being good here 9% of the time.

But I wouldn't fold it in the heat of battle, because I am a calling station.

Guy.

[sinfulslick18]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I still bet/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]


It's the fact it's a river check-raise that bothers me. It's highly unlikely to be a bluff because everybody calls in these situations. He's expecting a call.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. River checkraises aren't usually bluffs. Even from moderately aggressive people. He had QQ.

Krishan

[Guy McSucker]

So do you think you can and should fold these in future?

Guy.

[sthief09]

if that's TheBrownEyes you're beat

[Mig]

Is he THAT good ? You always have good stuff to say on him /images/graemlins/blush.gif is that your PP aka ? ^^

[sthief09]

no, he's just not tricky in the least, and he mentioned he doesn't have many 10/20 hands, but has 2700 on this guy and the stats are identical.

[imported_azalin]

From this guy i fold the river raise. Its a river raise and he is a 13,5 PFR. Thats all there is to it.

[alebron]

Is this one where you have to call because of metagame considerations? If villain realizes he can push you off TPTK with a river CR, might he start taking shots at you in later hands. If calling is wrong it's not too far wrong getting ~11:1, and it may make the rest of your session easier to play.