QJs - lost big pot

[dantheman_05]

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif. CO posts a blind of $5.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (8 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Hero ???

[W. Deranged]

1. Sweet flop check-raise. I think that is very much the best line there given relative position and your vulnerability to overcards.

2. READS!!!!!!!!!

Turn decision is damn near impossible without a read. If your opponent is standard and/or not that tricky, the turn raise will often indicate a hand like A 10 or possibly an overpair. Big monsters are not that likely here, as many J's and 10's are out of play. Realize you are getting 6-1 on a call-down here. Against a weak opponent, you are probably dead. Against an aggro/tricky opponent, calling down here will be right. Note that the hands that beat you have you drawing to very few outs, while they may have several outs against you. Against a standard opponent considering the reverse-implied odds, my little chance to improve, and the generally power-indicative bet-flop/raise-turn line of villain, I might muck.

[Or I might just decide to call if his screenname began with one of the first 6 letters of the alphabet, or something oddly game theoretic like that... my intuitive suggests a fold and a call-down against a standard opponent will be reasonably close]

[Fat Nicky]

this is close. His flat call of the flop check/raise and then him raising the turn screams monster to me. The problem is that we have no reads. I think the decision between calling down and folding is very close in EV, I don't really know the right answer.

I might call and c/c the river and I might fold the turn.


READS READS READS

[W. Deranged]

I would really like to here a convincing argument for whether this is +/- EV against an unknown/standard opponent. Pot size seems to be right on the border and so I'm very much in Nicky's boat here.

The problem is this is a common situation and I can't reason what will generally be correct here without either reads or a lot of hand-waving.

[meep_42]

With no redraw, I think this is a fold against an unknown. You're drawing to another J, which may be a split, and there are about a million hands that beat you. The Ts pairing mean that a Q doesn't even save you from an overpair. Watch this guy's play for the next couple orbits and see if he's making wild moves, but I don't think that you can call down here right now.

(Getting 12-2 on a calldown, i'd say this is a bluff maybe 5-10% of the time.)

-d

[DemonDeac]

what do people think of a 3bet? it might scare villain and get us a free showdown, even though we're OOP here?

[W. Deranged]

I can't think of any reason to three-bet here out of position.

1. If villain is bluffing, why not give him a chance to bluff the river as well.

2. If villain is drawing, a raise will not protect our hand, and in fact will only cost us in reverse-implied terms when villain does hit.

3. If villain is ahead, we are putting in money behind. If we intend to check the river, villain may decide to bet anyway, and we've cost ourselves a bet.

About the only positive effect that a turn raise might have is encouraging a bluff which happens to have live overcard/gutshot outs to fold, but villain will very rarely have just one overcard or one live gutshot out, and will probably be calling with any combo that gives 6 outs or more.

(Edit: There is also the remote possibility we could get villain to fold a better hand, but, without a read that he is a particularly hard-thinking player, I don't see him raising the turn with AJ or an overpair and then folding to a turn three-bet... unless maybe he's a 2+2er).

I think the free-showdown turn raise OOP is about as bad as the flop free-card check-raise... they both simply make no sense.

A three-bet on the turn would have to be purely for value, in my opinion. Tactically I think it gains nothing.

"3 betting villian"



thats awful.. your investing far too much money and risk being 4 bet.. and villian is unlikely to fold for 1 bet here...

If he calls and checks the river its costing you the same as seeing the turn for 1 bet and if he bets the river its costing you even more..

This is not a case where taking a cheap showdown is better.

your f/e is quite low here and as meep said the mass of betting from villian here doesn't indicate 65o (or any other bluff for that matter) it indicates an overpair, fh, 3oak, etc. etc.

not too mention your kicker isn't too great.

I think folding here is the best move against an unknown..

but against a player I know... most being bad.. as I previously mentioned.. would call down. Against a tough opponent this is an easy fold.

[lil']

Calling raises with a hand like Q-Js can be fun, but you can get yourself in a situation like this that can be difficult.

He raised preflop, then raises a protected pot, making a bluff unlikely. Unless he is getting fancy with K-Q (which also seems unlikely), you are usually losing here to a 10, a better J or an overpair. You have 2 outs against a 10, 3 outs against a better J, and 2 outs against an overpair. If you hit your J, it will kill any action against an overpair or 10, so you're implied odds are not great.

You don't have the odds to draw to 3 outs and you're not closing the action(and you don't always have 3, it's often just 2 outs), so toss it. Sucks to fold top pair in a big pot, but such is life.

[W. Deranged]

Porter Square?

[lil']

You know it. It's like a wind tunnel down there.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
Porter Square?

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks like it.