Big stack blind steal into loose opponent

[durron597]

Well, I'm not sure if "loose opponent" is correct; I do know that they called an allin very early with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif for most of their stack. But I'm not certain this opponent has loosened up correctly, though the reason my stack is what it is is because this opponent called a blind steal push of mine with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (second time they got that hand this tourney and called a preflop allin with it) and my A7o doubled through. With a hand like 55 this play is obviously correct, but 22 is considerably less good of a hand.

PokerRoom No-limit Texas Hold'em $20+$2 (real money)

Seat 1: Hero ($5,890 in chips)
Seat 4: SB ($1,565 in chips)
Seat 5: BB ($1,090 in chips)
Seat 6: UTG ($4,750 in chips)
Seat 7: MP ($1,705 in chips)

Hero is Button with 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

ANTES/BLINDS
SB posts blind ($200), BB posts blind ($400).

PRE-FLOP
2 folds, durron597 bets $1,090,

[TredWel]

I think even if you knew BB would call with any two, this would be the right move.

[schwza]

imo, BB should call with any two. if he is calling with any 2, i think you should fold. you're 50-50 against a random hand (right?), and while you get a little overlay with the SB's money in there, you run the risk of him calling. even if it's just with high cards and the BB calls with other high cards, you're well under 1/3 to win the pot (right?).

BUT.... this guy sounds like a moran. and so there's no reason to believe that he knows enough to make the obvious call with a hand like 68o. you have some chance to steal blinds, so i'd push.

[durron597]

Actually, the big worry here is that if I double up this moran I don't have the other big stack covered anymore (or the stacks are very very even).

[ChrisV]

You need there to be a decent chance that BB will make the ridiculous fold.

If you're sure BB will call, then you should certainly not raise with 22. The very slight advantage you have over BB's random hand is negated by the possibility of SB waking up with a high pair.

But more interestingly, even with something with a small advantage (say 55%) over a random hand, you should still fold, for situational reasons. You're clearly the big stack right now and should not jeopardise that for such a small chip gain.

For example, say that you fold and SB raises BB allin. BB calls and loses. If MP mucks the next hand, you can raise to 1,200 with virtual impunity. With the short stack on the table, nobody will want to mess with you. With careful management, you can extract FAR more equity from these situations than you would have got raising the BB. OTOH, if you raise the BB in the current hand and lose, your stack will be equal to UTG's and you'll have lost some of your power.

The general rule is: when you're the big stack on or close to the bubble, don't bully the short stack for miniscule edges. (This is a lot clearer 4-handed. Raising here would only be a bit wrong, whereas if you remove MP from the game and maintain the same chip counts, raising is downright terrible).

[Unarmed]

This is a great post.
I hope it disappears from the board forever. /images/graemlins/grin.gif