10+1 checkup (421 games)

[sahala]

This is my 2nd batch of 500 11s. My last ROI was at 15% and I felt comfortable at the 11s but wanted to do another 500 before hitting the 22s to improve my ROI, build up a bankroll, and basically feel more confident. Right now I've dipped down to around 9% and I don't feel confident about the move to 22s, even if I have another 79 to go. If necessary I'll do another 200-300.

I've had a downswing in the last 120. I understand there's variance, but if some of you experienced guys can do a sanity check on my SNG graphs I'd be really appreciative.

SNG graphs (http://www.sahala.net/sng/)

For the last 100 I feel like I've barely been eeking into 3rd place, and if it's heads up I'm usually short stacked by 3:1. I plan on taking a break for a week to study my HH and identify trouble spots, in particular the 4th and 6th place finishes. Is there anything else I should drill down on?

Thanks in advance.

[tigerite]

When you're short-stacked ITM just take more risks, that's what I do, and don't let your opponent rest for a second HU in the same situation.

Like this

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (3 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t1125)
BB (t4100)
Button (t2775)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1125 (All-In)</font>, BB calls t975.

Flop: (t2250) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t2250) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t2250) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2250

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Qh Td (full house, tens full of jacks).
BB has Ac 9d (two pair, jacks and tens).
Outcome: Hero wins t2250. </font>

[GtrHtr]

Very nice stats. +50% top 4 finishes. The high 6th place finishes may mean you are either losing to many chips with marginal hands or being too aggressive early. As you said you would, study those HH's and see.

Very high ITM vs 4ths. I'd say good overall, but guess that you are not playing the bubble aggressively enough thus, "barely eeking into 3d place."

Finish your remaining games to 1000 or whatever. Move up to the 22's!

[mlagoo]

i think you've got to up the aggression on the bubble.

actually, i don't really get it. you have a ton of 4ths and also a ton of 3rds. im not even sure hows thats possible.

but that many 3rds is pretty rough. missing out on a lot of money there. my 3rd-1st percentages (offhand, i'm at work now) are something like 9% 3rd, 14% 2nd, 16% 1st. helps make up for all my freakin 4th-7ths.

edit: just to say that at the end of the day, you're still winning, and thats the main thing. keep it up. these are just suggestions i guess so you can win more. heh. good luck.

[tigerite]

Mine's about the same, but my 4th's are even less than my 3rds, which is weird. Still got those damn 6th's that are equal to my 1st's though. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Jay]

I'm sorry - off topic. But where did you get those graphs? They look incredible.

j.

[mlagoo]

i'm thinking now that maybe you're tightening up around ~6 players left, and that's why you're going out between 4th and 3rd so frequently. you're running out of chips.

maybe you just need to loosen up and get aggressive around that time, so you can start taking chips from all the other tight players. I tend to enter the money with the chip lead, and it really helps being able to take the loss when you get in as a 60-40 favorite and still have chips to work with.

[wulfheir]

nice results.

[horne_dawg]

Jay this is what your are looking for;

NEW Spreadsheet: 2.4b w/ Daily Summary (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2718711&amp;page=6&amp;view=c ollapsed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=&amp;fpart=1)

[Nicholasp27]

the high 3/4 then 2nd then 1st tells me u aren't being aggressive on the bubble so u are getting blinded out of a lot of tourneys...when u do make it itm, u have hardly any chips, so u get called when u push so u get a coinflip...u lose and are 3rd or u win and still are low on chips


try being more aggressive in the bubble...push into a stack that is roughly the same size as yours (w/in a few bbs) when the big stack is out and u'll find that they fold a lot of times


u'll end up having more 1sts and 4th/5th than 2/3 and your roi will increase

my roi is higher than my itm and my 1sts are equal to 2+3 and greater than any other single occurance since i've started reading posts on here and learning how to steal on the bubble

[samr]

I think I have the same problem as you at the $11s.

My finish distribution is 10.2% 1st /images/graemlins/confused.gif, 16.8% 2nd, 18.6% 3rd, 11.5% 4th, 12.8% 5th, 13.3% 6th. &lt;10% 7-10th /images/graemlins/confused.gif

I think I'm missing a few easy cutoff/button/SB pushes on the bubble and even when I do win a 60/40 or so to make it ITM, I'm still sufficiently short that winning another one doesn't propel me into 1st/2nd. Thus, I get a lot of 3rd places. Or perhaps I can't win a 60/40. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

I have a 25.9% ROI, so at least I'm winning, but I'm going to stick with the $11s until I get a better distribution of 1st places, even though I'm way over bankrolled for the $11s (and even for the $22s).

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a 25.9% ROI, so at least I'm winning, but I'm going to stick with the $11s until I get a better distribution of 1st places

[/ QUOTE ]

You're doing great, I wouldn't worry about your finish distribution. Sure you could get more firsts, but this might be more than offset by a lot less ITMs. You're doing great at the only number that matters. I wouldn't fix it if it's not broken.

[mlagoo]

One HUGE leak that I have, that you appear to have sorted out, is an absurd number of 7th-10ths. I think 8th-10th account for roughly 15% of my finishes, with 7th (I don't get this) accounting for I think another 15% or so.

I go kinda crazy early =/

[sahala]

Thanks for the responses, all. I might be PMing a few of you for some more questions. I appreciate the time.

The graphs were generated by SNG tracker.

linky (http://sng.pokercomment.com)

[sahala]

Ok I went over some HH during lunch with a co-worker. He says I might be playing too much poker, meaning getting into too many situations earlier that are marginally +EV, chasing big draws too much at L2.

I'm ditching mid suited connector play. It's too much of a leak.

[Nicholasp27]

that will give u a slightly larger stack going into the bubble, but ur distribution still shows that u aren't aggressive enough on the bubble...u are getting blinded out too much

start stealing when blinds get to 150+ and watch your dist change

[sahala]

So here's the deal. I am stealing but I believe my push range is just too narrow. I basically push with Ax, K9+, and pocket pairs. I also push on the big stack when small stacks are around 3xBB, and in the SB with almost anything.

Should I be stealing all the time? I almost always wait till the button late position. Am I being a wuss?

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
So here's the deal. I am stealing but I believe my push range is just too narrow. I basically push with Ax, K9+, and pocket pairs. I also push on the big stack when small stacks are around 3xBB, and in the SB with almost anything.

Should I be stealing all the time? I almost always wait till the button late position. Am I being a wuss?

[/ QUOTE ]

I know these things are somewhat mechanical...but not this much. Dont give yourself a pushrange from x postion and stick to it...start paying extra attention to stack sizes...

i.e. You have KTo and on the button, folded to you, BB has 3 BBs...1 of them has been posted. I might fold this sometimes because the whole point is that you want his blind, not a call. He is so likely to call here and although it likely a +EV raise, I want most of my +EV to lie with the FE. IOW, I dont want to showdown except for my best hands.

Even the above example is arguable depending on your stack, other stacks, # of players left, table mood (agressive or passive) etc...

What is your stack size and how many are equal with you? Is there one big stack 3 medium stax and 1 small? R u the small, 1 of the mediums or large? All of these factors might change your steal range.

Have you had a lot of big hands recently raised with no action?

I.e. yesterday I got AK, QQ, with no action on my raises...I was then dealt A9 in a position I would normally raise/push from near the bubble. I tossed it bc now there it is maybe 30% more likely that someone will spitecall (with a decent holding) and hence my FE is shot...If I had been quiet up til then, I would push it. Just an example.

The more you play, the more these things will become 2nd nature.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

You're doing great, I wouldn't worry about your finish distribution.

[/ QUOTE ]

For now, that is. If you plan to move up then you are going to want to do something about it.

[ QUOTE ]
Sure you could get more firsts, but this might be more than offset by a lot less ITMs.

[/ QUOTE ]

And this is bad because? 1st pays more than twice as much as 3rd.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You're doing great, I wouldn't worry about your finish distribution.

[/ QUOTE ]

For now, that is. If you plan to move up then you are going to want to do something about it.

[ QUOTE ]
Sure you could get more firsts, but this might be more than offset by a lot less ITMs.

[/ QUOTE ]

And this is bad because? 1st pays more than twice as much as 3rd.

[/ QUOTE ]

ITM bragging rights dude....duh!

[Nicholasp27]

read these forums a lot more to get an idea of how to steal more effectively...don't look at it like sklansky hand rankings, where u push with ax,k9+,pp in such and such situtation...many times when stealing the stacks/blinds are much more important than ur cards...that is, u may be missing many opportunities that are 'push any 2' or 'push top 50%'

for instance, there is a big stack, a small stack and 2 mid stacks...u are one of the mid stacks...in a perfect world, u are raising/pushing against the mid stack, as he doesn't wanna get into a coinflip with u when the small stack is getting close to blinding out...he wants his ITM