Discussing a play suggested by ss authority on a site( a little long)

[stokken]

An acclaimed ss authority on an internett tex hold em site has the following hand to flopp suggestion

You hold JhTs limping after 5 players(no reads provided nor stated if u are a blind or not)

Flopp comes AhQh2s.

He claims folding is right( bear in mind there is dependent on position 6-8 players in, and thus 6-8sb)

Ok the way I see it there are 4 kings who gives the nut str8, one of which will complete a flush draw but give u a redraw to nut straightflush and second nut flush, and any heart gives u the draw to second nut flush
Any 8 or 9 gives u a wheel draw and again if it is a heart draw to second nut flush

Would u automuck this hand?
If so why?
I believe it is a hand that can be played
What kind of opposition would make u lean against a fold?
Of course if the action gets wild before it is your turn I`d dropp it
But seeing the turn is ok to my best of knowledge

Comments please? With reasoning

[MrStretchie]

Agreed. Seems pretty weak to me.
Btw: your redraw if K/images/graemlins/heart.gif hits is to the nut flush, not second nut.

[Uglyowl]

Interesting hand.

Agreed what? Fold or call?

Personally I would see the turn if you got a bunch of limpers again after the flop.

AKQ board may just be too lucrative to pass up for one more bet with many people still in the pot.

[arch12]

I think the way this hand should be played is highly dependent on your position. In early position with the bettor to your right, I feel it is an easy fold. The number of players yet to act and the prospect of being raised makes the hand unplayable in this situation. Conversely, in late position or good relative position I feel this hand can be played on profitably. I think position plays an integral part in deciding whether or not to continue with marginal/weak draws.

[drewjustdrew]

Fold.

1. This flop wreaks of more than just a bet-call situation.

2. You have 3 decent outs and 1 marginal out/redraw, but are getting at best 12-1 on the call, when 15-1 or better would be desireable. If it had been raised preflop, I would feel better about the call.

3. Even if in the long run, calling or folding have about the same expectation (not sure, but I assume calling is worse), you should opt for less variance, which is clearly folding.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if in the long run, calling or folding have about the same expectation (not sure, but I assume calling is worse)

[/ QUOTE ]
I think that folding always has zero expectation and thus means that calling must also have zero expectation to be equal. I don't think this is likely calling probably has a positive or negative expectation here.

[ QUOTE ]
you should opt for less variance, which is clearly folding.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why do you contend that we should opt for less variance?

[jba]

with this many players the flush draw is very scary.

if you are completely closing this action this may be a very marginal call. I would like to see something closer to 15-1 pot odds on this call, if you end up getting 19-2 we lose -- this means if we are not closing the action on this board we must fold.

the thing you are forgetting is that if we hit a K on the turn we are going to go nuts, and at that point there is a huge possibility of being outdrawn -- implied odds are in trouble in that regard. Also with this many people on a broadway board esp after hitting a king, you could have a villain with a boat redraw against you on the river. If you hit your K on the turn it's possible your opponents will have something like 15 outs against you. that's pretty rough if you ask me.

edit: changed jack to king

[drewjustdrew]

I think you mean King.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
the thing you are forgetting is that if we hit a J on the turn we are going to go nuts, and at that point there is a huge possibility of being outdrawn

[/ QUOTE ]
/images/graemlins/confused.gif Are you suggesting that turning a Jack is giving us the best hand on the turn? I'm guessing you meant to say "if we hit a K on the turn".

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you mean King.

[/ QUOTE ]

yep

[W. Deranged]

1. The fact that the "expert" did not give your position, the number of players to act behind you, or any reads suggests that he is not as expert as he claims to be.

2. Your position relative to the flop bettor is very important here, as are the reads on players yet to act:

-Are you likely to get raised behind you/are players behind you aggro?
-Is the bet to your immediate right or have there been several callers between you and the flop bettor; e.g. if it's bet in early position and there are 3 callers to you, even if it gets raised behind you with so much in the pot already and strong implied odds I can't think calling would ever be horrible in that situation.
-Have early position players shown the propensity to check-raise?
-Do certain players prefer to get aggressive on the turn, hence paying off your hand particularly handsomely if you hit?


And so on and so forth. In a large multi-way pot in position with low/moderate chance of having to call another bet here I think there will be many situations within the described parameters where folding the flop would be quite bad.

[drewjustdrew]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Even if in the long run, calling or folding have about the same expectation (not sure, but I assume calling is worse)

[/ QUOTE ]
I think that folding always has zero expectation and thus means that calling must also have zero expectation to be equal. I don't think this is likely calling probably has a positive or negative expectation here.

[ QUOTE ]
you should opt for less variance, which is clearly folding.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why do you contend that we should opt for less variance?

[/ QUOTE ]

With regard to your second question, it was in the context of all expectations being equal, lower variance is more desireable. Simple Sharpe Ratio in investments. Why bet 5 to win 10 50% of the time, when you can just not bet at all and have the exact same expectation? Unless you are risk loving there is no added benefit to taking the bet other than to be risking something.

The only way I fold this is if I have a tag on my left and right and am going to get trapped for multiple bets..

This hand is laying you good immediate pot odds.. and the implied odds for the flush and straight are huge..

against any sort of typical opponents in SS I would raise into a field, bet into a field.. but never make it 2 to the field.

I would play this according to pot odds if it were 2 or more to me..

This hand seems pretty strong in a huge m-w pot to me...

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
You hold JhTs limping after 5 players(no reads provided nor stated if u are a blind or not)

Flopp comes AhQh2s.

He claims folding is right( bear in mind there is dependent on position 6-8 players in, and thus 6-8sb)

[/ QUOTE ]
Everyone slow down and STOP thinking about poker like this.

This situation could be a call, could be a fold, could even be a raise in a perfect situation.

So, what is the situation?

What type of players are your opponents? Aggressive? Passive?

Where did the bet come from? up front? to your right?

What position are you in? the HyJack, CO, button? (better be the button for the most part, CO is fine)

What are your pot odds? What are your effective odds, implied odds, reverse implied?

Is there likelihood of an aggressive player check-raising this flop if the bet was to your immediate right?

I have no idea who this so-called 'authority' is but his answer is just the safe route due to the lack of information.

Poker cannot be analyzed in a vacuum, there is no cook-book. Street by street, opponent by opponent, situation after situation is how you all should be thinking.

Good luck and play well,
Joe Tall

[drewjustdrew]

I considered all those things. Fold. A gut shot straight draw with a backdoor non-nut flush draw. Fold. Potential for multiple players to have good made hands. Fold. Fold this all day and all night. Save your money for good draws and better situations of which there are a ton.

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
I considered all those things. Fold. A gut shot straight draw with a backdoor non-nut flush draw. Fold. Potential for multiple players to have good made hands. Fold. Fold this all day and all night. Save your money for good draws and better situations of which there are a ton.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, if the person to your left bets and everyone calls... you're folding?

-d

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
with this many players the flush draw is very scary.

[/ QUOTE ]
The more high flush cards that are out, the less likely someone is drawing to the flush because people tend to muck 2 suited cards with no high-card value. In this case we know where the A, Q, and J are so this is a lot less worrisome flush draw than most.

[ QUOTE ]
the thing you are forgetting is that if we hit a K on the turn we are going to go nuts, and at that point there is a huge possibility of being outdrawn -- implied odds are in trouble in that regard.

[/ QUOTE ]
If a non-heart K turns, you have the nuts. And with three broadway cards on board you would expect to get at least some action with your nuts.

The are only 10 flush cards unaccounted for so almost 80% of the time no flush card is going to river and when it does, most of the time nobody's going to have a flush.

So except for that < 10% of the time someone actually makes a flush and the very small amount of time the board pairs and makes someone a FH, your straight will hold up. Minor note: the risk of a FH is also reduced here since most FH's are going to be to hands that would have raised PF and this pot isn't raised.

I would argue that one of the reasons for making a somewhat loose call here is that you have pretty decent implied odds. I would give myself 4 outs, maybe even just a smidgen more since I think our backdoor flush draw is probably good and more than compensates for the amount we need to discount K/images/graemlins/heart.gif. I would expect about 7-1 pot odds to be about the break even point, since I think hero can count on picking up 2bbs (4sbs) in implied bets if he hits his straight.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
I considered all those things. Fold. A gut shot straight draw with a backdoor non-nut flush draw. Fold. Potential for multiple players to have good made hands. Fold. Fold this all day and all night. Save your money for good draws and better situations of which there are a ton.

[/ QUOTE ]

How did you consider all those things when the action is not there nor any descriptions of your opponents?

You aren't thinking about poker correctly.

[drewjustdrew]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I considered all those things. Fold. A gut shot straight draw with a backdoor non-nut flush draw. Fold. Potential for multiple players to have good made hands. Fold. Fold this all day and all night. Save your money for good draws and better situations of which there are a ton.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, if the person to your left bets and everyone calls... you're folding?

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, you got me. I'll call in that case only, but I won't like it and I definitely won't love my hand like some other posters in this thread.

[drewjustdrew]

[ QUOTE ]


How did you consider all those things when the action is not there nor any descriptions of your opponents?



[/ QUOTE ]

If this is going to be your line of thinking, then why post anything other than "It depends" ever? Seems like even if the OP included such information, it would really only be his interpretation, which you would have to take with a grain of salt. Maybe he sucks at reading opponents, or is not as good as you are at it at the least, so there is always room for enough misinformation to not be able to give an appropriate response.

I fold because even in the optimal situation, I see this as break-even at best.

[meep_42]

I'm calling a single bet a lot of the time here, but that's just me and I like to peel with draws to the nuts.

-d

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
If this is going to be your line of thinking, then why post anything other than "It depends" ever? Seems like even if the OP included such information, it would really only be his interpretation, which you would have to take with a grain of salt. Maybe he sucks at reading opponents, or is not as good as you are at it at the least, so there is always room for enough misinformation to not be able to give an appropriate response.

[/ QUOTE ]

You aren't thinking about poker correctly.

[chief444]

Folding this in SOME situation is just ridiculous. Folding it in others is well and good. I think that's Joe's point. It's a fairly vague question.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding this in SOME situation is just ridiculous. Folding it in others is well and good. I think that's Joe's point. It's a fairly vague question.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are thinking about poker correctly. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
You are thinking about poker correctly.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks Joe. It only took two years of studying and playing 30-40 hrs/wk. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[drewjustdrew]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Folding this in SOME situation is just ridiculous. Folding it in others is well and good. I think that's Joe's point. It's a fairly vague question.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are thinking about poker correctly. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

That isn't much different than what I said, I just have a different interpretation of "SOME" and "ridiculous". If I were to do a FYP on Chief it would be

[ QUOTE ]
Folding this in a select few situations is slightly incorrect but not a major blunder . Folding it in others is well and good.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just think in the broad spectrum of possibilities, very few are profitable. Enough in general to call it a fold.

[callmedonnie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You hold JhTs limping after 5 players(no reads provided nor stated if u are a blind or not)

Flopp comes AhQh2s.

He claims folding is right( bear in mind there is dependent on position 6-8 players in, and thus 6-8sb)

[/ QUOTE ]
Everyone slow down and STOP thinking about poker like this.



[/ QUOTE ]

thanks joe. this thread needed that.

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Folding this in SOME situation is just ridiculous. Folding it in others is well and good. I think that's Joe's point. It's a fairly vague question.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are thinking about poker correctly. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

That isn't much different than what I said, I just have a different interpretation of "SOME" and "ridiculous". If I were to do a FYP on Chief it would be

[ QUOTE ]
Folding this in a select few situations is slightly incorrect but not a major blunder . Folding it in others is well and good.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just think in the broad spectrum of possibilities, very few are profitable. Enough in general to call it a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You haven't given any situations where a call is correct, nor any situations where a fold is correct. So how can we know that you have any idea of what you're talking about?

Here's a better analysis:

1 - The more passive the players are, the more likely you should be to call. Reason: You are likely to only have to pay one bet to see the turn; if you miss, the turn may get checked through, allowing you to see the river for free; and if a bad card like a heart comes on the turn, you may be able to draw to your 2nd nut flush for cheap (one bet or even free).
2 - The closer the bet is to your right, the more likely you are to fold.
Reason: You may end up paying 2 or more bets on the flop; if you hit on the turn, the bet may come from the same spot, which means you have 2 not-so-good choices - either raise and force everyone to call 2 cold (when they may be drawing basically dead), or just call, and allow single J or T hands a cheap draw to chop on the river, (plus you're not maximizing your win). Also, if the flush comes on the turn and you're bet into, you may again have to pay 2 or more bets to draw to your 2nd nut flush.

That's how you argue your case for a call/fold.

[chief444]

Drew,

I don't think it counts as an FYP if you take what I wrote and make it less correct.

There's something we term implied odds that make this a very profitable call in more than a select few situations...hence my wording of "some situations". As an example, there is a bet and some callers and it's up to you closing the action or close to closing the action with a passive player or two behind you. In this situation, folding is ridiculous. Hence my phrase "ridiculous". If you don't agree then please enlighten me as to why you don't agree.

There are other situations you'll encounter where it will appear or be too likely that you'll have to put more immediate money in on the current street than you'll recoup in implied odds on later streets and therefore a fold will be peachy.

Generally speaking "saving money for more profitable draws" as you say is less optimal than making the decision with the highest expectation every time.

Matt

[drewjustdrew]

[ QUOTE ]
Generally speaking "saving money for more profitable draws" as you say is less optimal than making the decision with the highest expectation every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. My words got ahead of myself.

[JinX11]

Raise and cap all streets...and river a K/images/graemlins/club.gif. BAM! That's how I roll.

Otherwise, it depends.

[drewjustdrew]

I'm coming around to your thinking, which is rare on these forums for me. It goes to my previous point about variance and expectation and your implied odds description. Lets say the flop is EV neutral between folding and calling. Calling a 14-1 shot with 14 bets in the pot qualifies. Calling gives us an option on later streets (which I was somewhat disregarding). If we hit our hand on the turn, even if it is only a 3 outer, we have essentially freerolled into a fairly dominant position. If we don't hit our hand, we evaluate from there, but the flop decision was still EV neutral.

[chief444]

Yeah, you definitely don't need 14:1 to call here. I peel gutshots pretty frequently with like 6:1 or thereabout. Implied odds when you're drawing to very strong hands make all the difference. Glad you're coming around.

[derick]

[ QUOTE ]
An acclaimed ss authority on an internett tex hold em site has the following hand to flopp suggestion

[/ QUOTE ]

Who? I hope we arn't wasting time with a Ken Waren problem.... :-)