Review: Hand 20

[slavic]

- - - HAND 20 - - -
PreFlop: Hero is BB with 7 Q (9 Players)
UTG calls, 7 folds, Hero checks,

Flop: (2.50 SB) 4 6 8 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero folds,

I think this is a clear bet on the flop. In a short handed game its nearly a checkraise but the Hero here likely has way more in the way of outs than he or she gives themselves credit for even to the point that Q high may be best. Now I have no profile on the other player, but I can't see check fold as the best play here.

[Rev. Good Will]

I dont know... if UTG is position aware, then hero might be a serious underdog here

[Hellmouth]

[ QUOTE ]
- - - HAND 20 - - -
PreFlop: Hero is BB with 7 Q (9 Players)
UTG calls, 7 folds, Hero checks,

Flop: (2.50 SB) 4 6 8 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero folds,

I think this is a clear bet on the flop. In a short handed game its nearly a checkraise but the Hero here likely has way more in the way of outs than he or she gives themselves credit for even to the point that Q high may be best. Now I have no profile on the other player, but I can't see check fold as the best play here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that pot odds dictate a fold here. There are 7 cards that may give hero the best hand. 4 for the straight and 3Q's. Discount by one out for the weak Q kicker and you get 6 outs==>6.67:1. Therefore there need to be approximately 7 SB in the pot to call. There are only 3.5. This is a clear fold.

Greg

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
- - - HAND 20 - - -
PreFlop: Hero is BB with 7 Q (9 Players)
UTG calls, 7 folds, Hero checks,

Flop: (2.50 SB) 4 6 8 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero folds,

I think this is a clear bet on the flop. In a short handed game its nearly a checkraise but the Hero here likely has way more in the way of outs than he or she gives themselves credit for even to the point that Q high may be best. Now I have no profile on the other player, but I can't see check fold as the best play here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh. With a gutshot, a semibluff on the flop might be good, especially if UTG is somewhat tight postflop. There are lots of UTG limping hands which miss this, but have two overcards, and might call the flop bet even though they don't have odds (which doesn't help us because we don't have the best hand). He might also fold them, which would be nice.

But just letting this hand go is fine. You're not going to get into many heads up confrontations with UTG unless he's raising to isolate you all the time. There's not much meta-game to be picked up because it's a full ring game, and you're not going to get inside of *HIS* head in any real way. It's a small pot that's barely worth fighting over, you have a weak hand and a weak draw.

If you're betting this all the time, you're probably spewing in several places. Sometimes bet, sometimes fold. Use the context of the game to help you to decide.

[McGahee]

Yeah, I am much more willing to make a play at this than the "3-way J5 hand on a AJx flop" thread yesterday. There's just a great chance that we have 10 clean outs here against an UTG limper, and they fold to a flop bet more often than you think.

[Absolution]

10 seems optimistic to me, but it's situational of course. If the player is position aware he likely has a small PP, a mid-high suited connector, or Axs. You're not getting 10 against those.

If he's a 'donk' playing every hand like many micro'ers then you can make a play for this tiny pot, but I wouldn't expect him to fold much either if he's your typical micro player.

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
10 seems optimistic to me, but it's situational of course. If the player is position aware he likely has a small PP, a mid-high suited connector, or Axs. You're not getting 10 against those.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're getting 10 against a lot of those. What am I missing?

[ QUOTE ]

If he's a 'donk' playing every hand like many micro'ers then you can make a play for this tiny pot, but I wouldn't expect him to fold much either if he's your typical micro player.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's true

[slavic]

But just letting this hand go is fine. You're not going to get into many heads up confrontations with UTG unless he's raising to isolate you all the time. There's not much meta-game to be picked up because it's a full ring game, and you're not going to get inside of *HIS* head in any real way. It's a small pot that's barely worth fighting over, you have a weak hand and a weak draw.

Aaron - I'm not picking on you, I think that you are espousing a position that most players take. I think that it's wrong, and I know it's wrong as you get into the mid-limits.

UTG will totally whiff the flop around 65% of the time, however this flop has a higher than average chance of missing him, just like if 3 high cards came we could say he has a higher than average chance of having hit the flop. As you noted the pot is small, and that's not unimportant because it makes it the perfect size to bluff at, and we should be bluffing at it at least 1 in 3.5 times, but in this case a bit more because UTG likely has nothing, and we have up to 10 outs, (likely more with scare cards) to improve later.

Also note that most of the time we are not already ahead our ten outs are going to be clean. You may want to degrade them a bit, but players tend to do that too much in heads up pots. If we have ten outs then we need 3.7 : 1 to continue, and we are close enough to take one off on the flop especially if the player is likely to check the turn.

In general if you have to call, it's better to bet.