J6s - Check or bet the river?

[JoshuaD]

I talked this hand over with Ishmael and Jason, we didn't come to a concensus.

No reads on BB, UTG is a 51/11/2 after about a hundred hands.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

River: (9.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero ???

What're you doing on this river and why?

[Catt]

I bet this, hope if BB hit his flush he goes for the overcall with a paired board and if he is a donk he calls with his T. I reluctantly call a BB raise. I'm not worried about UTG and don't think I should be.

[Stack]

I bet call this everytime. I would love to hear the defferent arguments that you guys made, since you disagreed.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet call this everytime. I would love to hear the defferent arguments that you guys made, since you disagreed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was advocating check/call.

It seems to me that we're not getting much value from a bet. BB played his hand exactly like a draw, and he's very like to be either raising or folding if I bet.

At the same time, there's a good chance I'm splitting with UTG, or worse, he was making the free card play with a diamond or straight draw.

I don't like having to put 2 bets in here when I'm behind and probably not getting too much more when I'm ahead. If I could fold to a raise I'd like betting much more. But I can't because BB is an unknown and could raise a hand like KT here for all I know.

[Stack]

I think splitting is almost out of the question. He would have made some noise on the turn with a J.

I think he plays the same way with a T, K9 (db gutter on the flop), 88, and maybe a 7. He pays you off with any of these, no?

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
I think splitting is almost out of the question. He would have made some noise on the turn with a J.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. Alot of guys are stupid enough to "put me on AJ" and then still believe I've got them on the turn.

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
I think splitting is almost out of the question. He would have made some noise on the turn with a J.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I'd be very surprised if a 51 VPIP 2 AF contented himself with a call on this turn holding a J with both other players in for a bet. I feel pretty good about beating UTG (and not too worried that he folds -- I think it is a clear value bet against him alone). BB did play his hand like a draw and one of the obvious draws got there; but he also played his hand like a pansy-ish T or a straight draw. I think you need to bet this for value expecting to collect a bet from UTG and possibly a bet from BB. And again, if BB hit his flush, there's a not insignificant chance that he calls the river bet going for an overcall and/or because he has a smallish flush -- when this happens you're only putting one bet in whether you ck/cl or bet; but you miss bets when it sure appears that UTG is calling one and BB might call one since he is unknown.

[StellarWind]

I think your flop 3-bet is out of line. You are either buried or facing strong draws and you just don't have the pot equity. I would call and lead a safe turn.

I check the river because I don't beat much of anything that raised the flop and I have to call a raise to get my chop.

BB is a huge issue as he could have almost anything including a jack, a flush, a straight, or a full house. The draw possibilities are obvious but he's also in an awkward spot with a flopped monster or after making the common mistake of not raising the flop with a jack.

Checking may easily save when it comes back two bets.

Checking also represents an overplayed hand. I expect UTG to bet my chops so we can charge the third player.

[JrJordan]

Looks like a standard bet to me. Villain has a 7 or T more often than the flush draw IMO. If he raises I'd still call down on the chance he has a lower J or is raising a rivered K.

[stir]

I agree the flop 3-bet is out of line.

What I find interesting is that Jr, Catt, and Stack did not mention it - implying they think a 3-bet on this flop is the best line??

[Catt]

I don't mind it as much as StellarWind does, though I'd prefer to stop 'n go a safe turn.

Without a real read on his postflop play, UTG's stats indicate a very aggressive player and I think the range of hands he can raise here with one player to act behind him is wide enough that our virtually naked J is good often enough that if it's a mistake it's not a substantial one, IMHO. As StellarWind points out, it is the largish number of draws that constrain my enthusiasm for the flop three-bet.

Frankly, I focused on the thread title and the river decision and didn't really think about Hero's play on prior streets all that much (focusing on Villain's reactions to Hero's play).

[TwoNiner]

Everyone played it like a draw. BB calling everything and AGGressive raising flop in position then slowing down. Almost every draw just got there. Check call would be my line, but I over use it so buyer beware. If your going to bet and the big blind is passive you might be able to find a fold in a bet... raise by big blind scenario.. but i never do.