Easy River Value bet vs 54/33/1.4.... and Den?

[MAxx]

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

River: (6 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#666666"> ....Hero does what with intension of what? </font>

[timprov]

I think you hear from an ace before this. I don't see where the value is coming from, unless you figure he'll call you playing the board when you clearly aren't.

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero does what with intension of what? </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

Checks with the intention of swearing if he missed a value bet.

I don't really know what I'm talking about (new to the forums), but it seems reasonable that he has an ace with a weak kicker?

Plus, if he has a 10 he might not raise you because he has the low end of the full house. I would bet hoping he has an ace, and fold if raised. If you check, he'll bet his 10 anyway or else check his ace. I like betting.

Comments for the noob?

[maxpowers21]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really know what I'm talking about (new to the forums), but it seems reasonable that he has an ace with a weak kicker?

Plus, if he has a 10 he might not raise you because he has the low end of the full house. I would bet hoping he has an ace, and fold if raised. If you check, he'll bet his 10 anyway or else check his ace. I like betting.

Comments for the noob?

[/ QUOTE ]

I cant even fold this if raised on the river, it will be bluffed far to often here, with crazy retardo monkey hands.

Against a bad opponent I will Bet this river, so most of the time just value bet here.

[Stack]

If he filled up, he has to figure that Hero will check behind with an A on this board. I don't think he'll risk it to be checked through often. I bet/call to get value from an A or lower pocket pair and from a bluff raise.

unless you have better reads...

[mscags]

I bet and fold to a reraise after crying. I think there is a good chance that you are ahead. If he reraises you though I think it is a clear fold. I can't think of any hand you can beat here, unless he is known to make bluffs like this.

[Stack]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet and fold to a reraise after crying. I think there is a good chance that you are ahead. If he reraises you though I think it is a clear fold. I can't think of any hand you can beat here, unless he is known to make bluffs like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't fold here. I'm just not that good. 9 BBs. This board is way too bluff-inducing for a player who raises 33% of his hands preflop.

[MAxx]

Hero bets river w/ intension of calling reraise. I thought I'd seek value from his weak ace and I just thought that this guy was sufficiently crazy enough to bluff c/r river.

This time it worked out fine. Hero bets, villain calls with his A7o and MHIG.

[hockey1]

This is an easy check. Not to be too harsh, but those advocating betting have a fundamental (and widely shared) misunderstanding of how to play the river.

[MAxx]

Hockey, you might be absolutely correct. The thing is that you just say blankety blank is easy.....and blankety blank those that disagree are wrong. If this is so fundamentally easy, shouldn't it be fairly easy to give a good reason or explaination.

[etizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
Not to be too harsh

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL

[hockey1]

What are the possible hands he's played the way he has through the turn? Which of those are you ahead of on the river? Which are you behind? What's the likelihood he has hands falling into each of those two groups? Of the hands you're ahead of, how many of those would call a bet?

Easy.

[MAxx]

[ QUOTE ]
What are the possible hands he's played the way he has through the turn? <font color="blue"> Extremely wide range </font> Which of those are you ahead of on the river? <font color="blue"> everything but fullboats </font> Which are you behind? <font color="blue"> da boats </font> What's the likelihood he has hands falling into each of those two groups <font color="blue"> Well, it's certainly possible he has a boat...but he's just been checkcallin all the way with a wide range. He could be drawin, underpairing, Aceing, or getting his boat filled. He's been real quiet though. </font> ? Of the hands you're ahead of, how many of those would call a bet? <font color="blue"> Assuming he hasn't played KK or JJ weird and then scared or forgets his underpairs are now discounted, it pretty much leaves Aces and bluff attempts</font> <font color="blue"> I think i would have heard from a Q earlier and a T likely bets our river instead of cr... so I think I have that going for me. If guy doesnt call my river bet, does that make it any less of a river bet just because he didnt have an Ace? To Answer your question dircectly..... I get value from 3 aces and beat if he's holding 4 other cards. He's not given much indication he has one of the 4 other cards yet. I'm thinking it's still a good value bet, albeit thin. </font>

Easy. <font color="blue"> Thanks for expanding your answer, but I think your approach is a little too dissmissive. Stuff aint always easy, even if you'd like it to be. </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

[Danenania]

Yo,

Bet and call a raise.

[etizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
Of the hands you're ahead of, how many of those would call a bet?


[/ QUOTE ]

EVERY SINGLE ONE. All of them. Villain will hope for a chop much of the time, he doesnt even need cards.

[etizzle]

You're calling a raise here? I think if he bluffs he bets out.

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]
You're calling a raise here? I think if he bluffs he bets out.

[/ QUOTE ]

So few made hands make sense for him that if he raises I think there's a strong chance it's a bluff.

[wheelz]

[ QUOTE ]
So few made hands make sense for him that if he raises I think there's a strong chance it's a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I want to bet-fold, but you're absolutely right, it's kinda tough to fold this one

[wheelz]

I realize that at the limits you play this might be a check, but you have to realize that at 10/20 6-max you will get called by some disgusting hands on the river

[hockey1]

I don't think I agree, but worth taking into consideration.

[hockey1]

[ QUOTE ]
What are the possible hands he's played the way he has through the turn? Extremely wide range Which of those are you ahead of on the river? everything but fullboats Which are you behind? da boats What's the likelihood he has hands falling into each of those two groups Well, it's certainly possible he has a boat...but he's just been checkcallin all the way with a wide range. He could be drawin, underpairing, Aceing, or getting his boat filled. He's been real quiet though. ? Of the hands you're ahead of, how many of those would call a bet? Assuming he hasn't played KK or JJ weird and then scared or forgets his underpairs are now discounted, it pretty much leaves Aces and bluff attempts I think i would have heard from a Q earlier and a T likely bets our river instead of cr... so I think I have that going for me. If guy doesnt call my river bet, does that make it any less of a river bet just because he didnt have an Ace? To Answer your question dircectly..... I get value from 3 aces and beat if he's holding 4 other cards. He's not given much indication he has one of the 4 other cards yet. I'm thinking it's still a good value bet, albeit thin.

Easy. Thanks for expanding your answer, but I think your approach is a little too dissmissive. Stuff aint always easy, even if you'd like it to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your thought process is ok, but I disagree with some of your conclusions. Most importantly, there are a bunch of draws that might be calling you through the turn that wouldn't call a bet on the river and you'd probably hear from an A long before the river if he had one of those. So, through the turn, in order of likelihood, I'd put villain on (1) a Q or T, (2) flush draw, (3) inside straight draw, (4) weak A or maybe a baby pair. You get raised by (1) and lose 2 BB. (2) and (3) don't call a bet. You win one BB from (4). Since you're probably either going to lose 2BB or win 1, for a bet to be correct it must be TWICE as likely you're ahead than behind. If anything I think the opposite is true here.

[etizzle]

I think its close. We will lose the vast majority of the time he c/r here. But can we win 1/10? meh, i dunno. I think if he has garbage he will just call and hope to chop, so there should be no reason to bluff...