Bubble Plays with Baby Pairs

[Pat Southern]

The first two hands are with about 5 left until ITM ($210) from a $100 tournament. The last hand is with 1 until ITM in the same tournament.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP2 (t3956)
MP3 (t9920)
Hero (t5155)
Button (t21764)
SB (t4736)
<font color="#C00000">BB (t8686)</font>
UTG (t5104)
<font color="#C00000">UTG+1 (t1932)</font>
MP1 (t8410)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 pushes (t1932) folded to hero...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP3 (t3056)
CO (t9920)
Hero (t5155)
SB (t22064)
BB (t5336)
UTG (t8686)
UTG+1 (t5104)
MP1 (t1932)
MP2 (t8410)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.
Folded to MP3 who pushes (t3056), folded to hero....


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t2756)
SB (t10320)
Hero (t5155)
UTG (t23864)
UTG+1 (t4436)
MP1 (t10618)
MP2 (t4104)
CO (t8410)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t2700</font>, folded to hero...

[A_PLUS]

tough spots.

How many places pay? What is the average stack? I am very intrigued by the last hand. It is usually a push for me, but I have a feeling it is -EV with the last pay being &gt;2xBuy in

[Pat Southern]

[ QUOTE ]
tough spots.

How many places pay? What is the average stack? I am very intrigued by the last hand. It is usually a push for me, but I have a feeling it is -EV with the last pay being &gt;2xBuy in

[/ QUOTE ]

280 entrants, 30 payed.

[pipster]

I am far from an expert... and am interested in other comments... but I will drop mine in first.

Hand 1 - Easy call. Much smaller stack, probably pushing Any Ace, King, Q here... so you may very well be facing only 1 over or probably a coin flip.

Hand 2 and 3 - I probably fold

[A_PLUS]

I think the 88 hand is a push. Here is why.

I basically think that $EV = % of chips x total prize pool at this point. I dont really get into worrying about a difference until the final table.

So, you will have 4355 after this hand if you fold, which is worth apx. 435$ (4355/280,000)*28K$)

If you push, you have to assume he will call,

You win 10,710 chips ~ $1,071

So, you need to win just over 40% of the time for this push to be correct, which I think is a safe assumption. I also think that they fold to your push at least 10-15% of the time (conservative estimate).

I like my assumptions more when there are only 20 players to go until the final table (like this). I think that giving yourself 12xBB here will adjust your equity accordingly.

[WillMagic]

I fold the first hand and jam with the second and third hands.

Will

[Dave D]

Fold, Fold, Fold.

Without looking at responses, for me these are not the easiest, but still easy folds. In the first two I think it would be different if you were say, in LP and open push. But I really don't see a reason to call away your stack on probably a coinflip against overcards. Especially 44, the only thing you have dominated is 22 or 33, not likely. I just don't think you're desperate enough yet to call in this spot.

For the third hand, UTG's raise screams AK or maybe TT. He's got a lot of chips, and he's raising 3.5 the BB from UTG. I definatly don't think he's stealing, and I don't know why he'd put out a raise like that when he really doesn't need to *from UTG*. To me, he's clearly protecting a high PP or AK or something.

So I fold there too, no need to a coinflip at best.

[woodguy]

The goal of putting your chips in any pot, is to put them in with an edge.

Basically the edge can be:

1) you have a better hand against the range of the opponent in an "even" pot
2) you have folding equity
3) The pot is lying odds that gives +EV with your bet

In hands 1 and 2 I see no edge, as there is no folding equity and you are a dog to a modest range of hands. (AA-66, AKs-A7s, KQs, AKo-A7o, KQo, you are a 42-58 dog),

Yes, you are in a tough spot, but I'd save my ammo for when I have some sort of edge, as hand 1&amp;2 you have 8.6Bb's which isn't quite panic time.

Hand 3 is a different kettle of fish, as you have 5.44 BB's behind (since you posted the BB), it is panic time and 88 is better than you can hope for.

UTG is the big stack, so *may* be raising a little light, but I would welcome a race against two overs here in this spot.

Regards,
Woodguy

[AACardPlayer]

This is probably how I’d play it.
1st hand: Call
2nd hand: Fold
3rd hand: Push if I won the first hand and fold if I lost the 1st hand.

The reason why is because the chips you’d get from winning the first hand would increase your fold equity as villain would call with considerably fewer hands as he wouldn’t be getting the correct odds to call with any two cards anymore. If you lose the first hand, I’d fold, since I doubt calling here is +EV one spot away from ITM.

If I folded the first two, I’d fold the 3rd one as well, (mainly because as you said, you have no FE and also because I’m a woos and like to get paid.)
/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[mts]

quickly my thoughts
44 hand, push, you could easily be squeezed out if you call
66 hand, fold
88 hand, fold, his raise is a little weird though. looks weak

[AACardPlayer]

it be interesting to see what you actually did and the results

[nolanfan34]

Tough hands.

I think the first is a very easy fold. As Wood said, against a possible pushing range, you're going to be a coinflip at the very best. The other problem is the big stack right behind you. If you flat call the push, the big stack is going to be getting great odds to come along as well. That in turn gives the BB even better odds. I'd like to be the first one into the pot with that hand, not the 2nd.

Hand two, I just don't know that you're strong enough there. It's close. I can see a case for pushing or folding. In the heat of the moment, I could easily see pushing there, although again I'd rather be the first one into the pot. On the bubble like that, smaller stacks are usually pushing with mostly strong hands there, if they're willing to risk their chips.

Hand 3, is probably the easiest case for a push. The only concern is that you're guaranteed to get called, since UTG will be getting almost 3-1. 88 is probably good enough to make a stand with though.

[A_PLUS]

Hijack!!

Special thanks to Woodguy and Pat for forcing me to stop pushing baby aces from late postion in party MTTS.

I counted 2 spots where I would have gone broke last night when I wanted to push (I also sat on my hands, so I had an extra second to stop myself). Then I ended up sucking out twice with QJs vs AT and 78s vs AJo on my way to the final table.

Granted I went broke pushing AT from MP, but I know that was +$EV (well unless you get busted by A8)

[AceHiStation]

Hand 1: I hate anything but fold. Don't want to get into cointosses in multi-tables. I consider this move if I'm button in this hand with a large chiplead; however, losing this hand severely cripples you.

Hand 2: This is a tougher decision. I think I fold but could advocate a push accounting for the dead money in the blinds helping out your odds.

Hand 3: I hate the situation, but I probably push and regret it later. Odds of a cointoss are real high.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Special thanks to Woodguy and Pat for forcing me to stop pushing baby aces from late postion in party MTTS.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its a karmic balance of the universe thing.

I told you the sun would start shining once you stopped pushing little A's.

[ QUOTE ]
The less little A's you push, the more times you suckout later in the tourney.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was written with symbols at the temple of Ankor Wat.

Swear to God(s).

It was right below the stone relief of rats playing poker.

Regards,
Woodguy

[jedi]

Hand 1: Fold. You have no folding equity and are going in as small favorite/big dog with a big stack on the button ready to call with any 2 cards vs. short stack all-in.

Hand 2: Fold again. Same type of situation. Players are behind you with bigger stacks willing to call.

Hand 3: This is probably the toughest one. You're only 1 off the money, but UTG is pot committed here if you push pre-flop. You've just posted the BB, will post the SB next. You can conceivably fold here and wait to make the money, but you're not going anywhere after that. If you push and double up, you're still short stacked, though not as desperate as you were before. I hate pushing here. Stop and Go might be the best move, if not folding.

[transmitt]

hard to tell w/o avg. stack etc (I'm posting before reading the responses). But I think I fold, fold, push.

On hand 3 if someone raises before me, I probably put it down as well. If there is a flat call I grit my teeth and push.