flipping coins in a $33

[wuwei]

My read on the button suggests she has two cards.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t1340)
Hero (t1300)
UTG (t2885)
MP (t1620)
Button (t855)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button pushes 855, Hero...

[lastchance]

If you read is right, I think calling is correct here. You're getting good odds, you're a favorite, albeit slightly.

Fold.

Why risk your whole game as a slight favorite? Even if villian has 34os it is a coinflip.

Wait for better days.

[johnnybeef]

Given your read, its a call. But, if there are some limitations, it is a fold. I usually will fold this out of principle.

[gumpzilla]

If you weren't in the BB, I think this is a pretty easy fold. Since you are, I think it's a call. If you fold, you're the shortstack (although button is basically tied with you) and have 5 BBs after passing through the SB next hand. You're getting pretty close to 5:3 to call this, which is a decent price given your read.

[johnny005]

Call this for sure if you feel button can have any 2.. if he is raising with 44+ and K-Js+ then this call will loose you money. I think you have to know your player here to make this call with 22

[ QUOTE ]
Call this for sure if you feel button can have any 2.. if he is raising with 44+ and K-Js+ then this call will loose you money. I think you have to know your player here to make this call with 22

[/ QUOTE ]

44+? Don't you mean 33+? KJs has about the same odds of winning as 35s. This is the danger of twos.

[adanthar]

I take it this is a 2+2'er?

I call, and I don't think it's that close, even though I grit my teeth when I do.

[bluefeet]

i wouldn't call with a gun to my head. you certainly have the time, chips (in relation to other bubblers), and soon...position - to do your own share of blind raping.

Edit: ok, maybe i exaggeated a bit. but i honestly do thing a bit more paitence could put you in a slighty better position to double up.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
I take it this is a 2+2'er?

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually no, but they were loose/bad/agro early on in a way that was closer to correct at the bubble.

[ QUOTE ]
I call, and I don't think it's that close, even though I grit my teeth when I do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yah, that's pretty much what I did.

[tshort]

[ QUOTE ]
i wouldn't call with a gun to my head. you certainly have the time, chips (in relation to other bubblers), and soon...position - to do your own share of blind raping.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would fold with out thinking much about it. Positon, blinds, chips, position... not worth the toss up.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold with out thinking much about it. Positon, blinds, chips, position... not worth the toss up.

[/ QUOTE ]

You guys need to at least stop and consider all the dead money in the pot before stating it's not worth a "toss up."

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
I take it this is a 2+2'er?

I call, and I don't think it's that close, even though I grit my teeth when I do.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a leak for me then. I hate calling here with 55, nevertheless 22. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Scuba Chuck]

Bryan, very very easy fold. Don't think about it, move on. Don't deliberate, move on. Don't let all these punks convince that your read is good so call, because it doesn't matter.

In fact, the above comment reminds me a ton of the fishy players thought process. "I think you're bluffing, so I call." And obviously with no regard to their cards.

Anyway, fold. Feel good about it.

Scuba

95% its a coinflip
5% you're completely dominated

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]

95% its a coinflip
5% you're completely dominated

[/ QUOTE ]
The problem is, you're getting way more than enough odds on that.

.05 * .2 + .95 * .5 = .485.

Coinflipping it up here is a very good thing getting very close to 2:1.

[HelmetCrash]

Guys,

If villain is indeed pushing with any two, it is –200 EV to fold, and +130 EV to call.

Calling EV calculation:

Opponent has two pair, you win 0.059(0.18)955=+10
Opponent has non-pair with a 2, you win 0.08(0.75)955=+57
Opponent has any non-pair and does not hold a 2, you win 0.861(0.55)955=+452
Opponent has two pair, you lose 0.059(0.82)855=-41
Opponent has non-pair with a 2, you lose 0.08(0.25)855=-17
Opponent has any non-pair and does not hold a 2, you lose 0.861(0.45)855=-331
Total EV = 10+57+452-41-17-331 = +130

This is a +330 chip EV difference. If you fold your stack will be 5x the size of the big blind and you will be pushing your stack into situations that have significantly less EV. I don’t know about you guys, but if my stack is 5x the big blind and we are not right on the edge of the bubble, I will put my stack at risk in situations that I assess to have basically a break even EV in order to keep my stack large enough for folding equity. In this context, the +330 EV is difficult to pass up.

The downside is that you have to go into a coinflip situation to see this EV. This is a large negative and it is difficult to quantify how this negative trades off with the +330 chip EV you would be passing up. But there are 5 people remaining so you are not right on the edge of the bubble, and if you lose the coinflip you still are alive with a smaller number of chips.

Given these things you can still argue either way, but in my opinion it is a very close decision with calling the better choice of the two. +330 EV difference is difficult to pass up when your stack size is 1300 and you are not right on the edge of the bubble. I’d be interested to see what Eastbay’s program says the right choice is. Doesn’t his program attempt to actually quantify this “judgement” tradeoff we are making between chip EV and minimizing risk?

The only thing I strongly disagree with what has been said so far is if people who are saying it is an easy fold or an easy call, because it seems like a pretty borderline situation to me.

[SammyKid11]

Not for me, thanks. Fold.

[wuwei]

Now, I'll be the first to admit that I should be asleep in bed rather than sitting in my chair playing with Eastbay's tool, but assuming I plugged things in correctly calling is +1.9% $EV against any two. Do you really think I can do better than that in the next few hands with my ~5BB stack?

I suppose we can also debate how important an accurate read is here, but dammit man, I can see into my opponents' souls.

[yabastid]

I am folding this very quickly.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Now, I'll be the first to admit that I should be asleep in bed rather than sitting in my chair playing with Eastbay's tool, but assuming I plugged things in correctly calling is +1.9% $EV against any two. Do you really think I can do better than that in the next few hands with my ~5BB stack?

I suppose we can also debate how important an accurate read is here, but dammit man, I can see into my opponents' souls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's look at your style of play, and compare it to another similar example. If you had A8s, and you assumed villain was on a loose push range (22+,A2+,any two broadway) this is also exactly a 1.9% +$EV to call. Do you call here?

[curtains]

Read is irrelevant here, you should call.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Bryan, very very easy fold. Don't think about it, move on. Don't deliberate, move on. Don't let all these punks convince that your read is good so call, because it doesn't matter.

In fact, the above comment reminds me a ton of the fishy players thought process. "I think you're bluffing, so I call." And obviously with no regard to their cards.

Anyway, fold. Feel good about it.

Scuba

95% its a coinflip
5% you're completely dominated

[/ QUOTE ]

Scuba??? You are risking 650 chips to win 1150, and yet you want to fold because you think that 5% of the time you will be dominated. This is really terrible math.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Scuba??? You are risking 650 chips to win 1150, and yet you want to fold because you think that 5% of the time you will be dominated. This is really terrible math.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have said this many times before, and it has been said many times before. At a higher level, or a competent table, I might make this kind of call. But these monkeys make so many mistakes on the $33s, that I believe these kinds of decisions can be avoided for more profitable ones.

[Crispy86]

[ QUOTE ]
Now, I'll be the first to admit that I should be asleep in bed rather than sitting in my chair playing with Eastbay's tool, but assuming I plugged things in correctly calling is +1.9% $EV against any two. Do you really think I can do better than that in the next few hands with my ~5BB stack?

I suppose we can also debate how important an accurate read is here, but dammit man, I can see into my opponents' souls.

[/ QUOTE ]

22 is a problematic hand. To say the least. If your opponent has so much as suited cards, you are an immediate underdog. Against a measly 8s4s you are a 47.5%-52.5% underdog for example, so.... I wouldn't bet with it.

Albert

[utmt40]

This is an easy call. 22 never loses especially if thats a 2+2er.

[therock]

You are getting 1.76:1 odds on a little less than a coinflip. I think people are over discounting all of the dead chips in the pot. This is a really easy call for me.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

I have said this many times before, and it has been said many times before. At a higher level, or a competent table, I might make this kind of call. But these monkeys make so many mistakes on the $33s, that I believe these kinds of decisions can be avoided for more profitable ones.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero's M is not even 4. And the blinds will go up soon. This is an easy call.