How important is Probabillity? (In Poker)

[The Nutz85]

I just got a book Holdem Odds book, and i stink at math.
The book is cool but really what situations am i going to need to know all this stuff for.
Is it better to breifly go over the math and memorize the reference numbers or actually learn to do all the math.

And can someone give me an example of probabillity coming into play preflop?

Basically im asking should i just memorize the odds outs and proballities or really get in deph and learn the ins and outs of why those odds, outs and probabillities are there?

[LetYouDown]

If you're playing limit, it's typically a lot more important than in NL, not to say that it's unimportant in NL. From your avatar, I'm guessing you're playing NL.

[The Nutz85]

Can you give example of probabillity in use in a NL holdem game?

[ActionMatt]

it is important in nl to know your chances of making your hand on the turn or the river so that you can make the correct call when taking the pot odds into consideration

[The Nutz85]

That stuff i have down but why need to know what the odds of getting pocket aces are or the odds of a three card sequence like 789 on the flop?

[DoctorWard]

Pre-Flop
Hand Prob. making hand Pot odds
Pair (flopping a set or quads) 12.12% 1 in 7.25
Suited Connector (flopping a straight, flush or straight flush) 1.83% 1 in 53.6
A-x suited (flopping the nut flush) 0.84% 1 in 118
A-x suited (flopping 4-to-a-flush) 10.94% 1 in 8.14


Post-Flop (2 cards to come)
Hand Prob. making hand Pot odds
4 -to-a-flush 34.97% 1 in 1.86
3 -to-a-flush 4.16% 1 in 23.0
4 to an open-end straight 31.45% 1 in 2.18
4 to a gut-shot straight 16.47% 1 in 5.07



Post-Turn (1 card to come)
Hand Prob. making hand Pot odds
4 -to-a-flush 19.57% 1 in 4.11
4 to an open-end straight 17.39% 1 in 4.75
4 to a gut-shot straight 8.70% 1 in 10.5


Outs & Pot Odds
Outs Turn (2 cards to come) River (1 card to come)
1 4.26% 1 in 22.5 2.17% 1 in 45.0
2 8.42% 1 in 10.9 4.35% 1 in 22.0
3 12.49% 1 in 7.01 6.52% 1 in 14.3
4 16.47% 1 in 5.07 8.70% 1 in 10.5
5 20.35% 1 in 3.91 10.87% 1 in 8.20
6 24.14% 1 in 3.14 13.04% 1 in 6.67
7 27.84% 1 in 2.59 15.22% 1 in 5.57
8 31.45% 1 in 2.18 17.39% 1 in 4.75
9 34.97% 1 in 1.86 19.57% 1 in 4.11
10 38.39% 1 in 1.60 21.74% 1 in 3.60
11 41.72% 1 in 1.40 23.91% 1 in 3.18
12 44.96% 1 in 1.22 26.09% 1 in 2.83
13 48.10% 1 in 1.08 28.26% 1 in 2.54
14 51.16% 1 in 0.95 30.43% 1 in 2.29
15 54.12% 1 in 0.85 32.61% 1 in 2.07
16 56.98% 1 in 0.75 34.78% 1 in 1.88
17 59.76% 1 in 0.67 36.96% 1 in 1.71
18 62.44% 1 in 0.60 39.13% 1 in 1.56
19 65.03% 1 in 0.54 41.30% 1 in 1.42
20 67.53% 1 in 0.48 43.48% 1 in 1.30
21 69.94% 1 in 0.43 45.65% 1 in 1.19
22 72.25% 1 in 0.38 47.83% 1 in 1.09
23 74.47% 1 in 0.34 50.00% 1 in 1.00

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
That stuff i have down but why need to know what the odds of getting pocket aces are or the odds of a three card sequence like 789 on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not too important, but sometimes you're able to glean something useful from seemingly trivial facts.

[bosulli]

I dont have odds memorized, but I have learned the math behind them. When reading an article on how to play a particular hand, I can understand the aurthors logic and decide for myself if I want to blend his strategy into my overall strategy.

Typically I play a Turbo Texas Holdem and when an interesting situation pops up, I study the odds make and make a decision, and when that situation arises in a live game I know how to play it with out seeming to be contemplating a close call.

In short having a understanding of odds, I have a valid jsutification for the style of game I play.

[R_Ellender]

You need to know the odds of drawing to different hands in order to decide whether or not a call will be profitable in NL play. If you consistently make calls with poor pot odds, you will lose money in the long run.

You don't need to know everything about the odds, but it is important to have a general idea of them. For instance, you will make one pair with one of your hole cards about 28-29% of the time on the flop. Knowing things like that will keep your expectation realistic... you shouldn't get upset over not pairing for an hour because the odds are actually against it.