QQ, lots of action

[TheHip41]

Party 2/4

Hero has Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif in MP

2 folds

MP1 raise, MP2 3-bets, I cap, all fold, 2 calls.


Flop (3 players) 13SB

J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif


MP1 bets, MP2 raise, Hero...??

What my plan for the rest of this hand?

Both players seem reasonable.

[ArturiusX]

I 3-bet and go from there.

[TomBrooks]

If you knew your opponents to be good players you could fold.

Figure the flop bettor has at least a pair of Jacks. He will not bet out without AJ or an overpair because he knows there are overpairs out there based on the preflop action. The flop raiser, knowing this, raises anyway, telling you that he has a hand that at least beats JJ. The least he can have is therefore QQ for a chop, but he could have AA, KK JJ too. Most likely your behind, so fold. You will save a bunch of money if these guys get in a raising war.

Or else, MP1 might have bet out with overcards like AK or AQ to see where he was at. MP2 would have to have at least AJ to raise. You can 3bet here and perhaps take down the pot right here, because AK might not want to call 2 back to him and AJ will know he's up against an overpair. If the hand gets capped, your're either up against QQ for a chop or KK or AA or JJ. There is only 1 combination of QQ for a chop, there are 15 combinations of AA, KK, or JJ. Your losing 15 out of 16 times here.

[ncboiler]

3 bet. A reasonable player at small stakes doesn't mean good.

[27offsooot]

u really need some reads, i could see r/c/f here. If this is a full table and the two MPers seem reasonable or unkown 2/4ers (more likely passive), i lean towards folding here w/o reads.

I think youre up against an overpair to the board, KK, AA, or mabye overcards AK or AQ, raising is not going to drive MP2 out but may get rid of MP1 so i would raise here

[Brunger]

I may be an idiot but it sure looks like a fold to me. I mean two reasonable players have bet and raised at every oppurtunity and one reasonable hand we had beat just got there.

Resonable at a 2/4 game means they dont play rags I think it's a resonable assumption to believe your ahead. They KJ or middle pair with an ace seem more likely then KK AA or JJ considering the flop wasn't capped. 3-betting seems like the right play.

[LesWormMurphy]

I HARDLY see how folding an overpair 3-ways in a 15SB pot is the right play here. If these players are good, a raise might be used to chase off anybody who's drawing and to leave it heads-up.

I would raise. First off, if MP1 has a piece, and sees your reraise, that might persuade him to let go of his top pair, so your left heads-up. Assuming he DOES call, your raise pushes the pot from 15SB into atleast 18SB if not more. So your getting paid 9-to-1 on the flop, and you've got an overpair against 3 people.

I would REALLY think it would be foolish to fold.

Additionaly I think calling is wrong too because if you somehow just KNOW your behind, you need the pot to lay at 22-to-1 to hope a queen falls on the turn or river, and 3-ways, I doubt the pot will reach that.

So a raise might either win the pot right there, persuade one to fold, or if neither of those two options work... you've got the overpair!

This seems like an obvious 3-bet to me. Pot's big, you have overpair, they could have 88, 99, TT, AJ, AQ, AK, QQ, or some other stuff you beat and are way ahead of.

[TomBrooks]

The opinions on this hand seem about evenly split, but split pretty widely.

I'm pretty sure a fold here is +EV.

Are there any math guys out there who know how to estimate what percentage of the time would you have to be good here to make continuing in this hand +EV?

To me the problem here seems to be that you dont know anything about the players you are playing against.
Most small stakes players are passive and the 3 bet on the flop indicates a lot of strength and I think that folding is not out of the question you have no money in the pot and at best you are a small favorite against an AK type hand at worst you are a 4-1 dog.
Now if you are playing against a maniac caping would be correct and you should 3bet the flop and see what happens. A three bet here can give you information about their hands. If its capped and called i would see the next card and be ready to throw my hand away. You can call down for one bet but if it is bet and raised again you have to dump your hand. You are going to pay way to much in # of BB to justify calling.

[twang]

I can't see how a fold could be correct here, unless you are sure that these two are the mothers of all rocks. You are behind AA, KK and JJ, but there is nothing about the action that can confirm that fear.

Your read is that the foes are reasonable. I think a reasonable expaination of the action so far is that MP1 raises first in with a not-so-great hand, maybe a middle pair or some big card combo. MP2 3-betting PF could mean a wide range of less than monster hands too.

As for the flop action: MP1 makes the standard betting out move. MP2 raises to get heads up with MP1.

I think even if you 3-bet the flop it's still a guessing game so I would call the flop raise and hope for a call-call to showdown (folding if the actions continues).