What do you think of this push?

[samr]

Party $10+1, BB was an average $10+1er playing reasonably, a bit loose-passive.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t1065)
UTG (t2120)
MP (t2650)
Button (t830)
Hero (t1335)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
3 folds, Hero pushes allin.

I don't have SNGPT (yet!) so here's a manual ICM calc:
$EV of folding = 0.1745
$EV of pushing and losing = 0.0441
$EV of pushing and winning = 0.2907
$EV of pushing and getting a fold = 0.1995

Assuming I have 35% equity against BB's range and opponnent calls with top 30% of hands (reasonable estimates?),

$EV of pushing: .70*.1995 + .30*(.35*.2907 + .65*.0441) = 0.178773

$EV fold: 0.1745
$EV push: 0.1788

$EV diff: 0.0043 = +0.4%

Marginal push? Should I fold it since I don't need the chips that bad? Then again, a medium suited one-gapper has reasonable equity against the BB's range.

[samr]

bump?

[TredWel]

You said it yourself. It's a close push. BB has to be calling with a little more than the top 40% to make this -EV.
If BB was loose and wild, I'd fold. If BB was tight, I'd push.