Blind Steal Attempt and Bottom Pair

[mojobluesman]

No Reads.

I had bottom pair, a backdoor nut STR8 and Flush, and an overcard. The 8s were probably worth a full 2 outs. I counted the A as worth 1 1/2, and the backdoors were worth 2+. That made it a marginal fold.

Should I have counted the A as more than 1 1/2?

Ultimate Bet 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero folds, Button calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Button checks.

River: (4.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 4.25 BB

[tiltaholic]

i don't think this is that close...i think you discount your aces too much. we have the ace of clubs, and you think someone has AK or AQ or KK or QQ or JT? i'd say you have about seven outs. when i first looked at this hand i thought "raise." i think raising is better than calling, but i could see a call.

[mojobluesman]

I agree that I underestimated the A and should have played the hand further, but I can't see raising. I had 2 opponents and there were 2 overcards in the play zone. One of those opponents lead out into that board. I had to think it was much better than 50/50 I was behind at that point.

I guess the question is whether the A was a full 3 outs or what?

That was the key to my underestimated out count.

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that I underestimated the A and should have played the hand further, but I can't see raising. I had 2 opponents and there were 2 overcards in the play zone. One of those opponents lead out into that board. I had to think it was much better than 50/50 I was behind at that point.

I guess the question is whether the A was a full 3 outs or what?

That was the key to my underestimated out count.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, i'll say this is a current weakness in my game...but:

yes we are likely behind. but raising will likely fold button (good) and might get us a cheap turn/river (ie free).

[silkyslim]

I raise on the flop.

[mojobluesman]

A raise would seem clearer to me if the pot was larger.

[@bsolute_luck]

no reads, i would have called and folded the turn UI.

[kapw7]

The OP didn't provide any reads. Just to remind him that reads are essential for him and for the ppl who reply.

Generally I like the raise as well. You can make a weak-tight with a pair of queens to fold. Would BB with a strong hand or even toppair try to check-raise? Or is he possibly donkbetting with a draw?
Hard to say with no reads. Raising and calling are close. Folding seems too pessimistic but not terrible. I guess it's the right decision if you multitable which I suppose OP was doing since he didn't have any reads.

[wpzone]

Raise flop to fold button and maybe get a free card. If he leads again on turn and we dont improve, then I fold.

[kapw7]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise flop to fold button and maybe get a free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't want to take a free card here. You need to bet again if checked and then get a free showdown. Fold to a river bet if it's a club.

[wpzone]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't want to take a free card here. You need to bet again if checked and then get a free showdown. Fold to a river bet if it's a club.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, I like that, we may be good here. what if he calls the raise (or 3 bets) and leads the turn, are you dumping?

[kapw7]

[ QUOTE ]

Good point, I like that, we may be good here. what if he calls the raise (or 3 bets) and leads the turn, are you dumping?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would (fold). And I'm a calling station HU. I don't know what other ppl think with more 1/2 full ring experience.

[Duerig]

I probably raise the flop and bet the turn. I want this to be HU and I want to get to showdown.

[mojobluesman]

Raising the flop seems to be a common suggestion. I still don't quite get it. Conceptually I understand the idea of raising to get the pot heads up. However, I think with 2 overcards in the playing zone on the flop and someone leading into that, the chances of me being ahead have to be less than 50-50. I thought the concept of raising even when you think you might be behind in order to protect your hand is applicable "only" when the pot is large.

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise flop to fold button and maybe get a free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't want to take a free card here. You need to bet again if checked and then get a free showdown. Fold to a river bet if it's a club.

[/ QUOTE ]

no man. this is wrong.
there is no way we are ahead on the turn, and there is no way he is folding to our turn bet. it is safe to say that unknowns do not bet less than top pair, or even middle pair, into a preflop raiser here. it would be a different story if we had a read on him. i highly doubt he is betting a draw on the flop. betting a non club turn is excessive. i can see a semi-bluff if we had a 4-flush going into the river...

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising the flop seems to be a common suggestion. I still don't quite get it. Conceptually I understand the idea of raising to get the pot heads up. However, I think with 2 overcards in the playing zone on the flop and someone leading into that, the chances of me being ahead have to be less than 50-50. I thought the concept of raising even when you think you might be behind in order to protect your hand is applicable "only" when the pot is large.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, so in large pots we all know we want to play aggressively in order to win them.

now is this a large pot? no, it's not huge, but it's still 7.5 SB. i'd like that 7.5 SB in my stack, and i do have a hand, while likely currently behind, that does have outs to figure to be the best hand.

say we've determined that we have 7 outs. and we are fairly sure the third player will fold if we raise. if we raise, we will (barring some tricky play from SB or a monster) get to see the river for free if we choose. so we have 2 shots at hitting 5 outs (to 2 pair or trips - forgetting about the BD draws).

with 2 chance at 5 outs, we'll hit 20.4% of the time, or 3.9:1. call it 4:1. assuming SB calls our raise, we are getting 8.5 SB : 2 SB. which is on the money oddwise. and that doesn't include the times we'll hit a backdoor. or the times we hit on the turn and get to win an extra BB.