Help! 99 flops a set but can't take the heat

[Bodhi]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

The BB just sat down, and the CO is obviously new too. I wish I had more to say for reads. If I played this like crap then go ahead and rip into me.

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (10 SB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (13 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (29 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 41 BB

[thejameser]

3-bet preflop.

[Harv72b]

Nice hand. When the river rolls around and BB &amp; the CO poster are both still raising, I also give enough credit for TT/J8/86 to slow down, but not enough to fold. It does kinda suck that both of them got to the flop at a discount, which makes the straight hands very possible.

[Bodhi]

Yeah, I thought about 3-betting preflop, though I didn't think it would accomplish much. In fact, I was about to 3 bet, but when the CO called I figured everyone was going along for the ride.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
3-bet preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do not like this play. Even if you convince BB &amp; UTG to fold, UTG+1 obviously won't and CO is highly unlikely to fold for 1 more bet after putting two in already (well, 1 + posting). So the end result is that Hero winds up playing at least 2 opponents from OOP with 99.

I much prefer waiting for a favorable flop in this situation, before putting in extra bets.

[krimson]

I can't see anything I would have done differently. I start getting suspicious of being beat when CO raises on the turn, but with a set of 9's there is just no easy way to get out of this hand.

[TheHammer24]

I don't like 3-Betting 99 OOP in a 2/4 hand with a lot of limpers.

This hand is seriously crazy. I have PF Raiser on something like AA KK, but I the others I don't know. I like leading out on the turn to protect your hand, but after the fact I doubt anyone was folding.

I'm taking from your tone you lost this hand.

[imported_leader]

The only point you can even think about folding is when it comes back 2 the second time on the river, but the pot is just to big by then. You just have to have to hope that BB has 77 and CO has a turned set or a horribly over played two pair.

Seems like either BB or CO flopped a straight and the other flopped a set or two pair. Against TT, you have only two outs. Against any other hand you have 7 outs on the flop and 10 outs on the turn. You are getting odds to call everywhere except on the river. I don't think it's absolutely terrible to check/fold the river when you don't improve. It's what I would want to do, but I don't know if I'd have the power.

[Bodhi]

Yeah, folding the river when I didn't improve is not something I'm capable of, yet. If I had a good read on these two, that both were passive, then I could fold the river.

[callmedonnie]

Wow. I think CO has pocket three's or an over pair played miserably. Unless he really does have the straight.

That river action is absolutely terrible. Barring reads I think you may have best hand, maybe second best. A straight or pocket tens out there? Maybe, but there is probably an idiot with A10. At least its a possibility.

I think if there was a mistake anywhere it was on river, when you were sandwiched and tried to call when it looked like a raise was inevitable.

I think it's fine. This pot is huge, and I think you win your share of the time against two unknowns on Party 2/4.

[avisco01]

If someone has TT you're just going to have to lose a lot of chips, thats all there is to it. Given the action, it is possible that someone turned the straight with a junky J8s or something. I doubt I'd fold in this spot ever as a set of 9's usually will be the best hand. Given the action on the turn I would think I'd need the board to pair to win though because the coordinated flop and action is troubling. I'm guessing you didn't win the hand which is unfortunate if thats true, but better luck next time you flop a set, they usually are very profitable as we all know.

[krimson]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, folding the river when I didn't improve is not something I'm capable of, yet. If I had a good read on these two, that both were passive, then I could fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

But if you fold the river and someone flips over 33 for the win, then you have stab your eyes out which would be -ev.

[Emoney]

i'm surprised it took til this post for someone to mention that the BB had a straight.

[elindauer]

Hi Bodhi,

You played it reasonably, but I think you could have saved as much as 4BB this hand. The BB flop action indicates a monster hand. When you combine this with the fact that another player has shown huge strength and you hold a normally powerful but far-from-the-nuts type hand, you should slow down on the turn, hoping to see the river for 3BB.

This wouldn't have saved you anything, as it would surely have been 2 more cold back to you and you would have to call hoping to fill. Once you fail to improve though and it's 2 cold back to you again on the river, with every indication it's going to be 3 or 4 total to see a showdown, I think you are correct to fold.

Good luck.
Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand is seriously crazy. I have PF Raiser on something like AA KK, but I the others I don't know.

[/ QUOTE ]

CO probably has TT. If he's very aggressive pre and postflop could have 77. If he's very loose he must have J8s, as players bad enough to play J8 and 64 don't put in this many bets with anything but the nuts.

BB has the nuts, MAYBE, possible 64 if he's really aggressive. As the only player to get into this pot for 1SB, his hand range is wider than anyone else's.

Good luck.
Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
If someone has TT you're just going to have to lose a lot of chips, thats all there is to it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a cop out. We have been given many many clues that 99 is no good. Avoiding the 4 BB loss on the river is quite plausible.

[ QUOTE ]
Given the action, it is possible that someone turned the straight with a junky J8s or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

That str8 was present on the flop, hence all the action.

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt I'd fold in this spot ever as a set of 9's usually will be the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you call the river, you are making a crying call. A set will be good nowhere close to "usually". Oddly, you basically say exactly this in the rest of the post.

Good luck.
Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow. I think CO has pocket three's or an over pair played miserably.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are really trying hard to put him on a hand we can beat, aren't you? I'd say these hands are unlikely at best.

[ QUOTE ]
That river action is absolutely terrible. Barring reads I think you may have best hand, maybe second best. A straight or pocket tens out there? Maybe, but there is probably an idiot with A10. At least its a possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really believe the reads you're giving? Let's find out. I'll bet $5 CO beats 99, and give you 2:1. I'll give you even money that BOTH players can beat 99 on the same bet. Interested?

[ QUOTE ]
I think if there was a mistake anywhere it was on river, when you were sandwiched and tried to call when it looked like a raise was inevitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo.

Good luck.
Eric

[avisco01]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If someone has TT you're just going to have to lose a lot of chips, thats all there is to it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a cop out. We have been given many many clues that 99 is no good. Avoiding the 4 BB loss on the river is quite plausible.[ QUOTE ]


Once Hero didn't improve to a full house or better, I think its reasonable to fold on the river even though the pot is gigantic. I don't think that its a cop out to say that if you flop 2nd set against top set you're bound to lose a lot of chips though. Given the presence of the straight though, its a little easier to get away from it if the action reaches ridiculous proportions, which happened in this case. Its just tough to automatically put someone on the nuts knowing that poor players will usually misplay or even overplay weaker hands even in multiway pots.

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt I'd fold in this spot ever as a set of 9's usually will be the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you call the river, you are making a crying call. A set will be good nowhere close to "usually". Oddly, you basically say exactly this in the rest of the post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously it would be a crying call. Against typical opponents its possible that someone overplayed bottom set or top two pair, which is why I said a set of 9's, given the board is 10 high, will usually be good, unless you run into the top set or straight of course. Its easy to tell someone that they should have folded, but speaking for myself, I know it would be very difficult to get away from this hand if I were Hero.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
BB has the nuts, MAYBE, possible 64 if he's really aggressive. As the only player to get into this pot for 1SB, his hand range is wider than anyone else's.


[/ QUOTE ]
CO posted so he got in cheap too. I'd be surprised if both players didn't have straights. I'm not sure I could stand the emotional turmoil if I was wrong, but I can't believe hero is good anywhere near the 1 in 10 needed to call the inevitable 4 bets on the river.

[elindauer]

It can't be a "crying call", and "usually good". You have to pick one. Also, while it's remotely possible that "someone has overplayed bottom set", it's highly improbably that TWO players have. Therefore, you should abandon any suggestion that 99 is usually good, and go with your claim that it's a crying call.

-eric

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm surprised it took til this post for someone to mention that the BB had a straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too. Crying call? My ass. Crying fold. Crying that a flopped set didn't fill up on the river. Check-fold the river all the time here. This was a totally wasted 4BBs.

I have to agree.

Most likely overcards will flop and you leave yourself in a tough spot OOP. If you bet out, he might semi-bluff with overcards. If you check-raise or 3 bet, you'll most likely freeze up JJ and maybe QQ and you're betting the whole way with the worst hand.

I think it's a mistake to assume a pre-flop raiser always has overcards, and thus overvalue a mid pocket pair on a raggy board. I make a pretty penny when 77 calls me down on rags, "hoping" I have AK.

It's funny, you'll raise their probe bet and their read remains the same. Only now, I'm semi-bluffing with overcards.

I like calling. I think it gives you more to work with post-flop. Say if the board comes rags and you decide to check-raise, now JJ or QQ will read you for a top-pair and 3 bet you and you can safely fold either to 3 bet or on the turn. Or you can lead, call a raise and donk bet the turn to see if he's for real (the donk bet might freeze him, though).

As for the hand, that is a tough, tough spot. I don't think it's good, but I'd call. You would hate for someone to be overplaying their hand, and if you folded the winner, it'd probably have a psychological effect on you for the rest of the session.

[Bodhi]

[ QUOTE ]
This was a totally wasted 4BBs.

[/ QUOTE ]

With the river action on both sides, it's definitely worth a thought.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]

With the river action on both sides, it's definitely worth a thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I thought about it and decided you have to check-fold the river when you don't fill up. It was not a difficult decision.

[elindauer]

.

[avisco01]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Bodhi,

You played it reasonably, but I think you could have saved as much as 4BB this hand. The BB flop action indicates a monster hand. When you combine this with the fact that another player has shown huge strength and you hold a normally powerful but far-from-the-nuts type hand, you should slow down on the turn, hoping to see the river for 3BB.

This wouldn't have saved you anything, as it would surely have been 2 more cold back to you and you would have to call hoping to fill. Once you fail to improve though and it's 2 cold back to you again on the river, with every indication it's going to be 3 or 4 total to see a showdown, I think you are correct to fold.

Good luck.
Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

I echoed these thoughts in one of my posts. One thing I didn't make clear is that I sometimes know that I'm beat but don't have the discipline to fold on the river for one bet, but most of the time if its two or more coming back to me I can release the expensive second or third best hand.

[Bodhi]

The BB and CO both had J8o.