Test your odds appraisal skills!

[Transference]

See if you can make your decision in 20 seconds.

Button is a donk, maybe a maniac after only a few hands.
BB has been very fishy and passive, also only a few hands.
MP has tagish stats, I dont have any notes on him.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP calls, Button calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero...


I won't post what I came up with (yet), consider it a good math review.

[Badgerpoo]

Call, immediate pot odds are very slightly against you, but implied odds swing it into your favour.

[spydog]

Easy call. BB has a 50% of calling 2 more and MP will undoubetedly call 1 more so you are getting the necessary odds on your call (16:3 on average) + the implied odds when you hit your flush.

[Mig]

It's very likely that someone already have a set or a baby flush.
Your turn call is 17:3 or 5.7:1 considering everyone calls.
If there is already a baby flush out there :
46:6 = 7.5
If there is a set
46:7 = 6.5

With implied odds this is a +ev calls I think, you will invest 4 BB to win around 20 BB. 5:1 Am I wrong ?

[PokerBob]

I call.....now i'll see if i'm right......i doubt i am as IMO we really only have 7 outs here and 2 of them are likely gone to another frush......i play bad

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call. BB has a 50% of calling 2 more and MP will undoubetedly call 1 more so you are getting the necessary odds on your call (16:3 on average) + the implied odds when you hit your flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

When a /images/graemlins/spade.gif spade hits, everyone is gonna freeze up. Even if they all call the river, we make 19:4 on our turn and river calls. IMO we only have 7 good outs, which is more like 6:1. I think it's actually -EV. And what happens when a spade hits but the board pairs? Ugh.

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy call. BB has a 50% of calling 2 more and MP will undoubetedly call 1 more so you are getting the necessary odds on your call (16:3 on average) + the implied odds when you hit your flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

When a /images/graemlins/spade.gif spade hits, everyone is gonna freeze up. Even if they all call the river, we make 19:4 on our turn and river calls. IMO we only have 7 good outs, which is more like 6:1. I think it's actually -EV. And what happens when a spade hits but the board pairs? Ugh.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah....folding might be best. But, what about those times when you hit the nuts on the river and still get 2 or 3 BBs from 2 opponents (or more) because they thought their King high flush was good and they other dude(s) were holding sets or worse flushes?

[Mig]

There is only the 7spades that will do that so you only have to discount that spades if you think someone has a set and you have to discount 2 more if someone already has a baby flush. I think discounting a mean of 1.5 to 2 outs is fine here.. You probably have 7 outs here ...

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy call. BB has a 50% of calling 2 more and MP will undoubetedly call 1 more so you are getting the necessary odds on your call (16:3 on average) + the implied odds when you hit your flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

When a /images/graemlins/spade.gif spade hits, everyone is gonna freeze up. Even if they all call the river, we make 19:4 on our turn and river calls. IMO we only have 7 good outs, which is more like 6:1. I think it's actually -EV. And what happens when a spade hits but the board pairs? Ugh.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah....folding might be best. But, what about those times when you hit the nuts on the river and still get 2 or 3 BBs from 2 opponents (or more) because they thought their King high flush was good and they other dude(s) were holding sets or worse flushes?

[/ QUOTE ]

the occasional multiple bet river payout will happen but IMO it will be really really rare. When you call 3 cold back to you on the turn, you may as well turn over your A /images/graemlins/spade.gif, cuz even Stevie Wonder could figure out that's what you were holding.

[Mig]

There is 13 spades in the deck. We know 4 of them. so there is still 9 spades in the deck if somone has a baby flush and we discount the 7 we still have 7 outs which might be 8 if the baby flush guy has the 7s... We at least have 7 outs...

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
There is 13 spades in the deck. We know 4 of them. so there is still 9 spades in the deck if somone has a baby flush and we discount the 7 we still have 7 outs which might be 8 if the baby flush guy has the 7s... We at least have 7 outs...

[/ QUOTE ]

OK. That means with 46 cards left, there are 7 we like. 39 times we lose 3 bets for -117. 7 times we win a total of 19, assuming that we get a call from each player on the river when we get there, +133. OK, I guess it is slightly +EV, but I still think the 4th spade on the river is gonna kill our action. What about when the spade is the 7?

[Mig]

Well yeah the action will be closed but they will call 1 more bet with 2 pair ++ they won't be able to fold in such a huge pot after putting 4 bet on the turn... The 7 is a tricky card... not sure I would do a crying call here with the turn action ...

[witeknite]

Small nit to pick. If we are assuming 2 spades missing to a baby flush, there are 44 cards unseen. This doesn't change anything enough to matter though.

WiteKnite

[meow_meow]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There is 13 spades in the deck. We know 4 of them. so there is still 9 spades in the deck if somone has a baby flush and we discount the 7 we still have 7 outs which might be 8 if the baby flush guy has the 7s... We at least have 7 outs...

[/ QUOTE ]

OK. That means with 46 cards left, there are 7 we like. 39 times we lose 3 bets for -117. 7 times we win a total of 19, assuming that we get a call from each player on the river when we get there, +133. OK, I guess it is slightly +EV, but I still think the 4th spade on the river is gonna kill our action. What about when the spade is the 7?

[/ QUOTE ]

Right.
I think the action here suggests at most 6 clean outs, maybe fewer.
Someone already has a flush - so 7 outs tops. Someone else has a set probably, so down to 6 unless flushy holds 7s. Maybe someone else has Ks (like KxKs for example), and there may be more spades out - something like Tx9s for a straight...

I think if you are counting on any more than 6 outs you are just looking to call, and consider the action dies when if we hit, and the extra bet(s) we might lose if 7s hits....

Fold.

[sthief09]

17-3 with 7 outs (since you're almost definitely gainst a set and/or flush) and some small amount of implied odds. seems like a borderline but good call

[Mig]

well we can assume that everyone has 2 spades but would it be representative of the reality ? Someone can easily has a set (no spades) + the baby flush + a str8 ? I think a mean of 6 outs would be correct to assume here... IT's a little +ev overall I think

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
which might be 8 if the baby flush guy has the 7s

[/ QUOTE ]


huh? no, 7 outs vs set or flush

[Mig]

Yeah sorry I made a little mistake /images/graemlins/smile.gif. If someone has the baby flush you have at most 7 outs. Which is still make it a slight +ev call.

[Cased Heel]

I think it's OK to call here. If you hit anything but a spade on the river, check/fold.

The odds aren't there right now but if spade falls, you'll probably get capped again.

[meow_meow]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's OK to call here. If you hit anything but a spade on the river, check/fold.

The odds aren't there right now but if spade falls, you'll probably get capped again.

[/ QUOTE ]

What? on a non-paired board with 4 spades, who is going to raise/3-bet without As?

[Alobar]

c/r the flop

[etizzle]

he means OP will get shot

[dave44]

I'd be interested in hearing your reasons behind a check-raise. Pot's small so you don't mind gutshots or overcards calling and you would love Ax's to call since they have at most 3 outs along with smaller PP's which may think they're ahead but are drawing to 2 outs.

You'd like to knock out a T8 or T9, but it seems to me a lot of things would have to go right to face them with 2 cold.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be interested in hearing your reasons behind a check-raise. Pot's small so you don't mind gutshots or overcards calling and you would love Ax's to call since they have at most 3 outs along with smaller PP's which may think they're ahead but are drawing to 2 outs.

You'd like to knock out a T8 or T9, but it seems to me a lot of things would have to go right to face them with 2 cold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm guessing that you want any overs to get lost. TPTK on that board is likely no good the instant the turn hits. Check and hope button auto bets so you can c/r and blow away hands like KT.

[dave44]

KT isn't getting great odds to call anyway so you're taking a risk in hoping a bet comes from LP to protect a very small pot. If the pot was bigger, I would agree with you.

[Cased Heel]

I don't know...I s.uck at limit play.

wtf is da answer? Please don't say it depends....lol What was the disposition of the hand?

[JKDStudent]

I call. Someone has a flush, someone has a straight. You're getting 3:14, or 1:4.3. You're about 1:3.5 to make your flush. Even if you discount slightly for the straight flush potential, you have immediate odds to call. Plus, if you hit, you're making at least an extra 3BB on the river, probably more.

*EDIT* Well, I'm an idiot, because assuming there's a flush out there already, that means there are spades accounted for that aren't outs. Also, my math sucked. So we'll try this again.

Pot is offering 3:14, or 1:4.6. 3 spades out there, one in hand, 2 in someone else's hand, that leaves us at best seven outs, meaning we need 1:5.2. We DON'T have immediate odds. I think we get an extra 3BB on the river if we make our hand, which gives us odds of 3:17, or 1:5.6 That's BARELY enough. We could actually have fewer outs, though. As remote as it is, there's a straight flush possibility, and the spade pairing the board...

This is a really slim spot to be in. Looks like it should be a fold. Of course, in my 20 second time limit, I would have called.

[Transference]

Apparntly at least one person is demanding the rest of the hand. I don't think it matters but hero decided it was to close to call and took the low variance route.

Turn: (4 BB) 8 (4 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, MP 3-bets, Button caps, Hero folds, BB calls, MP calls.

River: (17 BB) A (3 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 17 BB

Result:
BB has 4h 5c (straight, eight high).
MP has 9d Th (straight, ten high).
Button has 8d 4d (one pair, eights).
Outcome: MP wins 17 BB.

It is interesting because it highlights the fact that the best scenario for me immediate outs wise is the worst implied odds wise.

I think I collect 1 to 3 bets behind me on the turn, 2 on average giving me 16:3 or 5.3:1.

I decided on 7 outs. At least one is usually holding a flush leaving me with 7, sometimes the 7 of spades will be a bad card sometimes theres a small flush and somone holding a decent spade.

7 outs demands 5.6:1.
Immediate odds are 5.3:1.

I think the fewest I pick up on the river is 2, I also think its by far the most likely scenario. I think the most is 7, given a lead, call, raise, 3bet fold call scenario. I think probably the best number to settle on is 3.

Effective odds on turn 19:3 then. (6.3:1)

It looks like barely a call from this, but given all the estimates I think its pretty dam close to neutral EV.


Now I'll go back and compare w/ everyone else and probably revise this.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think it matters but hero decided it was to close to call and took the low variance route.

[/ QUOTE ]
Folding is the play that reduces your variance. Calling either wins you a huge pot or makes your loss on the hand even bigger than it already is.

Not that I think you should allow variance to influence your decision.

[Transference]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding is the play that reduces your variance. Calling either wins you a huge pot or makes your loss on the hand even bigger than it already is.

Not that I think you should allow variance to influence your decision.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yup, hero folded. Also correct on point two, I was mostly being facetious.

[MarkL444]

[ QUOTE ]
Result:
BB has 4h 5c (straight, eight high).
MP has 9d Th (straight, ten high).
Button has 8d 4d (one pair, eights).
Outcome: MP wins 17 BB.


[/ QUOTE ]

man would you have been PISSED if a spade came. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[w_alloy]

Think button misclicked? That would be among the most awesomely bad plays i've ever seen if not.

Edit: also, I think this is close, but I think its a fold.

I think you should discount 2.5 outs... theres a good chance 1 has a flush, a small chance two do, and a moderate chance the 7s isnt an out (only spade that pairs the board)... So i think 2.5 is a good estimate.

I also think you will get only an average of 2 BB on the river.. your position sucks and a check raise here might check through or fold most out. Leading out you will get an average of less then 2 callers and will almost never get raised (after the spade hits), so i thin 2 BB is fair.

With that, 43.5/6.5 is 6.7, but you are only getting 18/3 (assuming an average of 2 more go in on turn) or 1 to 6 to call. So its close but not that close.

I would have probably called in 20 seconds though, it takes a sec to realize your implied odds probably arent that good and your outs are discounted.