Stars 5/10: time to fold aces?

[imported_PokerJello]

No reads on villain ($1548), he is new to the table and has played only one hand where his 88 won unimproved a decent pot against two drawing opponents. I have him covered.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP2 ($1350.80)
Hero ($1711)
Button ($1443.50)
SB ($1237.50)
BB :#A500AF(Villain)/ ($1548)
UTG ($995)
MP1 ($1238)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $30</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB :#A500AF(Villain)/ raises to $100</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $300</font>, BB :#A500AF(Villain)/ calls $200.

Flop: ($605) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Villain checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($605) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Villain bets $310</font>, Hero ?

I was considering smooth calling pre-flop, but thought the stacks were too deep. When he called my 3-bet pf, I think he can only have KK (most likely), QQ (unlikely) or AA (most unlikely). If I go with my read it's a clear fold or am I thinking too weak-tight? Comments?

[Ricardido]

He probably has Kings so yes.

[FatalError]

or AK or JJ... you needed to bet that flop and see what happened... maybe thats just me but i don't put my opponent on KK here...

[theben]

this certainly is the worst possible flop for you having the best hand. on one hand, since its not K X X or Q X X, its actually better in that it greatly simplifies your decision. id pass on this

[luckOverSkill]

Mmmmm....

I dunno man... he could easily have had AK or maybe
even AQ judging from his pre flop call (he may not be
as tight as you seem to be assuming - maybe he's loose
or even a maniac). It's too bad he just joined
the table.

If you don't want to give him the benefit of the doubt,
then raising the turn or even calling isn't necessarily
a bad thing. Post flop play... fun fun.

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[esbesb]

Why in the world didn't you bet the flop?

[amoeba]

what does betting the flop accomplish?

[mgsimpleton]

[ QUOTE ]
what does betting the flop accomplish?

[/ QUOTE ]

it avoids him drawing cheap to his JT, the exact hand i put him on!

no seriously yeah i fold this... if he has AK he's a donkey but fine, 90% he has KK or QQ.

[imported_PokerJello]

What hands would he call that I am beating? He put in 20% of his stack oop when it was 3-bet pf. If he is any decent he won't have AK or JJ.

[Prevaricator]

[ QUOTE ]
or AK or JJ... you needed to bet that flop and see what happened... maybe thats just me but i don't put my opponent on KK here...

[/ QUOTE ]

are you serious? Just ignore any hands that beat hero and make up a bunch of stuff about JJ betting the turn? Lets also consider what villain puts hero on too. Prob just aces. I doubt he tries to push hero off aces with that bet.

[Alex/Mugaaz]

Throw up in your mouth and muck.

[TheWorstPlayer]

If you're going to 3-bet preflop, make it 500. I don't see the point of 300. When I 3-bet, I want it to look like I want a fold.

[imported_PokerJello]

So true. If I put in 1/3 of his stack pf, flop play is automatic.

[creedofhubris]

You don't think villain has AK, AQ, KQ or JJ enough times to make your call worthwhile?

If this weren't CO vs BB (also known as steal and resteal) I would say you're right. Since it is, I would call this bet.

I feel like if he had kings, he would've come over the top again preflop. QQ is the only hand I'm worried about from him.

[Dr. StrangeloveX]

Villain has KK. But like a douche I would probably call and fold to big bet on river.

Fold, but if you don't, spike an ace.


This is if the villain is not an idiot, but you still don't know for sure. If villain is an idiot all bets are off and AK becomes possible.

[arod15]

You gotta bet that flop, you gained no information by checking and now you have a real tough decision on the turn.

[whitelime]

Since you don't have any notes on your opponent I don't think you can assume he's a donk and will call your reraise preflop with hands like JJ, TT, AQ, etc. I would be about 90% sure that he holds KK or QQ, with KK being the most likely holding. AA and AK are possible but very unlikely. As weak as it seems, I think you can just fold this. There's no rule that says you can't fold AA postflop w/o putting in a bet. Villain's hand is very well defined at this point.

[mgsimpleton]

[ QUOTE ]
You gotta bet that flop, you gained no information by checking and now you have a real tough decision on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

have you ever played above .50/1.00 before? just curious.

p.s. betting that flop would be terrible for all the reasons previously stated. you gain no information and it just builds the pot where if villain gets aggro at all you are probably losing.

[imported_PokerJello]

You are right that steal-resteal aspect makes the possible hand ranges little wider than usual, but my aces still need to be good about 40% of time. I feel like if I call his turn bet I must be prepared to play for the rest of his stack because I don't like the idea of calling 300 on turn and folding to his river push. Does this make any sense?

On the other hand I don't agree that he would put in almost 15% of his remaining stack OOP with AQ or KQ (besides KQ has me beaten). Furthermore I don't think you can rule out kings because he didn't move in preflop after my third bet. All the above assuming he is a decent 5/10 player.

[imported_PokerJello]

I ended up folding and he didn't show his hand. Judging from responses maybe my line wasn't completely lunatic after all. Thanks for all the comments.

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
what does betting the flop accomplish?

[/ QUOTE ]

Eliminates this tricky situation and gives you a good idea of where you stand. Checking behind has it's merits, too, but I think it's better suited for a safer board.

Isn't checking behind with Aces after being the aggressor preflop usually to trap? I mean, not just to trap, but for deception, keeping the pot small, etc. What I mean is, isn't this for when you think you're at least ahead? In this instance I'm under the impression that Hero is scared of KK or QQ. Villain can either have KK, QQ or be betting with AQ or AK, it's hard to tell with the way we played the flop.

I think I'd bet the flop and proceed with caution if called, fold if raised.


[ QUOTE ]
p.s. betting that flop would be terrible for all the reasons previously stated.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I bet that flop and am called or raised, I gain tons of information. I don't see how you gained any more information from checking behind than you do from betting.

I think if you're checking behind here with the intention of calling a bet from AQ, AK or Jacks, you shouldn't be folding. Make up your mind what you'll do on the turn when he bets. Checking behind and folding to a bet seems too weak, why not just bet flop if you're gonna fold on the turn.

[amoeba]

if villain is loose enough to call a preflop 3 bet with AK, he'll call a flop bet with these hands and probably weak lead turn with AK.

problem is this is same line he takes with QQ, KK.

flop bet will tell you nothing.

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
he'll call a flop bet with these handss

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. It was only $200 more preflop, Jacks might've realized that he's up against Aces or Kings and decided to call only for set value since the stacks were deep. I doubt Jacks check-calls a flop bet here, but might lead the turn trying to steal the pot. You might argue that having Jacks lead the turn is good, but we can't know he has Jacks, and neither did OP. Hero got scared and folded. If you lead for a 2/3 pot bet here, hell even 1/2, I doubt Jacks calls. You might also argue that having Jacks call is good, since he's so far behind. Well the pot is already $600 and I don't think we mind taking it down here before things get scary.


[ QUOTE ]
flop bet will tell you nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jacks doesn't check-call the flop. AK might check-call the flop. I think having Villain check-call the flop with AK is much better than having him bet 2/3 on the turn and leaving Hero scared shitless and in the dark about where he stands. It also puts Hero in the driver's seat. Bleh.