Big Blind 99 against button raise - Help?

[pottie]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP2 (t2235)
MP3 (t4235)
CO (t2190)
Button (t4575)
SB (t1025)
Hero (t2340)
UTG (t2665)
UTG+1 (t3025)
MP1 (t3990)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t300</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ??? No reads...

[billyjex]

it's a button raise, I push. he'll lay it down a large percentage of the time.

[TheJackal]

It's still early, I call and play the hand out. Pushing has some folding equity, but if he calls you, you are at best in a coinflip most of the time. With no reads, I assume strong until proven otherwise, pushing seems a bit too reckless.

[pottie]

And the final verdict is...

[betgo]

Easy push. The chance button has a bigger pair are small. Get him to fold or call with you the favorite plus pot odds. You also want to discourage people from stealing your blind.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
It's still early, I call and play the hand out. Pushing has some folding equity, but if he calls you, you are at best in a coinflip most of the time. With no reads, I assume strong until proven otherwise, pushing seems a bit too reckless.

[/ QUOTE ]

I call too, then bet the flop into him most of the time. Pushing really isn't neccessary here, especially so early in the tournament. You've got a big enough stack that you can walk away from this without worrying.

I think a lot of players will call you w/ two overcards, and I just don't see a reason to put it all on a coinflip given your stack, and that point in the tournament.

[DarrenX]

With your particular stack size I call and play poker. 1500 and below I push, and over 5000 I pop it to 900-1000.

[slickpoppa]

Pushing is excessive here with 23 bb. You will only get called by a better hand and will likely be a 4:1 dog. Either raise to 900 or smoothcall depending on how aggressive the button is.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a lot of players will call you w/ two overcards, and I just don't see a reason to put it all on a coinflip given your stack, and that point in the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not a coinflip. You are ahead like 57-43 against AKo-ATo. It's about even against JTs or QJs. You also have pot odds and folding equity. If you call, you are out of position postflop.

Also you might get called by a lower pair, a medium suited connector, or Ax where you are a big favorite. You will also frequently get villain to fold hands like these and worse junk hands he was stealing with.

Don't be weak/tight.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think a lot of players will call you w/ two overcards, and I just don't see a reason to put it all on a coinflip given your stack, and that point in the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not a coinflip. You are ahead like 57-43 against AKo-ATo. It's about even against JTs or QJs. You also have pot odds and folding equity. If you call, you are out of position postflop.

Also you might get called by a lower pair, a medium suited connector, or Ax where you are a big favorite. You will also frequently get villain to fold hands like these and worse junk hands he was stealing with.

Don't be weak/tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just think calling PF and betting pretty much any flop is the better move, I'm not really being weak/tight. Say hero 2/3 bets the flop and villian comes back all in, you can easily fold. But in my experiance, often enough the flop bet is basically a resteal, without putting all your chips at risk.

What if the flop comes 258? This allows hero to check/raise the flop, and extract much more than if villian had just folded PF. I don't like going all in when I really don't need to PF, and like I said a lot of donks will call w/ just two overcards (especially since villian has a pretty big stack). Even if that's EV, this isn't limit, you don't need that pot to win and you have plenty of time.

[scal78]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think a lot of players will call you w/ two overcards, and I just don't see a reason to put it all on a coinflip given your stack, and that point in the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]



It's not a coinflip. You are ahead like 57-43 against AKo-ATo. It's about even against JTs or QJs. You also have pot odds and folding equity. If you call, you are out of position postflop.

Also you might get called by a lower pair, a medium suited connector, or Ax where you are a big favorite. You will also frequently get villain to fold hands like these and worse junk hands he was stealing with.

Don't be weak/tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the push. The chances are strong that he is button-raising and stealing your blind. If he backs off and folds, then he knows that you're going to play back at him and he'll likely be raising with strong hands on the button from here on out. I think a lot of good can be made in the long term by pushing.

[pottie]

Glad to see its not that straightforward a decision...

I pushed, got called by AJo and was eliminated with a J on the river.

[betgo]

With 99 vs AJ and pot odds, your EV is like +2.5 x BB. A lot of times you will bust out with the right play.

It was a straightforward decision. You made the only play.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
With 99 vs AJ and pot odds, your EV is like +2.5 x BB. A lot of times you will bust out with the right play.

It was a straightforward decision. You made the only play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, I disagree. Hero could have bet the flop, and villian probably would have folded when he probably didn't have any draws (I don't know 100% for sure since we aren't given the board). I don't think the EV edge was enough, especially since hero has a reasonably big enough stack. If hero had maybe 6 or 7 bbs, that's a push back or a call/push on the flop situation. Here it's just uneccessary IMO.

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
With 99 vs AJ and pot odds, your EV is like +2.5 x BB. A lot of times you will bust out with the right play.

It was a straightforward decision. You made the only play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its ridiculous to say that pushing 23bbs is the only play. A case could certainly be made for smoothcalling

[TheJackal]

[ QUOTE ]
Its ridiculous to say that pushing 23bbs is the only play. A case could certainly be made for smoothcalling

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah because you can get away from a AKQ flop with 20 BB's, or bet on a 257 flop with the best hand.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Its ridiculous to say that pushing 23bbs is the only play. A case could certainly be made for smoothcalling


[/ QUOTE ]

A bad case. When in doubt push to defend your blind. Plus the push looks like AK-AJ, KQ, or a suited connector, so a lower pp is likely to call.

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Its ridiculous to say that pushing 23bbs is the only play. A case could certainly be made for smoothcalling


[/ QUOTE ]

A bad case. When in doubt push to defend your blind. Plus the push looks like AK-AJ, KQ, or a suited connector, so a lower pp is likely to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. You will usually only get called with TT-AA, AK-AQ. Maybe you'll get some calls from 88-66. But the point is that the times where you do get called you are often a 4:1 dog, and usually no better than a 55:45 favorite. I don't have pokerstove on this computer, but my intuition is that this is a marginal play against a reasonable range of hands. The times where you are up against TT-AA you lose 19bbs. You have to make up for that with A LOT of folds (in which you only win 4 bbs) and 55:45 situations for the play to be +EV

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree. You will usually only get called with TT-AA, AK-AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is button versus BB. Button will call with a lot of hands. However, he probably has something pretty marginal he has to fold, so you pick up a nice pot. Getting him to put all that money in a 57-43 dog plus pot odds with ace/face is about as EV+ as getting him to fold. If villain has a bigger pair, you probably also lose a lot of chips or go bust if you smooth call.

If you play the flop OK, smooth calling is also very EV+, but pushing is better for discouraging future steals.

[luckycharms]

Ok, let's assume that in this position, our opponent will have two overcards about 60% of the time (I think this is fair considering random distribution and most people's raising standards) An overcard to the 9s are going to fall something like 85% of the time (I used to know exactly, someone correct me.)

So, Dave, you're arguing that regardless of the texture of the flop, you bet out 2/3 pot? So basically, if they hit their hand and you're able to fold to a raise, you end up losing about 800 chips on the hand, whereas if they miss and fold, you only win 450? I just don't think this is the best way to go about the hand.

If you push, you're going to win the 450 without letting your opponent see three new cards (which is obviously to their advantage more than yours.) The chance that they have TT-AA is VERY slim, and they'd probably call with 66-88 cancelling out a few of those big pairs.... Maybe i don't have enough confidence in my flop game, but I really don't like risking 1/7th of my stack pf with a hand that is sooooo easily beat on the flop

Whats wrong w/ the line of raising to 900-1000 and folding to a reraise should he make one. You have enough folding equity on the flop should he call.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Whats wrong w/ the line of raising to 900-1000 and folding to a reraise should he make one. You have enough folding equity on the flop should he call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising to 1000 is OK too, but you have to call a reraise. You are pretty pot committed at that point and the reraise could as easily be AJ-AK as TT-AA.

So the range of hands you would call the re-raise against that don't have you totally destroyed are AJ-AK?

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, let's assume that in this position, our opponent will have two overcards about 60% of the time (I think this is fair considering random distribution and most people's raising standards) An overcard to the 9s are going to fall something like 85% of the time (I used to know exactly, someone correct me.)

So, Dave, you're arguing that regardless of the texture of the flop, you bet out 2/3 pot? So basically, if they hit their hand and you're able to fold to a raise, you end up losing about 800 chips on the hand, whereas if they miss and fold, you only win 450? I just don't think this is the best way to go about the hand.

If you push, you're going to win the 450 without letting your opponent see three new cards (which is obviously to their advantage more than yours.) The chance that they have TT-AA is VERY slim, and they'd probably call with 66-88 cancelling out a few of those big pairs.... Maybe i don't have enough confidence in my flop game, but I really don't like risking 1/7th of my stack pf with a hand that is sooooo easily beat on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess this really depends on my read of villian. To me this smells like a steal from his end, and so I think maybe even 1/2 pot bet would get him to fold.

Based on my read of this situation (and my experiance of it), I think villian will have overcards most of the time, and call a PF push most of the time. Thats why I like my play better.

Again, if he raises back at me I can fold without really worrying that much, but chances are he'll fold.

I don't understand why you'd risk a flip at best against a button with 13bb's left after your raise

[fnurt]

What is it they say, donkeys always push? With your stack I call and bet the flop.

Making huge overbets to "defend" one's blind is a big hole in the game of many online players. With over 20 BB, it's silly to gamble your entire stack on the proposition that the button is stealing.

I am more inclined to win a 450 chip pot off a 1000 chip bet with 23 bb's with the risk of ending up with 13 than I am to win a 46bb pot when the range of hands he needs to call isn't less than TT-AA or AJ-AK if you push. And at the same time if he folds in my scenerio then it still will have given the impression that your blinds are not to be stolen. I just recently started playing again, so please tell me if I am way off base here.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
What is it they say, donkeys always push? With your stack I call and bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

No donkeys always call. Good players raise or fold, particularly out of position.

[slickpoppa]

So how many BBs do you need to be out of all-in or fold mode in this situation? And at that point do you raise or call?

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
So how many BBs do you need to be out of all-in or fold mode in this situation? And at that point do you raise or call?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are not in allin fold mode. You could smooth call with a weaker hand. You could also make a smaller raise with 99, but you would be pot committed out of position, so why not push.

It is partly a matter of style, but if I had 76s in the BB, I would probably push at the button in this situation. It seems more EV+ than calling with that hand and you need to make aggressive late position raisers leave you alone.

I might smooth call in the BB with some marginal hand I was getting pot odds to see a flop with. In general though when no one is acting behind you, it usually better to raise than call.

Calling to see a flop is a common error of loose/passive calling station type players.If you raise, you often pick up the pot without a fight.

[fnurt]

It's crazy to think that the only options you have in the blind are push and fold. Are you pushing here with 80 BB's?

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
It's crazy to think that the only options you have in the blind are push and fold. Are you pushing here with 80 BB's?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, but I am raising.

[slickpoppa]

I understand that you are not all-in or fold with every hand. But my question is with 99 specifically, how many BBs do you need for you to think that pushing is not the optimal play?

[adios]

And if he has TT,JJ,QQ,KK when and Ace flops you won't bluff him out ever with Dave's strategy? I agree though that calling and playing after the flop is trickier.

[davidross]

Once again another situation where everyone is going to play it different. I don't even consider raising here. I don't want his 300 chips I want them all. I call here and play post-flop accordingly.

I think pushing is just reckless. You can win 300, and you can lose your stack.

Now if there are other considerations I'm willing to reconsider. Has he been attacking your blind everytime? Are you trying to send a message?

How does he play postflop? If you get a good flop can you count on him betting so you can check-raise?

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's crazy to think that the only options you have in the blind are push and fold. Are you pushing here with 80 BB's?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, but I am raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

But you're not raising 20 BB, I'm pretty sure of that!

[davidross]

As you said it's a matter of style, and as long as your play here with 99 fits the way you would play AA or 76s then any move you make here is correct as far as I'm concerned. I would call with 76s, a lot of funny suited cards actually, and also AA and KK. So 99 I call too. I'm sure not pushing with anything, and I don't like raising to 1000 because then I am committed, and I don't want 99 to be the hand I make my stand with.

I've never been in the camp of the people who say you have to discourage people from stealing your blinds. I love limping in the SB then folding to the BB raise. I give up my blinds a lot without a fight. THen when the blinds get big enough I get everything back and then some (at least that's the plan).

[adios]

[ QUOTE ]
I've never been in the camp of the people who say you have to discourage people from stealing your blinds. I love limping in the SB then folding to the BB raise. I give up my blinds a lot without a fight. THen when the blinds get big enough I get everything back and then some (at least that's the plan).

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW I think this is often good MTT strategy. Paradoxically I like betgo's strategy often in single table no limit tourneys again FWIW.

[durron597]

David-

I don't understand how you get more chips out of him by just calling with 99 when you don't flop a set. If he has AK (for example, and that's generous) if the flop comes Qxx you probably still aren't getting very much more out of him. Plus 99 also flops at least 1 over most of the time so you're going to be worried if he's cont. betting you or if he actually paired.

I could see calling an SB raise. But with 99, I really don't want to play a hand that rarely hits the flop hard out of position with many possible scary flops.

I push here.

[Uppercut]

[ QUOTE ]
I've never been in the camp of the people who say you have to discourage people from stealing your blinds. I love limping in the SB then folding to the BB raise. I give up my blinds a lot without a fight. Then when the blinds get big enough I get everything back and then some (at least that's the plan).

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly! I just finished winning a SnG against a maniac on my left who constantly was stealing my small blind early in the tournament when I would try to limp in. I purposely kept limping and letting him steal my blind until I got a monster (KK) late in the tourney and limped again. Of course, he raised big and then I clobbered him.

Was curious about the percentages of an overcard appearing on flop vs. a PP. Turns out...

with 99 - one or more overcards appears 79% of the time
with TT - 65%
with JJ - 57%
with QQ - 41%
with KK - 23%

Handy.

-turbo

[davidross]

I'm looking to get more out of him. Either by flopping a set, or having him bluff off on the flop. But I have no problem laying it down post flop either. 99 just isn't good enough at this point of the tournament for me to want to put it all on the line. If the BB was 300 then sure, but not whenI have over 20 BB's left.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Either by flopping a set, or having him bluff off on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the flop comes Kxx or Axx it's going to be hard to play this hand correctly OUT OF POSITION. Again, if he was the SB I like the flatcall.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing is excessive here with 23 bb. You will only get called by a better hand and will likely be a 4:1 dog. Either raise to 900 or smoothcall depending on how aggressive the button is.

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all: that's not true. You'll get called by a number of overcards and probably a few lower pairs. Raising to 900 means you're going to have a pot of 1800 if he calls with about the same amount back. And you'll be playing heads up out of position. Blech. I like calling here better than raising less than all-in, but I think the all-in raise is best.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Whats wrong w/ the line of raising to 900-1000 and folding to a reraise should he make one. You have enough folding equity on the flop should he call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising to 1000 is OK too, but you have to call a reraise. You are pretty pot committed at that point and the reraise could as easily be AJ-AK as TT-AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

...and if he calls you're playing a medium pocket pair out of postion with about as much in your stack as there is in the pot. If that's not an invitation to make mistakes, I don't know what is. If you were going to have position (like he was CU and you were the button) I like a smaller raise better. But I think most players are stealing here the majority of the time and you will easily get enough folds to make up for the times you run into TT-AA.

[betgo]

Villain is going to have TT-AA about 1.8% of the time. So if he raises 35% of the time it is passed to him on the button, there is a 5% chance he has TT-AA. So 99 is ahead 95% of the time. By pushing, you make him fold or put a lot of money in as the underdog.