Fearing monsters, call or 3-bet on river?

Hi, my first post.
(The HH is handwritten)

My question is really about how to think about possible hands and villains thoughts about what I hold.

I have no real reads, as I usually don't pay attention on hands that I'm not involved with, but I had the impression of MP as an reasonable player (based only on nr of pots entered).

Pacific 0.5/1 Hold'em (full ring)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
2 folds, Hero raises, MP calls, 1 folds, CO calls, button calls, SB folds, BB folds.

Flop: (9.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
Hero bets, MP raises, CO folds, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, MP calls, button calls.

Turn: (10.5 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, MP calls, button calls.

River: (13.5 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, MP raises, button calls, Hero calls.

With the action on the flop and me betting out turn and river I assumed MPs raise ment he could at least beat a big Ace, which would mean he has me beaten.
(As I wrote this post I realized there was a possible flush, I didn't really notice it when I played the hand. If I had, I would be more inclined to reraise, as there would be a reason for MPs raise that I can beat.)

Is my reasoning OK here? Is this a no-brainer? I tend to not bet for value in a lot of situations on the river and this is an effort to figure out if I miss out on value.

[Kumubou]

You know you hold the second nuts, right? Right? If someone really has AA here they can have my schoolgirl uniform.

On the flop the only hand you are behind is AA, on the turn you are also behind the monster hand J9. That is the really nice river for you -- it may give someone a flush or trip As. <font color="pink">PUSH IT!!</font>

-K

[Eeegah]

(grunching)

[ QUOTE ]
Hi, my first post.
(The HH is handwritten)

My question is really about how to think about possible hands and villains thoughts about what I hold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well nice of you to admit to it, but you don't want to do that /images/graemlins/smile.gif

As for the ha--WTF? Dude, One hand out of a possible A LOT can beat you here. Less than one hand--two specific cards! In addition, someone's probably caught a flush or maybe three aces and is just dying to lose here. You need to (a) get this river capped, and (b) wish there wasn't a cap.

Edit: if someone had AA this would have been 3-bet preflop. You've got like a 99.99999999999999% chance of winning here.

[ QUOTE ]
You know you hold the second nuts, right? Right? If someone really has AA here they can have my schoolgirl uniform.

On the flop the only hand you are behind is AA, on the turn you are also behind the monster hand J9. That is the really nice river for you -- it may give someone a flush or trip As. <font color="pink">PUSH IT!!</font>

-K

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree to everything except that the only thing I need to fear is AA. It looked to me like MP improved with the A falling in a way that did not imporove my hand as well. Ergo: he has AT.

[Eeegah]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You know you hold the second nuts, right? Right? If someone really has AA here they can have my schoolgirl uniform.

On the flop the only hand you are behind is AA, on the turn you are also behind the monster hand J9. That is the really nice river for you -- it may give someone a flush or trip As. <font color="pink">PUSH IT!!</font>

-K

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree to everything except that the only thing I need to fear is AA. It looked to me like MP improved with the A falling in a way that did not imporove my hand as well. Ergo: he has AT.

[/ QUOTE ]

He could, but he still could also have hit a flush or trips. I still cap this sans thought.

[Kumubou]

That is true -- AT, A8, A7 do beat you now. So?

That still does not change the fact that you should be jamming this river as fast as you humanly can. The hand range people will raise here that you beat (trip As, a flush, complete air) is a lot wider than the hand range that beats you (AA, AT, A8, A7).

Also: WTF did the BB go?

-K

[ QUOTE ]

As for the ha--WTF? Dude, One hand out of a possible A LOT can beat you here. Less than one hand--two specific cards! In addition, someone's probably caught a flush or maybe three aces and is just dying to lose here. You need to (a) get this river capped, and (b) wish there wasn't a cap.

Edit: if someone had AA this would have been 3-bet preflop. You've got like a 99.99999999999999% chance of winning here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I completely bonkers or cannot AT, A8 or A7 beat my full house?

Apart from that, what you are telling me is what I want to hear. I'm missing out on value in these situations.

[ QUOTE ]


Also: WTF did the BB go?

-K

[/ QUOTE ]

An error on my part, it was the button that 3-betted the flop. I don't know what he had, an Ace, flush or a straight I guess.

To complete the story:
MP had AQ (no flush). I can't figure out why he thought a raise on the river would earn him money. The only reasonable hand I could have had that did that for him was AJ or possibly A9s.

[JKDStudent]

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop the only hand you are behind is AA, on the turn you are also behind the monster hand J9. That is the really nice river for you -- it may give someone a flush or trip As. <font color="pink">PUSH IT!!</font>

-K

[/ QUOTE ]

What she said. But let's get back to what's really important here:

[ QUOTE ]
...my schoolgirl uniform.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

*Edit* Keep in mind here, a raise doesn't mean they can beat a big Ace. You raised pf. For all this person knows, you are just making a continuation bet. Maybe you have TT-KK or AT-AJ. The raise doesn't mean he can BEAT a big Ace, it more likely means he has one. Button is the one I'd be more worried about with that 3-bet. But when he doesn't raise you on the turn, that's a pretty good indication that you're good here.

So yeah, pump this river.

[Thoth]

With the extra dead money from the button (as he'll no doubt call another raise as well) you don't even need to be good here 50% of the time for a raise to make you money and I think you're good a lot more than that. If they had AT/A7/A8 they would probably have raised the turn.

[sirana]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In Antwort auf:</font><hr />
I have no real reads, as I usually don't pay attention on hands that I'm not involved with

[/ QUOTE ]
you should...

I just call the river. I'm quite sure MP doesn't raise a backdoor flush draw on the flop without an Ace. Assuming that button 3-bet flop (since BB is out of the hand), it is pretty likely that on of them has an Ace.
Not enough to fold with one bet back to you in a 18BB pot, but definitily no 3-bet.

Edit: What I said right now is bullshit. I thought there were 2 T on the board and u had only on. with the set-fullhouse I 3bet.

[Dave G.]

Please bet and raise and reraise and so forth and go as nuts as absolutely possible on the river thankyou sir have a good day.

[Duerig]

[ QUOTE ]

With the action on the flop and me betting out turn and river I assumed MPs raise ment he could at least beat a big Ace, which would mean he has me beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have Ts full. I think you need to find another raise on this river.