Do you like this bubble push?

[calamere]

I had been very aggressive in the last two hands and taken down both pots with no showdown. Was this a good push? +EV at all? Wait for a better spot? Obviously I don't need the chips but I'm trying to improve my aggression level especially in the SB.


***** Hand History for Game 2425841753 *****
300/600 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 14267746) - Tue Jul 26 02:13:00 EDT 2005
Table Table 14099 (Real Money) -- Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: bmxreed_36 (1290)
Seat 3: Cooldudeon (1810)
Seat 7: teddykgb319 (3100)
Seat 8: calamere (1800)
calamere posts small blind (150)
bmxreed_36 posts big blind (300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to calamere [ 3d, Tc ]
Cooldudeon folds.
teddykgb319 folds.
calamere raises (1650) to 1800
calamere is all-In.
bmxreed_36 calls (990)
bmxreed_36 is all-In.
Creating Main Pot with $2580 with bmxreed_36
Creating Side Pot 1 with $510 with calamere
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 3h, Jc, 4d ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 2d ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 5d ]

[lastchance]

I don't think I can fold T-high here.

[The Don]

I fold this every time... especially since you have a loose image. The shortest stack always has the widest calling range. There is no value in risking your tournament in this spot.

[tigerite]

No I don't like this, you're giving him odds to call with a very wide range of hands, and T3o isn't ahead of enough of them. He only has ~3BB behind after posting the blind

[Maulik]

sb+ bb = t900 + t1650 = t2550

t690 remaining, he's getting 4:1. he has to call

[tigerite]

That's what I mean. By 'very wide' I was basically including everything bar the absolute crap like 32o. But he has 990 remaining not 690.

[willbb99]

Since when does only having 6x BB mean that you're not in need of any chips? I think you need chips pretty badly. That being said, I would still wait for a better spot.

[wildzer0]

You do need the chips and I push this every time.

[45suited]

Especially given this:

[ QUOTE ]
I had been very aggressive in the last two hands and taken down both pots with no showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

Coupled with the fact that BB is in getting the odds to call and needs to gamble, pushing here with 12 SBs is very bad. Not even very close IMO.

[wildzer0]

I'm surprised to see everyone saying to fold this. I'm not sure I understand the reasoning. From what I've seen, many opponents are completely willing to fold with only 3bb and some tighten up considerably and hope for someone to bust out first on the bubble. I think hero has a pretty good chance of getting villian to fold here. Combined with the fact that he needs the chips, I think this is a push. I don't have time to do the math at work, but I think that even given a pretty big calling range, this is still a push.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't have time to do the math at work, but I think that even given a pretty big calling range, this is still a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero has T3o! Do the math??? Are you serious? And hero is not desperate for chips. Yes, he has 6BBs, as does another player and the shortstack has even less. If you think there's a good chance of being called here (especially after pushing the last two hands) this should be an easy fold.

It's people doing crazy stuff like this that makes a little bit of patience a very +EV quality in spots like this.

[wildzer0]

Unless work has killed my brain, which is quite possible, I think villian is calling with 990 to win 1590, which is about 1.6 to 1. Right? blinds are 150/300, villian has 990 after posting. so 150 + 300 = 450 + 1140 (the amount of hero's bet that villian can win) = 1590.

[BigDave]

I agree with this 100%, and I would fold. Given the same circumstances (Same stack sizes, Hero pushed last 2 hands, BB will have odds to call), what are you pushing here?

[wildzer0]

My point is that I don't think we can give villian an average calling range of more than about the top 30%. You seem to give him a much higher calling range but I think with the other short stack, there's a decent possibility he's going to try to wait it out. Sure some will call with any two here, especially after the last two pushes, but some will take a stance of "he's pushing everything, he'll be out soon. I'll fold and wait." So maybe a read beyond OP's own table image would be helpful here.

[TheGremlin]

I read this thread and cant get exactly the point of the people who say to push it.

u have 10 3 off suite. it is realy stupid to push here for the following reason.

this is a BREAK/MAKE hand if u play it.
if he has a medium hand , you can be SURE he calls you .
do you realy want to risk your tourney on that call ?

if u fold here u have more chips to play and allmost 100% you will have a better chance to push with better cards.

i dont see it as an EV question , it is just stupid to push it here since if he calls , you probably dead ! and his BB not worth it at this stage.

[schwza]

i think that villain is not calling any two, but he's calling a lot of hands. Q7, J9, 33, etc. he will be down to 1k if he folds here with the other short stacks at 2.1k and 1.8k. i think he's going to call you with a pretty wide range if he's any good.

[wildzer0]

OK, maybe my brain's not working right today. BB is getting 1.6 to 1 odds, right? Maybe it's a leak but I'm not calling with any two even from a very aggressive player with those odds. 3 bb still has a decent amount of fold equity when the chip leader only has 10bb. If my math is off, I apologize and i'll rethink the situation.

[curtains]

Of course the villian is not calling any 2 here. They should have a wide range, but to even discuss the idea that the BB will call with any 2 cards is absurd. Players at this level fold all the time when they are obviously pot committed and that's not even the case here.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
3 bb still has a decent amount of fold equity when the chip leader only has 10bb.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then why do you feel so desperate to push with junk here from the SB when you have almost 6BBs? Villain probably is not calling with any two, but with a pretty wide range, especially after hero pushed the last two hands.

[TheGremlin]

any reasonable player would call this push with any medium hand, not top 30 . maybe 45 - 50.

short stack , the guy infront just push 3 hands in a raw.
that is a call you dont want him to make. and u dont steal from people if u know they will chase you down.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, maybe my brain's not working right today. BB is getting 1.6 to 1 odds, right? Maybe it's a leak but I'm not calling with any two even from a very aggressive player with those odds. 3 bb still has a decent amount of fold equity when the chip leader only has 10bb. If my math is off, I apologize and i'll rethink the situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

990 to win 1440 isn't 1.6 to 1. He will call with quite a wide range. No, not any two, but certainly a lot more hands than would make this move +EV, IMO.

Dunno where you got 1590 and 1190 from, it's 1440, his original stack, plus the SB of 150..

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course the villian is not calling any 2 here. They should have a wide range, but to even discuss the idea that the BB will call with any 2 cards is absurd. Players at this level fold all the time when they are obviously pot committed and that's not even the case here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, but I still fold from the SB here. The other thing is that players at this level are also far more likely to spite call after you pushed the last two. What would you do here as the SB?

[KennyBanya]

BB can win 1290 from the hero. BB has posted 300. He risks his remaining 990 if he calls.

1290+300=1590, and 1590/990 is 1.606.

Tigerite, how is this not 1.6 to 1?

Maulik's calculations in this thread are way off.

Peace,

KennyBanya

[tigerite]

Where does the SB of 150 go then?!

He wins his original stack before the BB, of 1290, plus the SB, of 150. This is 1440. So it is basically (1440 + 990)/1440, which is 1.6875. You win the 1440 _and_ get your 990 back.

[curtains]

I would probably fold

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
BB can win 1290 from the hero. BB has posted 300. He risks his remaining 990 if he calls.

1290+300=1590, and 1590/990 is 1.606.

Tigerite, how is this not 1.6 to 1?

Maulik's calculations in this thread are way off.

Peace,

KennyBanya

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes he is getting 1.6:1 and I fold.

[11t]

After pushing 2 consecutive hands I'd put the brakes on for a few hands. Pushing rags like this versus somebody's who's calling range is going to be very wide is -EV.

Meta-game baby.

[AliasMrJones]

FWIW, ICM says even if BB will call with top 70% of hands, it is still slightly +EV to push. At 75% it becomes negative. If he'll only call with top 50% of hands this is a must-push.

This is a $33 buy-in or below. With 4 players left at 300/600 it looks like you've got a bunch of tighties. I think BB will fold here more often than some of you think.

[curtains]

My ICM calculation says something much different than yours. (Meaning that if called 70% of the time, you are losing a boatload of money by pushing T3o here)

My numbers say that this is the tightest range where you still show a very small profit:

22+,A2+,K2+,Q8o+,Q4s+,J9o+,J8s+,T9s

I suspect that most of the time they will be tighter than this, but okay your poor image whilst combined with their stack size is a problem.

[AliasMrJones]

[ QUOTE ]
My ICM calculation says something much different than yours. (Meaning that if called 70% of the time, you are losing a boatload of money by pushing T3o here)

My numbers say that this is the tightest range where you still show a very small profit:

22+,A2+,K2+,Q8o+,Q4s+,J9o+,J8s+,T9s

I suspect that most of the time they will be tighter than this, but okay your poor image whilst combined with their stack size is a problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are using eastbay's proggy? I just ran it again. At 70% calling range( 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T5o+,T2s+,96o+,94s+,87o,85s+,7 5s+) I get + 0.3%.

[curtains]

I don't get those results Im sorry. One of us is clearly entering something incorrectly.

[AliasMrJones]

Are you using Party $33 structure? I've run it twice now typing everything in twice so I'm pretty sure my numbers are correct.

[curtains]

I still get huge -EV. Can you make a screenshot of your program?

[AliasMrJones]

Bah - re-did it yet again and realized I put in the 300/600 from the top as blinds and that's Party's pseudo-limits in a NL tourney and blinds are actually 150/300. I guess I'm not used to running this thing without a hand history to auto-pilot.

Never mind.

[KennyBanya]

Tigerite, the 150 didnt "go" anywhere. The hero is the small blind so it is included in the push. The BB can only win the amount of chips he has from the Hero, so you cant count all of the Hero's chips, only the amount the BB has.

Maybe reread the original post.

KennyBanya