question about continuation bets

[orenthal]

is a continuation bet worth it when you dont connect on the flop and you know that everyone behind you will call no matter what?
totally random example:
say for instance you have AK and the flop is 3 7 Q. should you bet if first to act or checked into if you know that it will be called by the donks on your table? i know that you could never know 100%, but if you have a pretty good feel for the table you can usually be pretty sure.

[pryor15]

the short answer is yes.

why do you think they'll call? because they call a lot? if so, you want them to call, b/c if they're just calling w/ garbage you're ahead. but if they missed the flop, they'll probably fold either the flop or the turn.

if you check, you're only gonna win if you hit your A or K, b/c someone's gonna bet it for you.

[orenthal]

[ QUOTE ]
the short answer is yes.

why do you think they'll call? because they call a lot? if so, you want them to call, b/c if they're just calling w/ garbage you're ahead. but if they missed the flop, they'll probably fold either the flop or the turn.

if you check, you're only gonna win if you hit your A or K, b/c someone's gonna bet it for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

excellent point about them calling with garbage.

[arsixsixwy]

Well, (OBVIOUS ANSWER ALERT) it depends.

In general, I think of continuation bets as semi-bluffs: you may have the best hand, but a bet may also pick up the pot right then, and if you're called, you may still improve to the best hand. If there's just about no chance that you can pick up the pot right there, the semi-bluff loses much of its value.

[orenthal]

[ QUOTE ]
If there's just about no chance that you can pick up the pot right there, the semi-bluff loses much of its value.

[/ QUOTE ]

that was kind of the root of my question. if there is little chance of picking up the pot right there is it better to check and hope for the free card to either improve your hand or at least force villians to call the larger turn bet if there is still no action?