stealing line

[cdxx]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

MP3 is not my favorite place to steal from, but what the hell. i haven't played a pot in a couple of orbits. no reads on the callers.

Flop: (6 SB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

continuation bet. obviously representing an ace, but with a consealed club draw.

Turn: (4.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

again representing an ace, but the CR makes me think he filled up his sixes or maybe A6, or A-rag. though i don't really have a read on him.

River: (8.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

he checked which means he probably can't beat the flush. and by now i think my flush is fairly obvious.

Final Pot: 10.50 BB

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
again representing an ace, but the CR makes me think he filled up his sixes or maybe A6, or A-rag. though i don't really have a read on him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bolded is MUBS. Ace-rag hands are far more likely.

Except by looking into the future, why would he check trip aces on the river unless he has MUBS as well? (The M is actually there this time, but it doesn't make checking right...)

Why is your flush fairly obvious? Why isn't it something like KK-QQ or KQ, or a medium pocket pair?

I think you got looked up by a jack or a six.

[MrWookie47]

I'm leaning towards checking that turn. They didn't fold on the flop when an A was staring them in the face, so I don't think they're going away. If one of them has the A, you're reasonably likely to get check/raised here (trying not to be results oriented). Since you can't fold to a check/raise, I think I check with outs here. If you hit on the river, you get to raise a bet that will come to try to steal.