the wrong way to use Clarkmeister's theorem?

[pryor15]

villain is about 62/10/1 over 30 hands for the session i played w/ him, but this is pretty early in it, so i have no real reads, just a sense he's kinda loose.

i also got called a fish by the table coach after this hand, which did great things for me on my other table with him.

PokerRoom 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: pryor15 is BB with 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif , 4/images/graemlins/club.gif .
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, pryor15 checks.

Flop: (4 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
pryor15 checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP3 folds, SB folds, pryor15 calls.

Turn: (2.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">pryor15 bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: (4.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">pryor15 bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

in retrospect, i'm thinking i should give up on the river and just try to see the showdown for free. i don't know that he calls the turn with a hand i can beat when my straight hits. but he might, right?

[arsixsixwy]

To address the subject of the post, the Clarkmeister theorem dictates betting when the fourth flush card comes on the river, not on the turn. I'll reply to the hand itself shortly.

[pryor15]

[ QUOTE ]
To address the subject of the post, the Clarkmeister theorem dictates betting when the fourth flush card comes on the river, not on the turn. I'll reply to the hand itself shortly.

[/ QUOTE ]

my bad. i must have missed that somehow.

[mmmmmbrother]

i can see him calling with two pair. but what is he betting on the flop that you should stay in for 5:1 pot odds. i think your oesd outs are partly discounted for sure.


i thought clark was just when the 4th suit hit on the river

[eviljeff]

I think c/f is the best line for flop and turn. c/c seems better than b/f (or b/c) for the river, especially since 2/4 players can be trickier, in my experience.

[pryor15]

[ QUOTE ]
i can see him calling with two pair. but what is he betting on the flop that you should stay in for 5:1 pot odds. i think your oesd outs are partly discounted for sure.


[/ QUOTE ]

JTo? 2 pair?

[Claunchy]

Yeah, this isn't Clarkmeister, but I like it fine. I see no reason whatsoever to give a loose villain like that credit for the flush, and if you check to him on the turn he will undoubtedly bet, with or without it.

[arsixsixwy]

Preflop: I guess you can see a free flop. If they force you to.

Flop: I hate this call. This pot is superdupersmall, you have eight outs to a straight, but really only six to a straight you feel good about, and since you may be drawing dead already, I might even discount it to more like 5 outs. Fold this. Now.

Turn: Accidental misapplication of Clarkmeister theorem. Okay. To an offsuit blank, you're check/folding, right?

River: Well, you made your hand. Too bad it's beaten by a heart. Any heart in the world. Villain would be pretty dumb to be calling you down without one, so howsabout we try for a free showdown? You're not getting called by anything you beat.

[arsixsixwy]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, this isn't Clarkmeister, but I like it fine. I see no reason whatsoever to give a loose villain like that credit for the flush, and if you check to him on the turn he will undoubtedly bet, with or without it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you taken a look at the pot size?

[Nfinity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, this isn't Clarkmeister, but I like it fine. I see no reason whatsoever to give a loose villain like that credit for the flush, and if you check to him on the turn he will undoubtedly bet, with or without it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you taken a look at the pot size?

[/ QUOTE ]

So your suggesting Chck-Folding the Turn right?

Yeah, I wouldn't like a Check/ Call there if it wasn't 4 to a flush, so I don' like betting out even more.

[toddw8]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, this isn't Clarkmeister, but I like it fine. I see no reason whatsoever to give a loose villain like that credit for the flush, and if you check to him on the turn he will undoubtedly bet, with or without it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you taken a look at the pot size?

[/ QUOTE ]

So your suggesting Chck-Folding the Turn right?

Yeah, I wouldn't like a Check/ Call there if it wasn't 4 to a flush, so I don' like betting out even more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly, 3.5:1 is not good enough here to call the turn. The pot is small, let it go.

[sirana]

grunch

I fold this flop. yeah, he might be bluffingm, but you are getting 5-1, which would be barely worth the call if your outs were to the nuts. The pot is just too small to get tricky with this.

[Amerretto]

Grunch

Flop: fold, odds are way to small

Turn Check / fold, again any heart beats you at this point, even any pair beats you, pot odds are still way to small.

[Nfinity]

[ QUOTE ]
grunch

I fold this flop. yeah, he might be bluffingm, but you are getting 5-1, which would be barely worth the call if your outs were to the nuts. The pot is just too small to get tricky with this.

[/ QUOTE ]

YIKES!

I didn't see that villian was last to act after everyone else folded. At first I was thinking you could swing a marginal call here but you can't for 2 reasons:

1. There is almost no way to get any value from this hand. If a non-heart completes his hand, and hero bets, gee it would suck to get raised. I'd say the best line if you complete safely on the Turn is to Check call down, almost assuring a max pot of 4.5 BB maybe less.

2. The times that you do complete on the Turn and are good, your subject to a whole heap of of Redraws most of the time. These are what we call in the biz Reverse Implied Odds, and they Sux.

Fold the Flop.

And good job n00b dudes for pointing this out.