I'm just going to call down with this one... [Archive]

View Full Version : I'm just going to call down with this one...

Aaron W.

07-25-2005, 11:24 PM

Villain is a little aggro (Edit: Just looked up his stats... change that to a very aggro 75/30 -- I guess I thought it wasn't so bad because he had calmed down quite a bit by the time I left the table). When he raises preflop, he's willing to fire on all three rounds. I'm not sure of his ability to fold because nobody has challenged him. Here's another encounter I had with him early in the session (Button in this hand):

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB calls, Hero folds.

Turn: (5.75 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Button bets, BB calls.

River: (7.75 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Button bets, BB folds.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

Results in white below: 
Button has 4c Jh (flush, king high).
Outcome: Button wins 8.75 BB. 

I have results because he flashed his hand before mucking. I think that hand is pretty standard, but if you want to say something about it, go ahead. Here's the real hand I'm thinking about...

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG raises, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (4 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero calls.

River: (5 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 7 BB

gharp

07-26-2005, 12:20 AM

It sounds like you're thinking against this guy is "I'm defending with any 2 cards and then calling down if I get any piece of the board". I don't think the calling down part is a terrible strategy (esp. 4-handed), but I'd like to have a little more to defend with.

With 63o you're an underdog to pretty much anything villain has preflop. I'd pick a spot where I have just a little more hand than that, and preferably some showdown value.

shadow29

07-26-2005, 12:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6, 3.
UTG raises, 2 folds, Hero calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

And I get hated on for wanting to defend with Q8?

I'm sure you'll say:

blah blah blah live cards blah blah blah

blah blah blah 75/30 vs unknown blah blah blah

But I pre-emptively nix all those arguments. It's 63o.

Post flop is fine I suppose.

P.S. Thanks for not splitting the infinitive in your subject. That makes my day. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Aaron W.

07-26-2005, 12:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It sounds like you're thinking against this guy is "I'm defending with any 2 cards and then calling down if I get any piece of the board". I don't think the calling down part is a terrible strategy (esp. 4-handed), but I'd like to have a little more to defend with.

With 63o you're an underdog to pretty much anything villain has preflop. I'd pick a spot where I have just a little more hand than that, and preferably some showdown value.

[/ QUOTE ]

While I'm an underdog to almost everything he's got, I'm getting 3.5:1 to call. Not only that, I've got some implied odds because he's going to bet the flop, turn, and river with quite possibly the worst hand, but I can ditch this cheaply if I miss.

I don't care about showdown value because I'm probably going to the showdown only about 1/3 of the time. And I'm showing down with at least a pair.

Aaron W.

07-26-2005, 01:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6, 3.
UTG raises, 2 folds, Hero calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

And I get hated on for wanting to defend with Q8?

I'm sure you'll say:

blah blah blah live cards blah blah blah

blah blah blah 75/30 vs unknown blah blah blah

But I pre-emptively nix all those arguments. It's 63o.

Post flop is fine I suppose.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's 63o but blah blah blah...

The Q8o hand had lots working against it (domination, number of players, bad position...), and the only thing working against this one is that it's 63o. I'm not going to say that I'm right on this one, but...

33% of the time I end up calling down because I flopped my pair.

When I flop my pair, there's a chance that he has something better than my pair and there's a chance he'll catch a 6 outer against me. The 6-outer happens 24% of the time. What about the chances of us both hitting a pair at the same time.

Assuming he doesn't have a pair, it's something like

P(both of us pairing) = (6/48)*(6/47)*(36/46) = 1.2% of the time.

Continuing on in my mathematical ramble:

67% of the time, I fold on the flop for -1 SB.
1.2% of the time, we both flop a pair and I call down to lose 6 SB.
31.8% of the time, 24% of the time I get outdrawn after flopping my pair and lose 6 SB.
31.8% of the time, 76% of the time I hold up and win 8 SB.

EV = (.67)*(-1) + (.012)*(-6) + (.318*.24)*(-6) + (.318*.76)*(8)
= -.67 - .072 - .458 + 1.93
= .73

I haven't taken into account the times where he has a pocket pair that beats my pair (most of the time that he has a pocket pair), in which case I'm a 4:1 dog, or the times when I get to squeeze in a river raise with trips, or the times that we somehow split... But this looks pretty favorable to me.

[ QUOTE ]
P.S. Thanks for not splitting the infinitive in your subject. That makes my day. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I type English goot! (Or is it g00t?)

Hojglad

07-26-2005, 01:05 AM

What about the times when the board counterfeits your pair? Whether or not this guy is an idiot (the fact that you probably won this hand does NOT make this a good play at all), just fold pre-flop.

Aaron W.

07-26-2005, 01:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What about the times when the board counterfeits your pair? Whether or not this guy is an idiot, just fold pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

The board would have to be double paired to counterfeit me, unless I'm missing something obvious. If he has K8, I still win on a QT6T2 board. Double paired boards are pretty rare, though I don't have a number to give you.

Kumubou

07-26-2005, 01:09 AM

I think that pre-flop call is ugly... maybe there is some game-theory reason to use to defend your play. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Once you catch and the flop come rags, I like the calldown. Reminds me of a hand I just recently had (granted, I had an extra caller, a 5-high flop, and s00ted cards):

Absolute Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Heroine is BB with 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold, MP raises, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, Heroine calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Heroine checks, MP bets, Button calls, Heroine calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
Heroine checks, MP bets, Button folds, Heroine calls.

River: (6.75 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Heroine checks, MP bets, Heroine calls.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

Results in white below: 
MP has Ts Qd (one pair, fives).
Heroine has 4d 3d (two pair, fives and fours).
Outcome: Heroine wins 8.75 BB. 

-K

Hojglad

07-26-2005, 01:10 AM

I'm just asking you to take the chance that the board can double pair to counterfeit you into your calculations. I mean, sure, you made a terrible preflop call (obviously it carries a negative expectations, I don't think you would argue that), but when the K pairs on the turn, there is some chance that your hand is going to be counterfeited. Now, it obviously isn't very great in this situation, but in general, what would you do on a flop like 883?

I just freaking hate this preflop call.

Entity

07-26-2005, 01:11 AM

Even against a maniac, I'm folding this flop.

Rob

Hojglad

07-26-2005, 01:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Even against a maniac, I'm folding this flop.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't you mean pre-flop?

Kumubou

07-26-2005, 01:12 AM

There really is not a chance. Only an 8 would make his pair no good -- the 3s pairing would give him a boat, along with another K.

It's really rare, rare enough to discount completely from the calculations (unless you want to be obscenely anal).

-K

shadow29

07-26-2005, 01:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]

The Q8o hand had lots working against it (domination, number of players, bad position...), and the only thing working against this one is that it's 63o. I'm not going to say that I'm right on this one, but...

[/ QUOTE ]

Well the Q8 hand also has 3 times the pot odds. Also, we're pretty much in the same relative position in this hand.

Hojglad

07-26-2005, 01:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
There really is not a chance. Only an 8 would make his pair no good -- the 3s pairing would give him a boat, along with another K.

It's really rare, rare enough to discount completely from the calculations (unless you want to be obscenely anal).

-K

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with this sentiment (and I even acknowledged that in a subsequent post). My point was that his hand sucks so much that the board can render it totally worthless. If you are actually trying to advocate calling in the BB with 36o in a blind defense situation where it's heads up, I sure would love to hear why.

Aaron W.

07-26-2005, 01:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The Q8o hand had lots working against it (domination, number of players, bad position...), and the only thing working against this one is that it's 63o. I'm not going to say that I'm right on this one, but...

[/ QUOTE ]

Well the Q8 hand also has 3 times the pot odds. Also, we're pretty much in the same relative position in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Except that there aren't donks in the middle to screw with things.

I don't know how I feel about the Q8 anymore. After doing this calculation, I don't know how I feel about defending anything anymore. This has really messed with my mind.

Aaron W.

07-26-2005, 01:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Even against a maniac, I'm folding this flop.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming you mean preflop.

Isn't this hand what implied odds are all about? I'm making a 1 SB investment to win as many as 8 SB. Even if he fails to bet the river, 6 SB still looks pretty good to me.

Entity

07-26-2005, 01:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Even against a maniac, I'm folding this flop.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't you mean pre-flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was referring to the first one, just making sure that was clear. And yes, I'm definitely ditching 63o to a maniac.

Rob

Entity

07-26-2005, 01:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Even against a maniac, I'm folding this flop.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming you mean preflop.

Isn't this hand what implied odds are all about? I'm making a 1 SB investment to win as many as 8 SB. Even if he fails to bet the river, 6 SB still looks pretty good to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

63o isn't a good implied odds hand against a maniac. It's a good reverse implied odds hand, since you have to pay off if you flop a pair but even your pairs will often be outdrawn.

I called in a similar situation the other day with 86o, so I don't think 63o is horrible, but I'd prefer a fold.

Rob

shadow29

07-26-2005, 01:28 AM

Rob,

Que piensas sobre este (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=2949100&page=&view=&sb=5& o=&vc=1)

Aaron W.

07-26-2005, 01:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Even against a maniac, I'm folding this flop.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming you mean preflop.

Isn't this hand what implied odds are all about? I'm making a 1 SB investment to win as many as 8 SB. Even if he fails to bet the river, 6 SB still looks pretty good to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

63o isn't a good implied odds hand against a maniac. It's a good reverse implied odds hand, since you have to pay off if you flop a pair but even your pairs will often be outdrawn.

I called in a similar situation the other day with 86o, so I don't think 63o is horrible, but I'd prefer a fold.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

You can see the numbers pounded out elsewhere in this thread. Since I get outdrawn only 25% of the time when I flop a pair and he doesn't, I think I win the implied/reverse implied odds battle by a large margin.

I lose value when villain knows how to check behind with missed hands on the turn and will not call K-high on the river. That puts me in the position of being the one to force the action to get money in the pot with a very very weak hand OOP.

It's not a very huge money-making play (dependent upon both position and circumstance, so it's not something that happens very often). But it looks to be solidly on the profitable side unless I've made a mistake.

gharp

07-26-2005, 01:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
P(both of us pairing) = (6/48)*(6/47)*(36/46) = 1.2% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's pretty late and I'm not feeling like I know how to do math...but this number sounds awfully low for the amount of times that two people will both hit a pair in 5 cards. 1 time in 100? Really?

EDIT: OK, I reread it and saw that you were counting the amount of times that you'll both hit a pair on the flop. But it still seems low to me. You say in your post that you'll flop a pair 33% of the time (not sure where that came from...). Presumably it's the same for villain, so isn't the probability that you both flop a pair something like (1/3)*(1/3) = (1/9) = 11%? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Entity

07-26-2005, 02:17 AM

Jason_t came up with 8.5% for the probability of both of you flopping a pair. How did you come up with that 1.2%?

Rob

jason_t

07-26-2005, 03:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Assuming he doesn't have a pair, it's something like

P(both of us pairing) = (6/48)*(6/47)*(36/46) = 1.2% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Aaron,

This answer is not correct and it's not close. To explain why, let's use your reasonsing to compute the probability that if I hold two unpaired cards then I flop at least a pair. By your method, we'd obtain

p = (6/50) * (44/49) * (43/48) = 9.65%.

As is well-known, the correct answer is 32.4%. What's wrong with the method? The problem is that it doesn't take into consideration the ordering of the cards.

Here's a correct way to do this computation.

Let's first count the number of flops that do not contain either of my hole cards. That's simple, after removing my two hole cards from the deck and the six remaing cards that match my hole cards, there are 44 cards left in the deck. We have to choose three of them and there are (44 choose 3) ways to do that. The total number of ways to choose three cards from the deck minus my two hole cards is (50 choose 3). Now there are 3! ways to order three cards so the probability that flop contains none of my cards is [(44 choose 3) * 3!] / [(50 choose 3) * 3!] and therefore the number of flops that contains at least one of my hole cards is

1 - [(44 choose 3) * 3!] / [(50 choose 3) * 3!] = 0.324285714 (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&q=1+-+%28%2844+choose+3%29+*+3%21%29+%2F+%28%2850+choos e+3%29+*+3%21%29&btnG=Search) = 32.4%.

Now we're ready to calculate the probability that if two people hold distinct hole cards they both flop at least a pair.

Let's say that I hold AK and my opponent holds 23. What is the probability that a flop does not contain an A nor a K? That's simple, after removing the As and Ks from the deck, there are 42 cards remaining (52 - 4 - 6 = 42) and we are choosing three. Since there are in total (48 choose 3) ways to choose three cards after removing the four hole cards (AK and 23) we see that the probability that a flop doesn't contain an A nor a K is (42 choose 3) / (48 choose 3).

What is the probability that a flop does not contain a 2 nor 3? The answer is the same as our calculation above didn't depend on the fact that we were thinking only about As and Ks. So again the answer is (42 choose 3) / (48 choose 3).

Now what happens if we add (42 choose 3) / (48 choose 3) and (42 choose 3) / (48 choose 3)? Does that give the probability that a flop does not contain an A nor K and not a 2 nor a 3? No. Why not? Because we counted the flops that do not contain an A, a K, a 2 and a 3 twice. We need to compute this probability.

What is the probability that a flop does not contain an A, a K, a 2 and a 3? That's simple again as there are 36 cards left (52 - 4 - 6 - 6 = 36) and we must choose 3. Therefore, the probability that a flop does not contain an A, a K, a 2 or a 3 is (36 choose 3) / (48 choose 3)

Since we counted these flops twice, we need to remove them once and the probability that a flop does not contain an A and a K or a 2 and a 3 is (42 choose 3) / (48 choose 3) - (36 choose 3) / (48 choose 3). Hence the probability that a flop does contain an A or a K and a 2 or a 3 is

1-[(42 choose 3) / (48 choose 3) + (42 choose 3) / (48 choose 3) - (36 choose 3) / (48 choose 3)] = 0.0853376503 (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&q=1-%28%2842+choose+3%29+%2F+%2848+choose+3%29%2B%2842 +choose+3%29+%2F+%2848+choose+3%29+-+%2836+choose+3%29+%2F+%2848+choose+3%29%29&btnG=S earch) = 8.5%.

Now, one might get picky and say this is not really the answer we were after because it includes the possibility of one of us flopping two pair or trips. First, I've given you a method that would allow you to compute this for yourself (Exercise!) and second, these flops comprise such an incredibly small subset of the flops in question, 8.5% is good enough to answer any questions about the situation at hand.

Finally, fold preflop.

Good luck,

Jason.

jason_t

07-26-2005, 03:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
P(both of us pairing) = (6/48)*(6/47)*(36/46) = 1.2% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's pretty late and I'm not feeling like I know how to do math...but this number sounds awfully low for the amount of times that two people will both hit a pair in 5 cards. 1 time in 100? Really?

EDIT: OK, I reread it and saw that you were counting the amount of times that you'll both hit a pair on the flop. But it still seems low to me. You say in your post that you'll flop a pair 33% of the time (not sure where that came from...). Presumably it's the same for villain, so isn't the probability that you both flop a pair something like (1/3)*(1/3) = (1/9) = 11%? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi gharp,

Your intuition is correct: 1/100 is way too low. I replied to Aaron and gave what I believe is the correct answer to this problem.

Regarding your approximation

(1/3) * (1/3) = .111 = 11.1%

I want to say that this answer gives us a ballpark figure for any exact calculation. I arrived at 8.5% as the exact answer. Once we have the approximation 11.1%, do we expect the exact answer to be higher or lower? The answer is that we expect the exact answer to be lower than 11.1%. Even if the probability for one player to flop at least a pair were exactly 1/3 (it's more precisely 32.4% so a better approximation is 32.4% * 32.4% = 10.5%) the problem with the calculation 1/3 * 1/3 is that it assumes the events (I flop a pair) and (villain flops a pair) are independent; they aren't. Therefore, the approximation is overcounting certain cases and we expect the true answer to be lower.

Good luck,

Jason.

Aaron W.

07-26-2005, 10:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Assuming he doesn't have a pair, it's something like

P(both of us pairing) = (6/48)*(6/47)*(36/46) = 1.2% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Aaron,

This answer is not correct and it's not close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dang it! /images/graemlins/crazy.gif Mistakes happen. Thanks for catching it.

(Edited out some garbage because I can't use my calculator properly.) Let me do it first to the "I draw a pair" computation using my metod (correctly!). Here is your answer for reference:

[ QUOTE ]
1 - [(44 choose 3) * 3!] / [(50 choose 3) * 3!] = 0.324285714 = 32.4%.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not going to count the probability, I'm just going to count the flops. How many flops bring me a pair? When I count "flops", I count all three cards as a unit, so I don't care about the order (I'll deal with order in a moment). What do I need to see in my flop? I need to see at least one good card for me (there are 6 of these) and enough bad cards to fill in the gaps. How many combinations of these are there?

1 good, 2 bad: 6 * 44*43/2 = 5676
2 good, 1 bad: 6*5/2 * 44 = 660
3 good, 0 bad: 6*5*4/6 = 20
Total good flops: 6356
Total flops: 50*49*48/6 = 19600
Probability: 6356/19600 = .324285714

But now onto the one that's wrong. For concreteness, take villain's hand to be AK and my hand to be the lovely 63o. Also, the way you have it set up, I need to count two pair/trips hands in my enumeration:

1 me, 1 him, 1 brick: 6 * 6 * 6 = 1296
2 me, 1 him: 6*5/2 * 6 = 90
1 me, 2 him: 6 * 6*5/2 = 90
Total "good" flops: 1476
Total flops: 48*47*46/6 = 17296
Probability: 1476/17296 = .08533765

[ QUOTE ]
1-[(42 choose 3) / (48 choose 3) + (42 choose 3) / (48 choose 3) - (36 choose 3) / (48 choose 3)] = 0.0853376503 = 8.5%.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like inclusion/exclusion. For things like this, I think it's more cumbersome. Counting is straightforward... as long as you count properly.

And since it was an exericse, I'll get the probability without the two pair/trips possibilities (see how easy it is whne you just count? /images/graemlins/grin.gif)

1296/17296 = 7.5%.

And while I'm at it, I've got to fix my error and check out the EV calculation again:

67% of the time, I fold on the flop for -1 SB.
7.5% of the time, we both flop a pair and I call down to lose 6 SB.
25.5% of the time, 24% of the time I get outdrawn after flopping my pair and lose 6 SB.
25.5% of the time, 76% of the time I hold up and win 8 SB.

EV = (.67)*(-1) + (.075)*(-6) + (.255*.24)*(-6) + (.255*.76)*(8)
= -.67 - .45 - .367 + 1.55
= .063

I still win, but not nearly as much. Ugh. Now I need to go fast because now I'm running late.

Entity

07-26-2005, 10:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Assuming he doesn't have a pair, it's something like

P(both of us pairing) = (6/48)*(6/47)*(36/46) = 1.2% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Aaron,

This answer is not correct and it's not close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dang it! /images/graemlins/crazy.gif Mistakes happen. Thanks for catching it.

(Edited out some garbage because I can't use my calculator properly.) Let me do it first to the "I draw a pair" computation using my metod (correctly!). Here is your answer for reference:

[ QUOTE ]
1 - [(44 choose 3) * 3!] / [(50 choose 3) * 3!] = 0.324285714 = 32.4%.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not going to count the probability, I'm just going to count the flops. How many flops bring me a pair? When I count "flops", I count all three cards as a unit, so I don't care about the order (I'll deal with order in a moment). What do I need to see in my flop? I need to see at least one good card for me (there are 6 of these) and enough bad cards to fill in the gaps. How many combinations of these are there?

1 good, 2 bad: 6 * 44*43/2 = 5676
2 good, 1 bad: 6*5/2 * 44 = 660
3 good, 0 bad: 6*5*4/6 = 20
Total good flops: 6356
Total flops: 50*49*48/6 = 19600
Probability: 6356/19600 = .324285714

But now onto the one that's wrong. For concreteness, take villain's hand to be AK and my hand to be the lovely 63o. Also, the way you have it set up, I need to count two pair/trips hands in my enumeration:

1 me, 1 him, 1 brick: 6 * 6 * 6 = 1296
2 me, 1 him: 6*5/2 * 6 = 90
1 me, 2 him: 6 * 6*5/2 = 90
Total "good" flops: 1476
Total flops: 48*47*46/6 = 17296
Probability: 1476/17296 = .08533765

[ QUOTE ]
1-[(42 choose 3) / (48 choose 3) + (42 choose 3) / (48 choose 3) - (36 choose 3) / (48 choose 3)] = 0.0853376503 = 8.5%.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like inclusion/exclusion. For things like this, I think it's more cumbersome. Counting is straightforward... as long as you count properly.

And since it was an exericse, I'll get the probability without the two pair/trips possibilities (see how easy it is whne you just count? /images/graemlins/grin.gif)

1296/17296 = 7.5%.

And while I'm at it, I've got to fix my error and check out the EV calculation again:

67% of the time, I fold on the flop for -1 SB.
7.5% of the time, we both flop a pair and I call down to lose 6 SB.
25.5% of the time, 24% of the time I get outdrawn after flopping my pair and lose 6 SB.
25.5% of the time, 76% of the time I hold up and win 8 SB.

EV = (.67)*(-1) + (.075)*(-6) + (.255*.24)*(-6) + (.255*.76)*(8)
= -.67 - .45 - .367 + 1.55
= .063

I still win, but not nearly as much. Ugh. Now I need to go fast because now I'm running late.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aaron,

Now you need to factor in the times you're dominated or the times he holds a pocket pair preflop. When he's raising such a wide variety of hands this is going to happen a lot more often than if he was just raising a standard variety of hands (where 63o would be less likely to be dominated).

Rob

imported_The Vibesman

07-26-2005, 10:44 AM

Seems like a really weak hand to call with even if villian is that crazy. But if you have decided to defend with any two, I think the rest of it is fine.

Aaron W.

07-26-2005, 06:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Aaron,

Now you need to factor in the times you're dominated or the times he holds a pocket pair preflop. When he's raising such a wide variety of hands this is going to happen a lot more often than if he was just raising a standard variety of hands (where 63o would be less likely to be dominated).

Rob

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No thanks. I'll concede at this point. I suspect it's going to be slightly -EV.

I expect to only be dominated by A3 and A6 (if you include K6, you get something in the high 30s PFR by the time you count everything). A 30 PFR is about 400 hands. So this is 12/400 = 3% of the time.

Pocket pairs AA-77 will show up 48/400 = 12% of the time.

So 85% of the time, I have a very minor +EV and 15% of the time I'm going to have a small (but not insignificant) -EV. If the -EV value is about 5.5 times larger than the +EV value, then it's going to be neutral EV. That's something like -.35 SB against an overpair or while dominated. Reverse implied odds hurt me big here, so I don't think I can overcome the 5.5:1 underdog against a pocket pair and the 2:1 underdog against domination.