Playing QQ against a KKX flop

[Student Caine]

Ok all, I ran into a hand last night and I am wondering if I made a good decision (looking at it from a long term +EV solution).

This was a live action hand, typical 3/6, this game has 5 LPP’s (all in this pot) – the other players are decent (1 LAG, 1 LPA, and a 1 TAG), but they are not in this pot:


Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/club.gifQ/images/graemlins/spade.gif


Pre-Flop:
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button raises, SB calls, BB (Hero) re-raises, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls

At this point I know that I have the best hand. The original raiser would have re-raised if he had AA or KK. I put him on AKo or AQo, *maybe* AKs (but I think he would have capped with AKs).


Flop: K/images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/images/graemlins/spade.gif6/images/graemlins/club.gif
Players: 6
Pot Size: $54 (18 Small Bets)
SB Checks, BB (Hero) Checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, CO bets, Button raises, SB calls, BB (Hero) folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, CO calls

With this many callers I thought for sure that someone had a K, specifically I figured that my AKo read on the button was good. Please note that both UTG+1 and CO telegraphed their intended actions each hand by holding either their chips or their cards – in this instance they both held their chips so I was 90% sure they would call (if not 3-bet). The number of players definitely concerned me here, so I dropped.

Turn: 10/images/graemlins/heart.gif
Players: 4
Pot Size: $78 (13 Big Bets)
All check to Button who bets, SB Folds, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

River: 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif
Players: 3
Pot Size: $96 (16 Big Bets)
All check to Button who bets, UTG+1 calls, CO calls

Final Pot: $114 (19 Big Bets)

Results:
Will follow

So was this a good drop? If not, what should I do on the Flop - Bet, Check-Call, or Check-Raise?

I will post results as well as my thoughts later.

[pauliewalnuts]

I'd lead out the flop for sure. And if someone raised, depending on my read, I'd either 3bet or call and see what the turn brings. I wouldnt fold the flop unless someone turned over a king or the old woman raised for the first time in two hours.

[Student Caine]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd lead out the flop for sure. And if someone raised, depending on my read, I'd either 3bet or call and see what the turn brings. I wouldnt fold the flop unless someone turned over a king or the old woman raised for the first time in two hours.

[/ QUOTE ]

So which do you think is better - 3 betting or just calling?

The button raised when CO bet, so we can safely assume that he would have raised if I had bet from the BB.

[Student Caine]

Please note that my thoughts about this hand are totally independent from the actual result. Looking back on the hand now, I think that my flop fold was a poor decision for the following reasons:

At the time that I folded I was calling 2 small bets. Assuming that I would have had to call a big bet on both the turn and river, I would in essence be putting in 3 Big Bets ($18) to get to the showdown. Based upon the fact that the final pot was $114, I would have been getting slightly better than 6:1 odds (if I had to predict how many players would have folded each round I would have actually guessed that the total pot in the end would have been $102 as I figured that UTG+1 would fold to a turn bet, CO was staying put as he had something based upon the fact that he led the flop). According to Lee Jones, if two cards hit the board (in this case the K’s), there is a 40% chance that someone at the table does not have another K. So based upon pure math, I was a 3:2 dog that someone had a K, while the pot would be laying me ~6:1 odds at the end.

Does anyone disagree with this line of thinking? Am I missing some other important points that would not make this a +EV situation? Should I be factoring in that someone could have possibly drawn to an Ace, runner-runner straight, or runner-runner flush?

Also, what do you think about me leading the flop? I did not bet the flop as I figured that it would surely draw a raise that would not necessarily convince me that I was up against a King.

How about check-raising the flop (3-betting)? I am not sure if 3-betting would have thinned the field, but I think it would have given me an idea if the button really held AKo as he would surely cap if he did (though it would not give me a clear idea if someone held KX). Also, it would have really punished anyone trying to hit an Ace or a runner-runner straight/flush. I decided not to 3 bet as I did not want to lay out the money when I was so sure I was beaten – but looking back even if the betting capped with 3 other players I would have been looking at ~7:1 odds.

[pauliewalnuts]

You said he was a LPP, but that still doesnt mean he has a king. People dio strange things on paired boards. I'd 3bet here after he raised. If he capped, I'd check/fold the turn UI. If he called the 3bet, I'd lead out turn and river planning to fold to a raise.

[Student Caine]

[ QUOTE ]
You said he was a LPP, but that still doesnt mean he has a king. People dio strange things on paired boards. I'd 3bet here after he raised. If he capped, I'd check/fold the turn UI. If he called the 3bet, I'd lead out turn and river planning to fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm, so you would consider folding with the pot as large as it is?

[davet]

This is sort of a tough one, but I will say that I don't agree with Lee Jones on many things.

I would lead on the flop, simply to gain information, if the LPP's are raising for the first time in hours, you know you are beaten, and you can release your hand. But if the LPPs are unpredictable, raising on the flop will accomplish a few things. But the most important thing is that you may be taken a bit more seriously, and they would be more inclined to call you, or fold, unless they had an ace, or connected with the board. My own observations have shown that most people in the lower limits like to slowplay nut trips, so it may be more likely that they missed, but want to bluff, a common thing in 3/6.

A good option to note is that you do have good enough pot equity to continue, If we must use Lee Jone's thoughts, you can safely determine that you will have the best hand more than forty percent of the time, and it is safe to play this hand passively on the turn and river.

[The Goober]

With the pot this big, I'm not giving it up w/o a fight. I would assume I have the best hand on the flop and bet out. LP types often use simplistic hand reading, so I'd tell them I have a K (figuratively). Not that I expect anyone to fold anything reasonable, but it will make them act more predictably. I've noticed some passive players will really over-value PPs and will also act strangely with a paired board. When you check, you intice them to get nutty and put in a situation where you might make a bad fold.

If I bet out the flop and it was called to button, who raises, I'd definately call b/c at this point you are getting odds to catch a Q. Sometimes I'd fold the turn u/i, sometimes I would call down - depending on my read and how everyone else reacts. I think some percentage of the time you'll see the turn get checked through as well - I keep running into players who make free card plays with w/o a real draw.

[SeaEagle]

First off, this flop creates a standard Way ahead/Way behind situation. Normally, WA/WB applies when there's only 2 people, but this is such a clear cut flop that the principles probably still apply. In a WA/WB, you want to call bets on the flop and turn and generally bet out the river and fold to a raise.

Normally, I'd check/call the flop since a whiff isn't especially bad for you (only an A or a 6 are bad for you). A bet doesn't particularly buy you anything since only a K or a pair is calling you (no draws) and, statistically speaking, probably no one else has a pair.

However...you have reads that at least 2 people are going to play. It's unlikely anybody's going to raise the flop with a king (they'll wait for the turn) so you might want to bet and possibly collect a bet or two from people drawing nearly dead. If you do get raised, you can revert back to WA/WB strategy.

[SeaEagle]

I'm sorry. I didn't read the hand well.

When it comes back 2 to you:
If you *know* 2 people are going to call the raise then I think it's a good fold. This flop is just too dry for much besides Ks to be playing.

Incidentally, did you put button on a K? There are some people who are so excited with a huge hand they can't wait to blow everybody off the pot. But almost everybody is going to slowplay a K here and I'm guessing he's got a pair of Js or below.

[ArturiusX]

[ QUOTE ]

I would lead on the flop, simply to gain information,

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the common theme among all new posters; they always raise/bet for information. This will cost you a lot of chips.

[SeaEagle]

Heh. Especially since the only reasonable information available is "I'm drawing nearly dead, I fold" or "You're drawing nearly dead, I call/raise". I don't think I want to spend a bet to find out either of those.

[Student Caine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I would lead on the flop, simply to gain information,

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the common theme among all new posters; they always raise/bet for information. This will cost you a lot of chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Leading out to gain information is definitely something I would do here in NL, but in Limit I think that a leading bet here is not really going to gain me any information. If I have 5 callers I still know nothing. If I get raised all I know is that someone is representing a King, but even LPP's would do that with the pot so large and so many callers. The real raising here will come when the bets get big (and I chose not to stick around for that).

Honestly, I like 3-betting here better than I like leading out. This has the potential to possibly thin the field if there are players behind me who have to call 3 SB's (or even 2) and it will charge any draws. Also, if the betting gets capped here I am pretty sure who has the K. I am not advocating 3-betting here (seeing as how I folded), but I am saying that if I have a choice to lead here or 3-bet I would 3-bet. Is this a good line or am I simply building on an already huge pot?

The fact that my position stinks definitely does not help me with this hand where all I am trying to do is get to the showdown as cheaply as possible.

[callmedonnie]

I lead and see what the action after that is. How many callers? No raises? Most of the time, your hand is no good though.