A9o misses flop, continues anyways

[Stork]

2/4 running 4 handed on pokerworld.com. No reads aside from being typical 2/4 players.

UTG folds and I raise on the button with As9d. Both blinds call. The flop comes out Qh 8s 2h. SB bets, BB calls, I call.

Turn card is the 5d. Checked to me and I bet.
--

The flop call is kind of loose, but I made it because I could still have the best hand, and my pair outs are worth something. When SB bet out on the flop, I figured his most likely hand to be a flush draw or a bluff, just because I see this move all the time at this level and usually it doesn't represent a made hand. When BB calls, I think his most likely hands are an 8, followed closely by a straight draw, followed closely by an ace high, with the distant possibility of a monster.

When SB checks the turn, that pretty much confirms my read on him. When BB checks, a straight draw or an ace becomes more likely, since most players would bet a pair in fear of the turn getting checked through, especially since I wasn't the aggressor last round. So by the time it is checked to me I figure the pot is big enough and my hand is decent enough to justify a bet.

Yes? No?

[RunDownHouse]

OK.

If called, what do you do on the river if UI and 1) checked to, or 2) bet into?

What if you hit a 9 and are led into?

[Stork]

Depends how many and which opponent(s) are left, and also on what the river card is since nothing is really a blank on this board, and if it is a 9 depends whether it is a heart or not so it is tough to answer for all scenarios.

On this hand though I'm more interested in the flop/turn play than the river.

[RunDownHouse]

Although I understand your reasoning, I don't think its as iron-clad as you make it sound. I agree that it looks like SB is on a draw, but there's enough passive, weak players out there that he could have a mid pair or have paired the flop. Likewise, I think its more likely that BB has paired than you make it sound.

That aside, I think a flop raise is best. It gets you the initiative back, it allows you to see a river for free most of the time, and it puts pressure on those draws. Sometimes I float, but I don't think this is the time for it. You don't have anything except one possibly dirty over; if I float, I like to have more of a draw/chance of being best than that.

Having just called, I like the turn bet. If they're drawing, they'll pay, and if you're donked on the river when UI its a pretty easy fold. If not, you can check behind. If you hit a 9, especially the 9h, it will suck and you'll just have to decide if he's value betting his 8 or one of those draws he's on.

But really, I think a lot of players in this game in the BB's position will check a pair here. There's no way you get to showdown without putting another bet in, however, so I like putting that bet in on the turn more than the river. I like raising the flop best, though.

[Stork]

Didn't mean to make my reads sound iron-clad, I was just putting them on most likely hands.

Flop raise is a definite possibility. I didn't for a couple reasons. The most important reason was that I felt by just calling, the turn action would give me alot of information, whereas if I raised I wouldn't find out much. Also, what would I do on the turn if I raised the flop? If I take a freebie I will get bet into on the river and have a tough decision, but if I bet there is still a decent chance of getting raised since raising the flop will make it alot easier for one of the other two to check a made hand to me.

Still though you do make a point for raising the flop and I can't say which line is better.

RESULTS:
SB folded to my bet. BB raised and I folded.

[Womble]

Am I the only one who folds this flop? I dont think you have outs to call anespecially not overcall. Heads up I may raise for a free card but I dont know

[Poldi]

I fold this on the flop (you think its most likely that SB is on a draw, so you have like 4 clean outs..) and I dont bet this turn unless I think there is a big chance both players might fold (at this limit they usually call too much so I dont see that happening here).
It just puts me on a bad spot at the river. If the draw doesnt come in, you dont improve and SB leads anyways you have a tough decision to make.