Expected ROI for O8 11s SNG

[BettyBoopAA]

What is a reasonable ROI goal for a strong player for playing 11s O8 SNG on Party?

[axeshigh]

Anything positive is good. 20%+ is very good. See FAQ.

[MegaBet]

sigh...

[Slim Pickens]

The FAQ implies NL Texas Holdem. For O8, it's probably about the same per tournament, but less per hour since they take longer to play. O8 is not well suited to a fast blind structure tournament, but this is offset by the generally awful play.

[BettyBoopAA]

I thought it would be higher than NLHE since the play at this level is very bad. I'll post my results when I get a bigger sample size.

[Slim Pickens]

The play is very bad, but it's a rough go in a tournament unless you happen to hit that perfect 1-in-200 type hand in Level 4 when the stakes are high enough to collect a lot of chips but you still have enough opponents left to pay you off and quadruple up. You have to subsist on limit blind steals, which are much harder and less frequently realized than in NL.

I've played about 35 with an ROI of +1%.

[BettyBoopAA]

thanks for the feedback. A friend of mine thinks I can hit 50% ROI playing $11s O/8. So I am going to play 500 SNG. My experience so far is the play is so bad I can hit a big hand at any level. People capping the betting on the turn drawing dead, etc.
In my first 12 SNG(I know the sample is way too small), My ROI is over 100%, I've won 5 out 12 and ITM 67% of the time and my cards have been average. I know these results won't be as great in the future but I think 50% might be achieveable.
My friends only concern was my getting bored grinding it out in $11 SNG.

[ace_in_the_hole]

I'd would be very impressive if you did 500 at 20% or more. Good Luck.

[Nicholasp27]

in my first 50 10/1 nlhe sngs, i had over 100% roi, but that's variance for u and i don't expect to hit 50% roi (i don't think anybody can in sngs...they say 40% is sustainable long term) in the long-term...

u can prolly hope to attain what the concensus sustainable roi is for that game, which is prolly closer to the 40% of nlhe, tho i'm no o8 expert, so maybe it's higher...but 12 or 50 or 250 games doesn't really indicate what your actual roi is

[Slim Pickens]

Honestly, if you get anywhere close to 50% long-term playing the O8 11's, you're wasting your time. That's part of the reason the argument about the max attainable NLHE ROI at the 11's is unresolved, and usually treated in a highly theoretical manner. No one with the skill to beat the 11's for a huge ROI won't be able to make tons more money by moving up to the 33's or 109's, even if their drops. If you are that good, why play that many tournaments at such a low level when it's generally accepted that the play stinks at all levels? The only reasonable answer might be bankroll, in which case you're better served by building a bankroll in a lower-variance/faster return game like NLHE, and switching over to O8 as your bankroll permits you to play the higher levels. I agree you will get bored playing 500 11's.

What makes your friend think you're so good? I'd love to see more O8 STT discussion here because the O8 forum doesn't have the first clue about STT play.

SlimP

[BettyBoopAA]

Thanks Slim for your response.
I play mostly B&M NL tourney, 0/8 tourney(mostly $200-500 level) and 0/8 ring games. I play more NL because there's more money to be made there. I have done very well in 0/8 tourneys and when I feel like making some easy money, I play 0/8 ring games.
I do play some online MTT NL tourneys on Stars as well as 08 MTT.
The structure of the Party o8 SNG limit tourneys is horrible so to win with this structure you need to play well and have a table of mostly bad players (who mostly don't know they're bad), this is present at 11s, it is much less prevalent at 33s. There is a big school of fish playing the 11s.
I think playing 08 SNG at the $11 has less variance than NL.
My goal is to grind out $10,000 in profit online in the next 12 months and I think this maybe the easiest lowest risk way to do it. I'll update you on my progress.

[Slim Pickens]

thread on SD per tournament (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1479432&page=&view=&sb=5& o=&vc=1)

I wasn't clear last time when I was talking about variance in the different games, and I probably overstated the effect. My opinion is Party-structure O8 SNG's will have a higher varaince than NLHE for two reasons:

1) You will win more. You will have more 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place finishes because the play is so bad and that will lead to a slightly higher mathematical SD. You won't care because you'll be winning more.

2) Your 1st/2nd/3rd distribution will be different because you'll be able to exploit the bubble even more effectively than in NLHE because the play is so bad. Most NLHE players assume a fairly flat 1/2/3 distribution over time, but I doubt this holds true in O8, where if a good player does hit a big hand at the right time, it's a free pass to a win.

I was probably wrong in suggesting building bankroll with NLHE because of the lower variance. If you're playing $200-500 live tournaments, you probably have the bankroll to handle the 33's or 109's. Of course, I'm talking out of my ass not having payed [any O8 above the 11's or 0.5/1 ring. I'm just projecting my NLHE progession onto O8.