07-25-2005, 06:34 PM
.50/1.00 limit hold'em, 10 handed, hero is in middle position with K /images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif
Preflop:
3 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold,<font color="red">Hero calls</font>, CO calls, button calls, SB calls, BB raises, MP1 calls, <font color="red">Hero calls</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls
Flop: (12 smalls bets) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif
SB checks, BB bets, MP1 calls, <font color="red">Hero calls</font>,CO folds, Button calls, SB calls
Turn: (8.5 big bets) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif
SB checks, BB bets, MP1 calls, <font color="red">Hero calls </font>, Button calls, SB calls.
River: (13.5 big bets) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif
SB checks, BB bets, MP1 calls, Hero folds, Button folds, SB calls
Final Pot: 16.5 BB
At the time this call seemed like a no brainer. On the flop there was 14 smalls bets in the pot and it would only cost me one more to call. With 10.75:1 to hit on the turn, it seemed like an easy call, especially when you factor in that I have two overcards. In retrospect though I think I may have overestimated my outs. In a five way pot like this one with a two flush on the board, I'd estimate that the flush draw is out there at least half the time, so there's a very good chance that the 10 of hearts could be dead to me. This means that I have 3.5 outs instead of 4. Also I would say about half the time, there's another Jack out there, so I'm drawing to a split pot a good percentage of the time. So instead of having 4 outs to a 14 SB pot, I have 3.5 to a 7 SB pot. The overcard outs aren't great either, as the Jack puts a four straight on the board, and someone may already have a smaller pair with a King kicker, in which case I would be reverse dominated. Also with the whole two flush on board, I figure my overcards may be worth only about 2 outs. So now I have 5.5 outs in a 7 SB pot, meaning I'm about 8.5 to 1 to hit on the turn. With implied odds and the likelyhood of overcallers behind me padding the pot, I guess I can make the call on the flop.
The turn is a similar deal, although I'm getting slightly worse odds.
I don't know what I'm saying anymore, so i'm going to stop rambling, and let someone else look at this. Am I overthinking an easy call, or are my concerns legit?
Preflop:
3 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold,<font color="red">Hero calls</font>, CO calls, button calls, SB calls, BB raises, MP1 calls, <font color="red">Hero calls</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls
Flop: (12 smalls bets) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif
SB checks, BB bets, MP1 calls, <font color="red">Hero calls</font>,CO folds, Button calls, SB calls
Turn: (8.5 big bets) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif
SB checks, BB bets, MP1 calls, <font color="red">Hero calls </font>, Button calls, SB calls.
River: (13.5 big bets) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif
SB checks, BB bets, MP1 calls, Hero folds, Button folds, SB calls
Final Pot: 16.5 BB
At the time this call seemed like a no brainer. On the flop there was 14 smalls bets in the pot and it would only cost me one more to call. With 10.75:1 to hit on the turn, it seemed like an easy call, especially when you factor in that I have two overcards. In retrospect though I think I may have overestimated my outs. In a five way pot like this one with a two flush on the board, I'd estimate that the flush draw is out there at least half the time, so there's a very good chance that the 10 of hearts could be dead to me. This means that I have 3.5 outs instead of 4. Also I would say about half the time, there's another Jack out there, so I'm drawing to a split pot a good percentage of the time. So instead of having 4 outs to a 14 SB pot, I have 3.5 to a 7 SB pot. The overcard outs aren't great either, as the Jack puts a four straight on the board, and someone may already have a smaller pair with a King kicker, in which case I would be reverse dominated. Also with the whole two flush on board, I figure my overcards may be worth only about 2 outs. So now I have 5.5 outs in a 7 SB pot, meaning I'm about 8.5 to 1 to hit on the turn. With implied odds and the likelyhood of overcallers behind me padding the pot, I guess I can make the call on the flop.
The turn is a similar deal, although I'm getting slightly worse odds.
I don't know what I'm saying anymore, so i'm going to stop rambling, and let someone else look at this. Am I overthinking an easy call, or are my concerns legit?