JTo against a feeder

[sublime]

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Villian is 47/13/.43 after like 40 hands.

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: (5.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero?

[baronzeus]

You're getting 8 to 1, but I think calling here might be EV neutral since he might raise 2 pair on rare occasions.

[sammy_g]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian is 47/13/.43 after like 40 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
not a huge number of hands, but against this opponent, i think i fold.

[irishpint]

i get the impression i call down too much, because i'm unable to find a fold here (or many other river situations where somehow people manage to fold good hands to a river bet in a large pot).

[Alobar]

yuck, I hate folding 2 pair, but that is one ugly river card and he has a seriously low post flop AF. Tho it is only after 40 hands, so its mostly meaningless. Its also 10/20 where river checkraise bluffs with nothing happen pretty frequently (least thats how it seems). I dunno, if you have ZERO read on the guy, it might be worth taking a peek, if you plan on sitting at this table for a while. But I think the call is -EV

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villian is 47/13/.43 after like 40 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
not a huge number of hands, but against this opponent, i think i fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think players who hit one end of the spectrum rather quickly, tend to stay there. anyone agree/disagree? its the dudes who hover in LAG/Rock range that end up surprising you after getting a larger sample size.

[JrJordan]

Awful river card. If the only read you have is those stats, I need to call it getting 8.25:1. With any sort of decent read that could back up the ultra passive stats, I could find a fold, but not vs. a relative unknown.

[Trix]

Call, T8,T7, weird bluff. Odds are good enough.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
Call, T8,T7, weird bluff. Odds are good enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

given how scary that board is, I dont think your typical passive opponent is usually checkraising junk 2 pairs here. I think they'd bet out, or just call. I think its either a total bluff or the 9 or flush.

[Cancuk]

calls

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
Call, T8,T7, weird bluff. Odds are good enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

which is what i first thought, then stopped for a second, and said to meself. "self, passive players are pussys. would he be check raising those hands here?"

and I said "no"

and folded. i usually pay off like a hairy ATM machine. i am trying to get better at poker. figured it was about time my skill level caught up with my EGO.

[Trix]

I dont think 40 hands worth of stats is enough to make this fold in a 4-handed game. Now had you been playing with him for those 40 hands and seen him play weakly, then I would like it more.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ figured it was about time my skill level caught up with my EGO.

[/ QUOTE ]

party doesnt spread a 200/400 game /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
Its also 10/20 where river checkraise bluffs with nothing happen pretty frequently (least thats how it seems).

[/ QUOTE ]
But it's hard to see what hand this guy could have the would qualify as "nothing" here. On a board with missed draws, you figure maybe he has a busted draw and is making a desparate bluff. Guys with low AFs surprise me by doing that sometimes. But every draw got there. So if he has nothing, it means that he has check-called with nothing on the flop and turn and then went for a c/r bluff on the river, which is a really unlikely scenario.

[poker-penguin]

I would probably have check called here. That's just a godawful river card, and getting check raised would make me cry (I call it, but don't want to have to make that decision).

I think the range of hands he might call you with that you beat is smaller than the range of hands he might be trying a CR with. I just don't see the river bet as having much, if any, positive value.

But I'm a moran so if I'm right, it's probably by accident.

[sammy_g]

[ QUOTE ]
I would probably have check called here.

[/ QUOTE ]
hero has position.

[ QUOTE ]
That's just a godawful river card, and getting check raised would make me cry (I call it, but don't want to have to make that decision).

[/ QUOTE ]
not wanting to make a tough decision doesn't seem like a good reason to check.

[ QUOTE ]
I think the range of hands he might call you with that you beat is smaller than the range of hands he might be trying a CR with.

[/ QUOTE ]
i just don't think this is true against a very loose/passive player.

[arkady]

Not a typical preflop raise for me, but to each his own.

If you can let go of the hand with out dwelling on it, then get rid of it. This is probably a good bet/fold situation against a presumably passive opponent.

[Stack]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Call, T8,T7, weird bluff. Odds are good enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

given how scary that board is, I dont think your typical passive opponent is usually checkraising junk 2 pairs here. I think they'd bet out, or just call. I think its either a total bluff or the 9 or flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given how scary the board is I think that opponent would usually bet any hand that he doesn't want to get checked through. The c/r is shady on this board, and it's also the ONLY way to get us off the best hand if he is thinking. I'm not saying that calling is +EV (I don't know), but I can't fold this.