PP 50-100 JJ hand.

[Turning Stone Pro]

JJ in the BB. folded to button (28/7/1) who raises, I three bet, BB calls two cold. 3 to the flop.

flop is K67, rainbow. I bet, BB folds, button calls.

Turn is 7s, puts two spades on board. I bet, button calls.

River is 3s. My move?

Thanks!

TSP

[Fianchetto]

I'm assuming you meant that you are in the SB.

I think you have a value bet there, seems like you would have heard from a king by now, and you will get called by 88/99/TT, maybe even a hand like AQ. Have you ever seen him go passive with top pair before? He is not super aggressive, so I guess he could conceivably have a weak king, but I think you will get called by a lot of weaker pairs, and maybe ace high, and since you will be calling a bet anyway I'd say bet it.

The small pfr% and low AF is kind of a scare to me.
Should I Bet?
I'd consider what I can beat that will call a bet: 88, 99, TT, some extra random hand that is always a chance to be out there like 55.
What can't I beat: AK, KQ, KJ, QQ, and some random hand which could be out there (you mention running spades, so I'll assume that a spade was on the flop as well) like AJs or KT.

Given this, I don't think I'd bet. The AF and PFR% are low enough that your opponent could be calling down with KJ or KQ.

[gonores]

Bet, watch his pocket pair call you, profit!

Edit: Oh yeah...fold to a raise. That part's easy.

[etizzle]

I like bet-fold here. He has 3 possible holdings: a K, A high, or a middle pair. If he had a K I believe we would've heard from it by now, but he may be waiting til the river to raise it. If we are raised on the river I think we have an easy fold, as I dont see what hand he could be calling down and then bluffing the river with.

I think you will get called a lot here with A high here, and all of the middle pairs will look you up.

[DpR]

you don't get bluff raised here on that river? Happened to me 3 times last night, by reasonable (stats wise) players. It normally is not that common, but I don't think we can fold to a river raise here.

[etizzle]

what hand bluff raises?

[gonores]

You're talking about a 3.5BB bluff line with from a guy with an aggression factor of 1. Ain't happening

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
You're talking about a 3.5BB bluff line with from a guy with an aggression factor of 1. Ain't happening

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't a player with a low aggression factor be more likely to bluff raise on the river that one with a high one? A really aggressive player would not expect to get a lot of respect and would not expect a bluff to work, while a rock could expect the river raise bluff to work now and then.

[Steve Giufre]

Its defintely a bet. There are just way too many hands he will call with. He is never checking a better hand behind, and it doesnt seem like the best situation to induce a bluff. As far as paying off a raise I really think you can flip a coin.

[highlife]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're talking about a 3.5BB bluff line with from a guy with an aggression factor of 1. Ain't happening

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't a player with a low aggression factor be more likely to bluff raise on the river that one with a high one? A really aggressive player would not expect to get a lot of respect and would not expect a bluff to work, while a rock could expect the river raise bluff to work now and then.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great point.

Along with that, wouldn't the villian to be more likely to bluff a smallish pot than a large one, expecting hero to be more likely to fold?

[DanZ]

I think it makes big difference if you have the Js or not. I will spell out my read of his hand:

small pair lower than jacks -

very unlikely. This hand will usually, but not always, raise the turn in this spot, assuming the opponent is competent and not overly fearful of your 3 bet. He does not have much evidence you have a king, and should be delighted to make you fold AJ/QJ/AQ.

a flush -
if he turned backdoor spades, he will also raise a lot. However, the bigger these are - like AsJs, or AsQs, and perhaps AsTs, may not raise, as they can now be used as bluff catchers on the river. A weaker spade draw would almost have to raise and try to win the pot.

QQ - almost identical to a king, especially a weak one. No real compulsion to make opponent fold on an earlier street, only modest prospects of a true value raise. This is a classic slowplay spot.

JJ - very unlikely, but possible. Almost as good a slowplay as QQ, but not quite.

any king - perfectly reasonable to keep calling along with this hand at least until the end. where a raise may be in order.

bigger hand - almost certainly raises earlier, but possible

ace high - well, not so sure anything worse than AQ would stick around, and AJ is not all that likely. this doesn't seem to fit very well, similar to 88, I would expect a big ace to raise earlier and not risk a devastating free card if it will be played for the best hand.

- straight draw This is pretty likely also. a flopped open ender may have raised, but not necessarily. top end gutshot might play meekly also.


back to our decision. I am not seeingh a lot of hands that will call a bet here but not bet themselves. I think an AQ may bet, as would a tiny pair most of the time (though we discounted this). The busted straight draw would almost certainly bet, and not knowing the opponent well, I'd be hesitant to fold to a raise.

So, I'd check on the end, and virtually always call.

[ike]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're talking about a 3.5BB bluff line with from a guy with an aggression factor of 1. Ain't happening

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't a player with a low aggression factor be more likely to bluff raise on the river that one with a high one? A really aggressive player would not expect to get a lot of respect and would not expect a bluff to work, while a rock could expect the river raise bluff to work now and then.

[/ QUOTE ]

from the OP "folded to button (28/7/1)"
this guy is not a rock, he's a loose passive donator. change the numbers to something like 16/11/1.5 and i think its a valid concern that this guy thinks he can get away with river bluffs, but the 28/7/1 doesn't think much at all nevermind on this level.

[DcifrThs]

very easy bet.

-Barron

[DeeJ]

check-call cuz i'm a wuss /images/graemlins/blush.gif ?

edit: I see dcifr says it's a very easy bet well the number of times he has a K he's not folding it and he could be calling down the flush (occasionally)... depends on the player but if he's passive he could easily have the flush draw or a weak King. Could bet & fold to a raise also /images/graemlins/smile.gif