Why does no one fold to turn raises?

[Padawan Learner]

Party, 5/10 full handed.

UTG (seemed fairly tight and reasonable in the 20 or so hands I have played with them) open limps, I raise with K /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif from ep, folded to the BB who calls, as does UTG.

3 to the flop for 6sb.. T /images/graemlins/heart.gif6 /images/graemlins/club.gif2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

BB checks, UTG bets, I call, BB folds.

2 to the turn for 4BB J /images/graemlins/spade.gif

UTG bets, I raise....( he calls of course).

I hardly ever use the semibluff turn raise because, frankly, it just rarely seems to work. Anyone like it in this spot?

[JinX11]

I like it more if you have a flush draw to go with it.... That said, I don't *dislike* it a whole bunch as an occasional change of pace. You have a lot of outs and folds do occasionally occur....

Maybe you've been active while at the table and he has you read as someone who is loose or bluffs too much...???

[brettbrettr]

"Why does no one fold to turn raises?"

This is a good thing. Just don't bluff the turn.

[krimson]

UTG is getting 1:7 on this call making it correct to draw with a lot of hands, so I wouldn't expect him to fold without a fight. If you're reading weakness you could follow this up with a river bluff. The pot will lay you 1:8 for a bluff and your hand so-far looks like a value extracting-line so you have some reasonable fold equity.

[Padawan Learner]

Brett:

[ QUOTE ]
This is a good thing. Just don't bluff the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. But every few thousand hands, I get a situation that looks very appealling to put in that kind of raise.....and then I am reminded why I have stopped making that raise.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
Brett:

[ QUOTE ]
This is a good thing. Just don't bluff the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. But every few thousand hands, I get a situation that looks very appealling to put in that kind of raise.....and then I am reminded why I have stopped making that raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're just using it on the wrong guy. I semi-bluff or straight bluff in 5/10 games. Not constantly. But sometimes. It doesn't always work. But it doesn't always not work either.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
every few thousand hands, I get a situation that looks very appealling to put in that kind of raise

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think this situation looks very appealing at all. What range did you put UTG on when he lead into you on the flop?

[Padawan Learner]

Crunchy:

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think this situation looks very appealing at all. What range did you put UTG on when he lead into you on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

AT,KT,QT,JT,T9,A6,99,88,77,66,TT, possible a two...maybe just a bluff at a low ragged flop. It is hard to put too tight a range on this guy after 20 hands.

Care to eloborate further...

[xniNja]

I'll make it with an open ended straight like the one you had, occasionally, but probably not in the situation shown.

If you were UTG, with virtually anything worthy of betting at that flop... why would a jack scare you on the turn? Looks like a fairly obvious semi-bluff to the straight or flush to me.

Edit: By the way.. look at the range of hands *you* put him on.. would you fold any of those to a raise on the turn?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Why does no one fold to turn raises?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because people raise the turn with King high.

[Padawan Learner]

xininja:

[ QUOTE ]
If you were UTG, with virtually anything worthy of betting at that flop... why would a jack scare you on the turn? Looks like a fairly obvious semi-bluff to the straight or flush to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would really depend on my opponent, but I would probably fold more than most posters (not saying I am right or wrong). It is my guess, that against that range of hands (which is probably not that accurate due to sample size), my opponent would not have to fold a better hand all that often at all to make this raise profitable.

Also, perhaps this raise is more transparent than I thought, so I may be wrong here. But I do believe my raise here has some credibility.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think this situation looks very appealing at all. What range did you put UTG on when he lead into you on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]
AT,KT,QT,JT,T9,A6,99,88,77,66,TT, possible a two...maybe just a bluff at a low ragged flop. It is hard to put too tight a range on this guy after 20 hands.
Care to eloborate further...

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes... so why would you want to raise the turn against this range?

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why does no one fold to turn raises?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because people raise the turn with King high.

[/ QUOTE ]

nh.

[Padawan Learner]

Crunch1:

[ QUOTE ]
Yes... so why would you want to raise the turn against this range?

[/ QUOTE ]

Semi-bluff. A detailed explanation is available in TOP.

[brettbrettr]

You need to reevaluate why you think your opponent will fold. If that's his range and he's not folding this turn then semi-bluffing is not the right move.

[Padawan Learner]

Brett:

[ QUOTE ]
You need to reevaluate why you think your opponent will fold. If that's his range and he's not folding this turn then semi-bluffing is not the right move.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps my post title is misleading. Raising this turn without any expectation of him folding is the height of stupidity. In my title, I was merely lamenting the fact that, on the very rare occassion I attempt a semi-bluff, my success rate is seems awful. Since perhaps i don't pick very good spots, I posted this one.

Hope that clarifies things a bit, Brett.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes... so why would you want to raise the turn against this range?

[/ QUOTE ]
Semi-bluff. A detailed explanation is available in TOP.

[/ QUOTE ]
<semi-sarcasm>And apparantly you need to re-read it! </semi-sarcasm>

A semi-bluff needs to have potential to fold your opponent as well as an opportunity for you to improve your hand on the remaining streets. Given the hand range you put your villian on - I think you can see which part of this equation you're missing.

[W. Deranged]

Padawan,

Think about the mathematics of semi-bluffing here:

With 8 outs to the nuts here and possible clean overcards, let's estimate your total number of outs at 10-12. So your chance of improving here will be between 22-26%. We'll use 24% for estimation.

Let's say your opponent will fold to the turn raise with frequency "f."

Then for the semi-bluff to be profitable you need to satisfy the following inequality (let p = pot size before your semi-bluff raise; namely, including the bet and your call on the turn but not the raise). We exclude the effect of implied odds and the possibility for villain to re-raise the turn. We also do not yet consider possibility hero hits a K or Q and loses.

f*p + (1-f)(.24p - .76) > .24p
.76f*p > .76(1-f)
f(p+1) > 1

In other words, your fold equity (f(p+1)) has to be greater than the cost of the bet. Given the pot size, opponent will be needing to fold here like 14-15% of the time for your play to be profitable.

So the question is not really one of "never." It should be one of "how often." Don't worry if your semi-bluffs seem to often not work... they're not supposed to. If you actually get the sense that they are "never" working (like < 10% of the time) then you should cut down on them.

[Padawan Learner]

Deranged:

[ QUOTE ]
Think about the mathematics of semi-bluffing here:

With 8 outs to the nuts here and possible clean overcards, let's estimate your total number of outs at 10-12. So your chance of improving here will be between 22-26%. We'll use 24% for estimation.

Let's say your opponent will fold to the turn raise with frequency "f."

Then for the semi-bluff to be profitable you need to satisfy the following inequality (let p = pot size before your semi-bluff raise; namely, including the bet and your call on the turn but not the raise). We exclude the effect of implied odds and the possibility for villain to re-raise the turn. We also do not yet consider possibility hero hits a K or Q and loses.

f*p + (1-f)(.24p - .76) > .24p
.76f*p > .76(1-f)
f(p+1) > 1

In other words, your fold equity (f(p+1)) has to be greater than the cost of the bet. Given the pot size, opponent will be needing to fold here like 14-15% of the time for your play to be profitable.

So the question is not really one of "never." It should be one of "how often." Don't worry if your semi-bluffs seem to often not work... they're not supposed to. If you actually get the sense that they are "never" working (like < 10% of the time) then you should cut down on them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent post...very helpful.

So, given my situation, you don't think he folds 15% of the time?

[W. Deranged]

The most important features in determining this "fold frequency" number are reads and board texture. Note the board here is pretty uncoordinated, and your opponent will not often fold a pair here. The J is not the most threatening turn card here, either, though it is nice that it's an overcard to the 10. Many opponents don't ever like folding flopped top pair.

[Padawan Learner]

Deranged:

[ QUOTE ]
Note the board here is pretty uncoordinated, and your opponent will not often fold a pair here

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually thought this gave my semi-bluff a bit more strength....as he may not have much to draw to if he thinks he is behind and might lend a bit more cedibility to my raise.

[ QUOTE ]
The J is not the most threatening turn card here, either, though it is nice that it's an overcard to the 10.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the flop were J high and the T turned, I think I don't make the raise.

Thanks for you input.

[avisco01]

[ QUOTE ]
"Why does no one fold to turn raises?"

This is a good thing. Just don't bluff the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends on the player you're up against. Heads up is an ideal time to try this. The question is, what type of player do you try this against? A thinking player may know that you're capable of bluff raising in this spot and 3-bet you, a poor player will almost certainly call. So who might fold? Maybe a rock? Not saying you were doing this, but sometimes fancy plays can get you into trouble. Most of the time solid, straightforward poker wins because most players are too unaware to get bluffed out of a pot, and if they're not, they're too AWARE to allow a bluff to work. I like the idea here, giving yourself two chances to win, but don't be surprised / upset when you get called.